Ranking Joe Mauer among first basemen

<div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The Twins have seen enough of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> getting dinged and dented behind the plate and will make him the team's permanent first baseman. While most will lament that Mauer's extraordinary contract makes sense only if he is an elite catcher, the money is not the point here. It is better for the Twins to get some value for their money with Mauer at first for years than to see him ground into dust within two or three years behind the plate. The question being pondered today is: What kind of value will Mauer bring to first base?</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Fortunately, this is possible because over the years, Mauer has put in some time at first and has logged 471+ innings there. While the Twin City's star will lose his positional value as a catcher to one considered of little value at first, the extra playing time should close the gap pretty smartly.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Let's take a look at where he could stand around the Majors for first basemen. The starting point is defense.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">One site gives his his time at first a 2.6 runs above average which translates to 8.6 runs over the course of 150 games. Another site puts that number at 3 and 7. Where would that rank among the first basemen of last season? Would you believe that the higher number would have ranked him second and the lower number fourth?</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">If you add in the positional part of the equation, his overall fielding worth as a first baseman will end up somewhere between the -2.5 to -4.0 range. That sounds awful, but for first basemen, it is very good.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Let's move to base running. The two big sites have a discrepancy of two runs. One says that the last three years have been at -1 while the other says it is a plus one. Average them together and you basically get a league average base runner. Where does that put him among first basemen based on last year?</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Would you believe tied for fifth? Mauer has always been a great athlete and not your typical lead-pants catcher. Since first basemen are not known for their speed either, Mauer rates quite favorably.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Now everyone's favorite part--offense. If you throw out Mauer's first cup-of-coffee season and divide his batting runs above average by nine, Mauer has averaged 23.4 runs a season. But since he was mainly a catcher, he has averaged only 127 games a season.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Last season, Mauer compiled 25 runs (or 26 depending on the site) in only 113 games! With perhaps 150 games possible or more playing first base, would not 30 runs be a reasonable expectation? It could go higher. In 2012, Mauer played 147 games and compiled 31 runs. Thirty to thirty-five runs above average seems the sweet spot here.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">If we stick with the lower number, that would place Mauer sixth in the Majors among last year's first basemen. Out of thirty teams, that's pretty darned good.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">If you average the three skill sets together and do the division, Joe Mauer seems likely to finish as either the fourth or fifth best first basemen in baseball. If he has a really good and healthy season at the plate, he could end up as high as third.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Fourth seems the likely destination. Since two of the three projection systems I looked at for this piece have him at an estimated 5.5 WAR, then fourth seems very logical. And by the way, with the way a win is valued these days, that is a $26 to $28 million player and above his contract value ($23 million) for the season.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Pushing Joe Mauer to first base makes perfect sense for the Twins. He will still be the team's best player and they get to keep him in the lineup more often (barring some fluke injury). And contrary to all the naysayers, if Mauer hits like he always has or even slightly less, he will still earn his contract, first baseman or not.</div>

Ranking Joe Mauer among first basemen

The Twins have seen enough of  Joe Mauer  getting dinged and dented behind the plate and will make him the team's permanent first basema...

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Separate Mauer from the money

<div style="text-align: justify;">If you do a Google search on baseball's worst contracts and look them over, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong>'s name comes up a lot. Heck, even Head and Shoulders gave up on him. And the famous, "Well played, Mauer," commercial seems far in the past. All of that is because of the contract Mauer signed. And that happens a lot. You heard it when Beltran played for the Mets. You have heard it with Soriano with the Cubs. And yet, I always believe you cannot blame the player for the money he makes. And often times, that money obscures how good a player still is. Joe Mauer is still one of the best catchers in the game. It just does not feel like it because of the money.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Quick, who led the American League in on-base percentage last year? No, it was not Cabrera or Trout. It was Joe Mauer. Mauer also suffers because of the one year when he hit 28 homers (2009). We all know now that was a fluke much like the year <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boggswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wade Boggs</a></strong> hit that many homers with the Red Sox. But that did not mean that Boggs was a bust after that season, and neither is Joe Mauer.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Would you guess that Joe Mauer currently ranks second among catchers in the majors in fWAR according to Fangraphs.com's leaderboard? Would you guess that he is fourth in the American League in batting and third in on-base percentage? How about that he is sixth in wOBA and wRC+? The guy flat out rakes on a regular basis, but the picture is always clouded by the money.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Joe Mauer is only 30 years old. He has only played ten years. And yet he is already seventeenth among catchers all time in WAR. And he will be rising up that leaderboard quickly. I like to look at baseball-reference.com's way of parsing out a player's stats per 162 games. When they do that with Mauer, he averages 195 hits, 89 walks and 39 doubles.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He has already won three batting titles. He is a catcher. That just does not happen. And check out his lifetime triple slash line compared to this year:</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Lifetime: .323/.405/.469</li><li style="text-align: justify;">2013: .330/.412/.492</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;">First, you see the consistency. Then, you see that he is over his career numbers in all three. The guy is a stud. And here are two facts about that on-base percentage: First, his last two seasons have been over his career average. And secondly, he has more career walks than strikeouts. How many of today's players can say that?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And then there is the quality of his batted balls. Joe Mauer's line drive percentage this year is 28%! Wow. And that can hardly be called a fluke. Mauer has had a line drive rate over 22% in eight of his ten seasons. His career average is an incredible 23.4%.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I could go on and on. How about that he has thrown out 41% of base steal attempts this season? How about that he only has four passed balls in the last two seasons combined!?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Joe Mauer is judged by the money he makes and that is unfortunate. He will make $23 million a year until like forever. He was only worth $21.5 million last year. His season this year is already worth $15.5 million. The bum. Fault the Twins if you would like to fault anyone about his contract. But separate the player from the money and appreciate that Joe Mauer is one of the best catchers ever and is truly a special player by any of today's standards. </div>

Separate Mauer from the money

If you do a Google search on baseball's worst contracts and look them over, Joe Mauer 's name comes up a lot. Heck, even Head and S...

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My first ever roto draft and Joe Mauer

<div style="text-align: justify;">Thanks to my colleagues over at <a href="http://mlbdirt.com/" target="_blank">MLB Dirt</a>, I participated last night in my first ever mock draft. I had no strategy since I had no clue what I was doing and I never anticipated it would last three hours. But it was fun and it was a good exercise for a baseball writer because it forces you to think about players at different positions and make value judgements as to their relative worth. I picked Verlander first and Sabathia second. That meant that most of the great hitters were unavailable. So I picked the best of what was left in each of the next ten rounds or so. By the end, I was pretty happy with my team. The bonus of the whole thing is that I now have twenty-four stories I can write, one for each of my players. Today's inaugural entry is on <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I was able to pick Mauer very late in the draft. I think I got him in the sixth round or thereabouts. This just goes to show how far his stock with people has fallen since his MVP season in 2009. It is perhaps also a verdict at how low the Twins have fallen and nobody seems to pay any attention. But after looking at Joe Mauer's 2012 season with fresh eyes, what am I missing?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After all, the triple slash line is pretty darned impressive: .319/.416/.446. That was good for a 141 OPS+ in what has become a pitching era. His on-base percentage led the American League. We are not talking peanuts here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Another part of the fall in perceptions is that he doesn't just catch anymore. He caught 74 games, DHed 42 games and played first base another 30. And most people think his value lies only because he is a catcher. As if. The guy, no matter where he was playing, got on base 41.6 percent of the time! Baseball-reference.com valued his season at 4.1 rWAR. Fangraphs.com came in higher at 5.0. That is hardly invaluable. Others say his salary, which is huge, is only valid if he is a catcher. Well, maybe. But Fangraphs pegs his value last season at $22.5 million, just a slight hair under his $23 million salary.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I do not have any quibble with that though because of all the value he gave the Twins in those years before he was making big money. I know that's not the way the world works, but the way I think, if a player's overall career value is way above what he has made in his career, he has been worth every penny.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I have already mentioned his triple slash line for his 2012 season. His career line is now: .323/.405/.468. What we see in Joe Mauer is one of the best hitters of his generation. His season in 2009 was obviously an outlier. But it was in the same way that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boggswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wade Boggs</a></strong>' was in 1987. Few would not call Wade Boggs a Hall of Fame player. And right now, Mauer's career stats are very similar to Boggs. Oh Boggs will probably have a higher peak and Mauer still has to go through his regression years, but still. Joe Mauer has been fantastic.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Consider a couple of things. In today's strikeout happy baseball, Joe Mauer's career strikeout percentage at 10.4 is lower than his walk percentage of 12.3. And as far as the walk percentage, he is only getting better as his 14% in 2012 was the best of his career. For his career, Mauer has only swung at 20.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. For his career, he has swung and missed only 4.1 percent of the time. This is a remarkable hitter.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He is not going to hit 28 homers. So what? Put him on the Yankees and he is sung praises around the world. Put him on the Red Sox and he would be their best player and Nick Carfardo would have a good attitude.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Joe Mauer fell to me in a late round because he is an undervalued player. Because he plays for the Twins and because he doesn't wallop a bunch of homers, he isn't sexy? Because his hair always looks so nice, he has become a joke? Oh please. Just mark him down in 2013 for .320/.400/.450 because you know it is going to happen. He is one of the players of this generation people will talk about for a long time. </div>

My first ever roto draft and Joe Mauer

Thanks to my colleagues over at MLB Dirt , I participated last night in my first ever mock draft. I had no strategy since I had no clue what...

+ Read more »