The Orioles are leaking

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">General Managers are only as good as their team's performance in the past season. Dan Duquette was genius last season as the Orioles surprised everyone with blowing out the AL East and making it to the American League Championship Series. Duquette brought in pieces that worked perfectly such as <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cruzne02,cruzne01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cruzne02,cruzne01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nelson Cruz</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> and </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Andrew Miller</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;">. But so far this off season seems to show a general leaking of talent as Cruz, Miller and now </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Markakis</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> have been allowed to sign in greener pastures. Will the Orioles be one and done?</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Such a pronouncement in December with almost five months of the off season yet to come would be misguided. But the Orioles have allowed at least six wins of offense and two wins of relief pitching to head out the door. In the long run, these decisions may be wise as the total expense of those players long term might be painful. But in the short term, Orioles fans might be getting a little antsy.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Red Sox and Blue Jays have improved themselves greatly thus far--at least on paper. The Yankees have been spinning in place and the Rays seem in disarray (but with a still promising rotation). If you compare teams in the AL East, you have to look at the Orioles as an 89-win team after losing that talent. Can they make it up in other ways? Perhaps.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The team still has a strong core in <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adam Jones</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">J.J. Hardy</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisch02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisch02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Davis</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Wieters</a></strong>. There are questions marks among that group. Can Davis bounce back off a disappointing season and stay clean? How will Wieters respond after missing so much time with a rebuilt elbow? Can Machado's knees hold up or is this a chronic season to season thing? But let's, for now, assume that those folks will all contribute ably.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The starting staff will return all the same pitchers back into the mix even though <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norribu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norribu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Bud Norris</a></strong> has had his name rumored in trades all winter. They are not a great rotation, but with good defense, they get the job done. The loss of Miller will hurt, but the bullpen was pretty good before he even got there and that same cast is back for another season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">With that much stability (barring injuries), how can the production and play of Markakis and Cruz be made up?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Markakis is probably the easiest to replace. No knock on the guy as he has been a very good player for the Orioles. But his offense has only been about seven percent better than league average and that is not as hard to replace as you think. The most obvious answer seems to be <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alvare002dar&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alvare002dar&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dariel Alvarez</a></strong>, the Cuban refugee the O's signed in 2013. He has raked pretty consistently in the minors and while he is not that patient a hitter, he does hit enough to replace Markakis if his minor league play is an indication.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The only other minor league options such as <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=yastrz001mic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=yastrz001mic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Yastrzemski</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hart--001jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hart--001jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Josh Hart</a></strong> are still a year or two away.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Harder to replace is Nelson Cruz. While Cruz never saw a pitch he didn't like to swing at, his power is a high commodity in today's market. How do the Orioles close that gap? To me, expecting <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pearcst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pearcst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Steve Pearce</a></strong> to repeat his season last year also seems to be dicey. So that is a lot of power to replace.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's say that Wieters comes back as good as he was. That is a plus total of 17 homers over the five he hit last year before he was hurt. If Chris Davis can be somewhere between his monster 2013 and disappointing 2014, he could hit 35 homers and add seven more to the total. Platooning Davis with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkech02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkech02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Christian Walker</a></strong> might produce the same results with a better overall batting average.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I'm not sure <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schoojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schoojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jonathan Schoop</a></strong> will ever develop into an effective MLB hitter. His thirteen walks for all of 2014 are a red flag to me as it led to a .244 OBP. But he could add another six homers to his total of 14 last season. And add to that a bounce-back power year for J.J. Hardy who was way below his career yearly homer output last season could make up some more.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If all of that goes well, which, of course, is a big if, the Orioles could make up the power lost by Nelson Cruz. Whether they can overcome the lack of Cruz's presence in the lineup is a very big question.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Like I said, there is a lot of off season left to go and I'm sure Dan Duquette is not going to stand pat. Adding <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a></strong> or someone of that caliber might still be a possibility.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">But even if Duquette stands pat, as I have outlined, the Orioles might be okay as is. The core is still there. For the most part, a team built on defense and a winning attitude instilled by </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/showabu99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/showabu99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Buck Showalter</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> </span>could keep the Orioles in the mix. Only time will tell if this General Manager will go from hero to bum or whether he was shrewd to let those players walk when he did. I wouldn't count the Orioles out.</span></div>

The Orioles are leaking

General Managers are only as good as their team's performance in the past season. Dan Duquette was genius last season as the Orioles sur...

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Should Manny Machado ever be a shortstop?

<div style="text-align: justify;">Few of us who witnessed or saw on replay the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a></strong> injury in the latter part of 2013 will ever forget it. Legs simply are not supposed to go in the direction that ended his season as his was on the ground behind first base. It was gruesome. I thought of that scene recently when I heard some analyst state recently (I cannot remember who or where) that Manny Machado will some day be the Orioles' shortstop. Is that still a realistic possibility?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I went to do some reading on his injury and the surgery required to fix it. I think <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-espn-injury-expert-stephania-bell-on-manny-machados-surgery-and-recovery-20131014,0,3688068.story" target="_blank">this article</a> is pretty much the definitive reading resource. And after reading the piece, I did not come away with all kinds of warm fuzzies that Machado was going to be totally fine after his rehabilitation. The feeling I received was that Machado has an anatomical predisposition to having further kneecap problems. According to the article, this is Machado's second event and this time it took out the tendons with it.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It looks like he is in for a major rehab process and it sounds to me like mid-April is a somewhat safe guess on when he will be back. You do not have to worry about this year because <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">J.J. Hardy</a></strong> is signed through 2014 and will be a free agent in 2015. But what then? Do you really want to take this young talent, this former third overall pick in the draft and put him at further risk making pivots at second base with runners barreling into him all season long? Would not third base be a safer way to keep him as healthy as possible?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">2014 will also tell a lot about Machado's flexibility and maneuverability after he comes back to play. If he has the sure signs of losing some range of motion and loss of speed, then the decision might be made for the team. If that is the case, then the Orioles might want to think about extending Hardy or look for other options such as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=marin-000adr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adrian Marin</a></strong>, another kid from Miami like Machado who could make a similar early leap into the Majors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But let's look at this another way. What if Manny Machado comes back from his rehab perfectly fine and looks to be the same player he was before the injury? Why would you move him from third? According to both Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com, Machado just completed the second best fielding season ever for a third baseman. If you look at B-R's leaderboard for zone runs for a season, there his 2013 season sits sandwiched between <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=robinbr01,robins002bro&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brooks Robinson</a></strong>'s 1968 (the best ever) and the Hall of Fame player's 1967 season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In other words, nobody has played third base that well in 46 years! Why would you then move him? Because a shortstop is hypothetically more valuable to a team than a third baseman? I get the notion. And perhaps the lead guitarist in a band is the most valuable band member and perhaps Paul McCartney could have been that guy. Instead, McCartney became one of the best bass players in history. Maybe that analogy is a stretch, but it sort of makes my point here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whether the guy is playing short or third, if we already know that he can play third better than anyone else since Brooks Robinsion, it seems that you have found something you shouldn't mess with.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Ideally, you would like your third baseman to have some pop in the lineup. At least that is the prevalent theory. And I am not quite yet sold on Machado offensively. Machado has lost any sense of patience at the plate he displayed in the minors and his second half of 2013 was abysmal. He batted under .200 in two of his last three months with an OPS under .600 in those months.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But if you add up his season in total, his 51 doubles and 12 homers could turn someday soon into 31 doubles and 32 homers and then you have your ideal. Even so, most teams in baseball would have taken the offensive output that Machado put out in 2013 for their third basemen...like the Yankees for example.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Orioles and perhaps many baseball analysts still might look at Manny Machado as the Orioles' future shortstop. Such a notion seems too big a risk to him physically long term and illogical considering how valuable a third baseman he has become. Machado might some day play short for the Orioles, but that won't mean it will be the right call. </div>

Should Manny Machado ever be a shortstop?

Few of us who witnessed or saw on replay the Manny Machado injury in the latter part of 2013 will ever forget it. Legs simply are not supp...

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The Flagrant Fan's Gold Glove Award winners

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Gold Glove Award has been the most ridiculed award of them all. While I love <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a></strong>, the fact that he won any Gold Gloves is farcical. Perhaps this year will be better as a new rule in place gives 25% of the scoring based on statistics and the other 75% on coaches and managers who have better things in life to do than to study these things closely. There is a problem here, though, since many feel skittish on the fielding stats we currently have. At least it is a step in the right direction.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I have picked my own Gold Glove Award winners based on careful analysis. I am sure that I will get a few people mad at me. But hey, nobody ever said this was easy. Here we go:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Catching</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL:</b> This is tougher than anyone thinks. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martiru01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Russell Martin</a></strong> has had an unbelievable year. He has thrown out 40% of runners attempting to steal. His framing skills are off the charts. He caught 120 games. The only nagging point is that there were 50 wild pitches thrown with him back there. That's a lot! The other choice is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Yadier Molina</a></strong> who caught 131 games. He threw out 43% of base runners attempting to steal, had three passed balls compared to Martin's four. But he threw out 20 base steal attempts and Martin 36. Martin had 41 more total assists. Fangraphs gives Martin the edge. Baseball-reference.com gives it to Molina. With fear and trepidation, I am going with Russell Martin. But Molina will get the award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL:</b> The two choices are <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Wieters</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Salvador Perez</a></strong>. Perez had a better percentage throwing out base steal attempts and had one less passed ball and a few more assists. Perez had less passed balls and Wieters less errors. I am going with Salvador Perez. Wieters will get the award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>First base</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL</b>: This one is really close between <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rizzoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Anthony Rizzo</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Belt</a></strong>. I think Belt had a slow start in all phases of his season and that gives Rizzo the edge. I think Belt will win a bunch of them from here on out though. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adrian Gonzalez</a></strong> will win the award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL</b>: I was totally shocked when I went through all the numbers and this came out to a win for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Napoli</a></strong>. Mike Napoli!? Yup. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loneyja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">James Loney</a></strong> will probably win the award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Second base</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Phillips</a></strong> will win the award and I would not have any problem with him winning it. Nobody in the National League had more assists at second than Phillips and his range is still there. But <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barneda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Darwin Barney</a></strong> might have out-played him in the field this season with the Cubs. Barney's UZR is higher and he made five less errors. I am going with Barney.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL</b>: This one is easy: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dustin Pedroia</a></strong>. If the Rays would let <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zobribe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ben Zobrist</a></strong> play there every day, he might have competition. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brian Dozier</a></strong> also had a great season in the field and had more assists than any second baseman in baseball. But Pedroia is the easy call.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Shortstop</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL</b>: This one is easy. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a></strong> has the fifth best fielding season ever according to Baseball-reference.com. There is nobody in baseball that is close.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL</b>: This is a two-horse race with the unlikely names of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alcides Escobar</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobyu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Yunel Escobar</a></strong>. I give the edge to Alcides Escobar. Don't be surprised if <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">J.J. Hardy</a></strong> gets the award again though.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Third base</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a></strong> is the clear winner for me over <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frazito01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a></strong>. Arenado should get the nod from the coaches too. But I don't know if that is a guarantee.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a></strong> had a season for the ages at third base. Baseball-reference.com gives <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=robinbr01,robins002bro&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brooks Robinson</a></strong> the best season ever at 33 total zone runs. Machado had 31.5 this season. Amazing. Nobody else is in the picture.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Left Field</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL</b>: There is only one choice here: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martest01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Starling Marte</a></strong>. There is no one else. If he fails to win it, then farce would come to mind.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL</b>: If <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphda07.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">David Murphy</a></strong> had stayed in one place more, he would have given <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordoal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alex Gordon</a></strong> a run for his money. But Gordon is the choice and he will win the award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Center field</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>NL:</b> If <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/polloaj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">A.J. Pollock</a></strong> had played more, he would have been the choice. But since he did not play enough in my book, my pick is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gomezca01,gomez-006car,gomez-007car&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Carlos Gomez</a></strong>. Gomez should get the trophy, even if he doesn't get any votes from the Atlanta Braves. Heh.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>AL:</b> This is a three-horse race with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ellsbja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jacoby Ellsbury</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank"><u><strike>Denard Span</strike></u></a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martile01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Leonys Martin</a></strong>. Martin is out because of less innings than the others. But look out for him in the future. My pick goes to Ellsbury and he will get the trophy too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Right field</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">NL: The choices here are pretty clear in both leagues. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Gerardo Parra</a></strong> was the class of the National League with no real challenger.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">AL: The clear choice is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Shane Victorino</a></strong>. He had the best year of any right-fielder in either league.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Pitcher</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Oh forget it. Who cares.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That's it. Those are the Flagrant Fan's Gold Glove Award winners for 2013. </div>

The Flagrant Fan's Gold Glove Award winners

The Gold Glove Award has been the most ridiculed award of them all. While I love Derek Jeter , the fact that he won any Gold Gloves is farc...

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Simmons and Machado having historic fielding seasons

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a></strong> of the Atlanta Braves and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a></strong> of the Baltimore Orioles are both in their second seasons and first full seasons. Simmons is 23 and Machado is 21. And both are already the best fielders at their positions in baseball. In fact, the seasons they are having in the field are downright historic.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We all know that fielding statistics are not yet perfect. As such, it is really impossible to definitively state where the fielding seasons Machado and Simmons are having fit into the all time lexicon at their positions. But these statistics are all we have at the moment and if what we have is anywhere close to being accurate, then these two young players are sizzling at what they do.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And their seasons pass the eye test too. Watching them play is a treat day in and day out and they make the difficult seem routine and the impossible happen on a weekly basis. But flashy is one thing. To remain consistently awesome in the field is another and both have done that.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In recent years, the defensive runs saved has become just as big of the winning equation as pitching and hitting. Winning games is about scoring more runs than your opponent. In order to do so, the team has to hit to score runs and it has to pitch to prevent them plus field the ball well to prevent runs on balls in play. As such it is the runs prevented that is the focus on looking at Simmons and Machado.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And that is where the history comes in. Again, knowing the statistic is not perfect, Baseball-reference.com lists the greatest seasons in a statistic they call Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average. I know that is a mouthful. But bear with me. Andrelton Simmons is currently listed at 25 Total Zone Runs according to that statistic. Without playing another game, Simmons' season already ranks tied for twelfth all-time according to Baseball-reference.com.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Those ahead of him include four seasons for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belanma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Belanger</a></strong>, two by Ron Hanson, and one each by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Rey Sanchez</a>, Rey Ordonez,</strong> <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithoz01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ozzie Smith</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guilloz01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ozzie Guillen</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/everead01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Everett</a></strong>. Everett's 2006 season at 40 runs saved above average is the all-time leader.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Simmons has played 114 of the Braves 119 games. The same site projects Simmons to finish at 30 Total Zone Runs for the season. That seems modest and would mean Simmons' season would rank fifth all time. Fifth! But if you divide Simmons 25 Total Zone Runs by his 114 games and then multiplied that by the perhaps 40 games he has left, he could conceivably reach 33 Total Zone Runs and that would rank his season third all time and tied with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ordonre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Rey Ordonez</a></strong>'s season in 1999.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That is pretty amazing. Simmons also has a chance to reach 500 assists this season. Now if only his bat would come alive, it would match the great defensive season Simmons is having. Just for comparison, Fangraphs.com has him at 20.6 runs above average. No other shortstop in the game has more than 9.2. Amazing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Then there is Machado. If Machado's season were to end right now, his 24 Total Zone Runs Above Average would place his season as tied for the fifteenth best season ever. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=robinbr01,robins002bro&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brooks Robinson</a></strong>'s 33 is the top number ever. Names in front of Machado read like the Who's Who among the great third basemen of history: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nettlgr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Graig Nettles</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellbu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Buddy Bell</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/venturo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robin Ventura</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boyercl02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clete Boyer</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriau01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Aurelio Rodriguez</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Scott Rolen</a></strong>. That is some heady company.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">B-R projects that Machado will finish at 28 Total Zone Runs which would tie him at eighth all time. Again, that seems conservative. Again, if you do the math of 24 divided by his 118 games played and then multiply that result times the 43 games he has left (he plays every day), then Brooks Robinson at the top two spots is within reach. Remarkable.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fangraphs also has Machado on top for third basemen this season at a more conservative 21.3. The spread between he and the second and third place peers is not as dramatic as Simmons'. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Nolan Arenado</a></strong> is listed at 16.3 and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a></strong> at 13.8.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fielding statistics are not as highly regarded for accurately as what we have for batters and pitchers. But based on what we see and what we do have for statistics, Manny Machado and Adrelton Simmons are having historic fielding seasons and a big reason for their respective team success. </div>

Simmons and Machado having historic fielding seasons

Andrelton Simmons of the Atlanta Braves and Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles are both in their second seasons and first full seaso...

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2013 projections for Manny Machado are too conservative

<div style="text-align: justify;">The leap is way too large to consider that the Baltimore Orioles went 33-18 once <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a></strong> made the leap to the Major Leagues at the age of twenty last season. One player doesn't a .647 winning percentage down that stretch make. But it makes for a nice theory. After all, the third base position went from the worst fielding position in the majors to a savings of four and a half to seven runs (depending on the site) over the last 51 games.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I don't really know what the Fans Scouting Report is on Facebook player pages. But I do know that  I love what I see there. I normally see ratings in the 60s for most players in at least a few of the categories rated there. But not for Manny Machado. His scores showed a 73 for instincts, a 72 for first step, a 62 for speed (okay, he's not fast), a 73 for hands, a 78 for the quickness of his release, an 86 for arm strength and a 72 for accuracy. Sure, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a></strong> beats him in all those categories (except the speed thing). But we're talking a really good third baseman here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And yet the projections all give him anywhere for his defense from 2.3 to 7 runs above average for his fielding in 2013. Will he really flatten out that much over the course of a full season? I really don't think so. I think what you are going to see is ten runs above average making the combination of he and Hardy one of the best left sides of an infield in baseball.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The projections for his offense are even more conservative. For example, Machado finished with a .183 ISO for his 51 games in 2012. And this was for a kid that went from Double-A to the majors at a young age. The highest ISO projection has him at .173. Most have him in the .150s to .160s. I don't see it. His home run to fly ball percentage was 11.7 percent and that is a pretty healthy rate. Combine that with an unusually low line drive percentage south of 14% in 2012 and it would seem that his line drive percentage will go up leading to more doubles and triples and if his home run production stays the same, that should organically mean an ISO of at least what he did last season. I believe it will be higher.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Machado did not exactly set the world on fire with his offense in his 51 games. His triple slash line was .262/.294/.445. Yeah, that's not setting cannons off or anything. But he was twenty years old! His OPS was .739. The projections for his 2013 set his range from .698 to a high of .752. I can't see it. For one thing, his walk percentage of only 4.2% in those 51 games is deceiving compared to his plate discipline numbers. For a young kid, he only swung at 29% of pitches out of the strike zone. And his walk percentage was always at least double that in all of his minor league stops.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I understand that projection systems are by nature conservative and based on numbers plugged into the computer and what the expectation of outcomes spit out based on all factors. And I am not saying that they are all wrong because my eyes tell me that the guy just looks like a great ballplayer.  I just think Manny Machado is going to continue to grow as a major league player. He has a great manager for bringing his talent along. My prediction (I'm not smart enough to project) is that he will improve on his 2012 start to his career and will be a five WAR player in 2013. Those who project for a living go from 1.2 WARP (BP) to a high of 3.7. I think he will top that easily. </div>

2013 projections for Manny Machado are too conservative

The leap is way too large to consider that the Baltimore Orioles went 33-18 once Manny Machado made the leap to the Major Leagues at the a...

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