The Arizona mirage

<div style="text-align: justify;">Spring Training has been traditionally described in two ways. For veterans who have established jobs, it is a time to get in shape, get repetitions in to get ready for the season. For everyone else, it is a time to compete for jobs, rotation spots and future consideration. The former description can happen anywhere. The outcomes do not matter. But for the latter, where the competition takes place has to be largely taken into consideration. If that place is in Arizona, evaluating that competition has to be difficult because Spring Training in Arizona inflates offense.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In 2012, the top three Spring Training offenses were the Seattle Mariners, the San Diego Padres and the Oakland Athletics. As most know, the Mariners finished dead last in offense once the regular season came to a conclusion. The Athletics came in third from the bottom and the Padres were 22nd out of 30 teams. Obviously, what happened in Spring Training in Arizona did not translate to the regular season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">You should also notice that all three of those teams play in pitcher friendly (and batter unfriendly) parks. The problem is that hitters are having fun in Arizona and then once they get to their home parks, what flew around the stadiums in Arizona are settling nicely into gloves once the seasons starts. There has to be some sort of mind blowing that happens there.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A quick look at the spring statistics this year shows that the top five offensive teams by team OPS are all teams that play their spring games in Arizona. The Royals are on top. The Mariners are again right up there in second. Then the White Sox, the Angels and the A's. This kind of production gets the fans in Kansas City and in Seattle all excited, of course. "We are going to hit this season!" But will they?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's take the Mariners as a microcosm of this Arizona phenomenon. The Mariners currently have nine batters who have had at least ten spring plate appearances with an OPS over 1.000. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=monteje01,monter002jes&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jesus Montero</a></strong>, for example, is batting over .400 with an OPS of 1.180. A year ago, his spring OPS was .923. Once the season started, he had trouble getting going and finished with an OPS of .685. Now personally, I believe Montero is a much better talent than that .685 finish of a year ago, but his Arizona numbers are highly inflationary.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoakju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Smoak</a></strong> has a spring OPS of 1.285! Last spring, he compiled an OPS of .966. So how can you get all excited by what Smoak is doing this spring when last year's spring success did not lead to anything during the season?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Now let's look at the same team's pitching. Pitchers who can miss bats will hold their own. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Felix Hernandez</a></strong> has decent stats this spring. Fire-ballers like Brandon Mauer blow people away. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loeka01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kameron Loe</a></strong> is having a good spring because he can miss bats. But pitchers that rely on contact are getting whacked at an alarming rate. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe Saunders</a></strong> is getting his head handed to him. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beavabl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Blake Beavan</a></strong> is getting blown up.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Joe Saunders has never been a great pitcher, but he has proven that he can at least get Major League batters out a league average number of times. If you are trying to evaluate whether Saunders should get a rotation spot, how do you do that based on his pitching in Arizona in the spring? Do you go by his history in the majors are by what is happening this spring?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I would love to see some people that are great with statistics to see what kind of lag there is with teams that train in Arizona for the first month or two of the season. I would bet that there is a direct correlation that can be proven between the giddy times of hitting in Arizona to the reality of hitting at the teams' regular home base once the season starts.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I would guess that teams that train in Florida have a much easier time to evaluate players than managers and GMs do in Arizona. I would love to see some statistically smart people do a study on this. It is for this same reason why teams sending young pitchers to the Arizona Fall League should do so with caution. These five teams that lead the majors in OPS this spring will be interesting to watch during the regular season. I would love to believe that the Mariners are going to hit better this season. But I'll believe it more when I see it. </div>

The Arizona mirage

Spring Training has been traditionally described in two ways. For veterans who have established jobs, it is a time to get in shape, get repe...

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Dustin, Justin and Jesús - ready to explode?

<div style="text-align: justify;">What happens when you trade a big chip for a can't miss prospect, a can't miss prospect for another can't miss prospect, and draft a guy first round and put all these hot prospects all in one lineup? Well, if you are the Seattle Mariners and their fans, you watched all three collectively flop in 2012. We, of course, are talking about <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ackledu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dustin Ackley</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoakju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Smoak</a></strong> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/monteje01.shtml" target="_blank"><b>Jesús Montero</b></a>.  None of the three topped the .300 mark in on-base percentage. And Smoak and <span style="text-align: start;">Montéro</span> finished below ground in the fWAR department. Can the trio reverse their fortunes in 2013?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Spring Training is such an illusion. The games don't count. Pitchers of every stripe are thrown out there to either get experience or just work on some pitches. Plus, a large number of teams, including the Mariners, now train in Arizona where the ball just sails through the hot, dry air making the offensive numbers dubious at best.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">All those disclaimers aside, it is very encouraging to see what Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesús Montéro are doing this spring. Smoak and Montéro are both batting .500 with half of their hits being of the extra base variety. Ackley is batting .400. Certainly, spring training is no predictor about regular season success. But success sometimes builds on itself and there is something to the group dynamic where success is contagious. Maybe we have something here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Consider also that Safeco Field is going to have <a href="http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/sea/ballpark/wall_dimensions.jsp" target="_blank">new dimensions</a> this year that could favor Smoak and Montero specifically and Ackley occasionally. Montéro hit .295 on the road last season and .227. Smoak hit 197 at home in 2012 and .235 on the road. Ackley had ten homers on the road and only two at home. Safeco definitely got into these players' heads. The differences in the dimensions are not drastically different. But they will be different enough to change the mindset.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Another thing to look at is BABIP. Dustin Ackley had a BABIP of .265 in 2012. Justin Smoak's BABIP was an insanely low .242. Even Montéro's .292 was a bit on the low side. Perhaps some of that is bad contact. But perhaps some of that is bad luck and bad approaches too. If all three just have league average BABIPs, there is will be vast improvement.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Dustin Ackley is a former first round draft pick. In his minor league career, he showed a far higher walk percentage and lower strikeout percentage than last year's numbers. He has good plate discipline and only swung at 24% of pitches outside the strike zone last season. His walk totals will improve and the strikeouts will come down. Knowing where he was drafted, Ackley will have every chance to turn things around.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Montéro was the big chip in the trade with the Yankees that cost them one of their best young arms. He will get every opportunity to turn things around too. With <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jasojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Jaso</a></strong> gone, Montéro is being depended on to catch, which is still quite the dicey proposition. But the gut here says that he is going to explode offensively a year removed from the shock of switching coastlines and leaving the only organization he had known.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Justin Smoak is probably on his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card and will need to either start showing what he can do or fade away into the sunset. He is only 25 and can still turn it around. If this spring is any indication, he looks like he's figured some things out.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Time will tell on these three. But, without being overly analytic here, all three could jell this season and make this a much more fun season for the long-suffering Mariner fans. </div>

Dustin, Justin and Jesús - ready to explode?

What happens when you trade a big chip for a can't miss prospect, a can't miss prospect for another can't miss prospect, and dra...

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