Rickie Weeks, Mariners?

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Rickie Weeks</a></strong> just signed a $2 million deal with the Seattle Mariners who happen to already have a second baseman named <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #ff4b33; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a></strong>. The deal is a pay cut for Weeks to the tune of 82%. Ouch. It doesn't seem that long ago that Rickie Weeks was an All Star and seemed to be one of the most dynamic players in the game. What the heck happened?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The timing of Week's descent from All Star to mediocre was not great for the Milwaukee Brewers. They based their 2012, three-year, $31 million contract for Weeks based on his five-year run beginning in 2007 of averaging 3.12 WAR a season with good pop, high on-base, stolen base and decent fielding skills. That contract was a bust in just about every way.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Beginning in 2009, Weeks had a three-year run of scoring a 120+ wOBA a season. 2010 was a particularly productive and break out season in which Weeks compiled over 300 total bases and got on base 276 times. Both were career highs as were his home runs, RBIs and runs scored that season. He led the league in getting hit by pitches in 2010 for the second time in his career.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Weeks missed about a third of the following season of 2011 but still scored in the same ranges in the time he did play. Thus, it might have seemed reasonable for the Brewers to extend the deal they made to their second baseman. It just didn't work out that way.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 2012, the first year of the deal, Weeks played a full season and compiled 677 plate appearances. But his OPS dropped 90 points and his wRC+ dropped 27 points. According to the numbers, his defense also totally crapped out.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 2010, Weeks was rated the second most valuable second baseman in baseball behind only Cano. In 2012, he was only the 20th best. But it would get worse...much worse.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Weeks started 2013 badly. He had a .615 OPS for April. It was even worse at .506 in May. He had a great June and seemed to be back to himself. But in July, he plummeted to .582. On August 8, mercifully, he was shut down for the rest of the season for a hamstring injury for which he had surgery and did not play again the rest of the season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For 2013, in 399 plate appearances, he compiled a woeful triple slash line of: .209/.306/.357. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gennesc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gennesc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Scooter Gennett</a></strong> finished out the season for the Brewers at second base and come on gangbusters (cliche alert) and was named the starting second baseman for the Brewers for 2014. Weeks was now a pretty expensive bench player.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The funny thing is, Rickie Weeks' bat bounced back. He played 57 times at second base and compiled an .861 OPS as a starter there. He also pinch hit 56 times with less success and DHed twice. But otherwise, he was no longer in the Brewers' plans. Add in the fact that his fielding was still abominable.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Since he played in only 104 games in 2013 and only 121 in 2014, he did not reach the totals necessary for his option for 2015 to kick in automatically. His Brewers days were over.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How are the Mariners going to use him? Obviously, they already have a VERY expensive second baseman on board. Weeks has never played a position other than second base in his entire MLB and MiLB career. Can he suddenly play the outfield? Will he be tried at third? First? It seems a rather strange signing.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Then again, if Weeks is back offensively, he is a right-handed batter and the Mariners have needed that in their lineup. Will he be the DH? It is hard to say what the M's are thinking when signing Weeks.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It might be a good thing for Weeks to learn a new position and rebuild his value. His annual salary took a beating and his former team gave up on him. Those two things can be highly motivational. The things we do know are that Weeks might not be done as a hitter but is quite done as a viable second baseman. The Mariners could still make that work and turn this head scratching into something none of us would have thought about.</span></div>

Rickie Weeks, Mariners?

Rickie Weeks  just signed a $2 million deal with the Seattle Mariners who happen to already have a second baseman named  Robinson Cano . The...

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Zach Duke of Earl is a pearl

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One of the amazing surprises of the year for me has been the success of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dukeza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dukeza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Zach Duke</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;">. After all, for so many years as a starter in the early part of this millennium, Duke came to symbolize everything that was wrong with the (then) perennial losing Pittsburgh Pirates. After a successful rookie season, he quickly sank into a slot of one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. And here he is reinvented as one of the most solid relief pitchers in baseball.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's look at Duke's amazing numbers this season. He has vultured four wins in relief against no losses. He has a 1.94 ERA with a 2.24 FIP and 2.10 xFIP. His ground ball rate is the highest of his career at 55.7% and he is striking out 11.65 batters per nine innings.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That last statistic is the most amazing of all. If you prefer strikeout percentage, he is sitting at 32.3%. His career average is 12.7%. His career K/9 rate is 4.97. His strikeout to walk rate is 4.29 compared to a career average of 2.02. Who is this guy and what have you done with the real Zach Duke!?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Here is a guy who has pitched for four different organizations in the past four seasons and during that time was released twice. This is the same guy who came into this season with a 50-76 career record with a 1.470 WHIP. His average game score as a starter was 46 when fifty was average. Of all his starts, only 50% were quality starts. What happened here?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Reds have to be given credit in 2013 for turning Duke permanently into a relief pitcher. The Nationals had him earlier than that and used him as a starter in the minors and then gave him a few relief appearances in the Majors. But the Reds, once they acquired him, put him in the bullpen permanently. And it has made all the difference.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Also different is how Duke pitches. He has completely ditched the four-seam fastball that was a staple of his repertoire. He only throws fastballs 50% of the time and most of those are two-seamers. Almost 49% of his pitches are a combination of curves and sliders and he has a positive value on the two-seam, slider and curve this season. His fastball has picked up a mile per hour over his past seasons. Significant but still only an 89.4 MPH heater.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What has really helped Duke is that 61.3% of his first pitches are strikes. Getting ahead in the count has really helped and his swinging strike rate has gone up to the highest rate of his career.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Sure, he is sort of a LOOGY. He has pitched 45.1 innings in 55 outings. But he has actually pitched to more right-handed batters (103) than he has lefty swingers (83). And his success rate against either is terrific. Right-handed batters have only a .581 OPS against him and lefty swingers, .552.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Zach Duke has gone from a pitcher of derision to someone that manager, </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roeniro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roeniro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ron Roenicke</a></strong>, has 100% confidence in. Duke's resurgence as a relief pitcher after a bumpy career as a starter has been one of the really fun stories of 2014 and is one of those little reasons why we love this game so much.</span></div>

Zach Duke of Earl is a pearl

One of the amazing surprises of the year for me has been the success of  Zach Duke . After all, for so many years as a starter in the early ...

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Ryan Braun's confession refreshing

<div style="text-align: justify;">I do not know if <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a></strong> is telling the <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130822&content_id=57973458&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb" target="_blank">entire truth</a>. On the surface, it seems rather dubious that his use was only that small window of time that he mentions in 2011. After all, we have heard the same thing from A-Rod and perhaps we cannot be convinced to believe anything at this point. But his level of contriteness and accepting the full blame for his actions was a bit refreshing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In his statement listed in the linked article above, Braun outlines why he lied and when he lied. He makes an honest attempt to write about why his first reaction was the wrong one and that he compounded the problem by not being honest at the time. He apologizes to the man he smeared who handled his original tainted test.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We have heard a lot of apologies over the years, not just from baseball's PED users, but in politics and in business life. They all seem to be veiled in carefully considered words that deflect as much blame as possible. But this one seems a bit different. Ryan Braun has the sound (in his statement) of a contrite man who has a lot to apologize for and does not hide from doing so.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The statement gives hope that his overwhelming hubris and the over-arching pride--that comes from being gifted in a sport that grants entitlement from being very good at something that pays so well--will lead to personal growth for him in the future. His reputation is already tarnished. But he has a lot of life to live ahead of him and humility is a good start for the future.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I do not personally care what he did to his body. I have always maintained as much. But I hate, hate, hate dishonesty and that Nixon-like disease when people cannot admit they were wrong even when caught red-handed. We saw it with Bill Clinton. We have seen it a thousand times over the years. I hate that Braun was so self-righteous when he was guilty all along.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To release a statement that was so introspective was refreshing. It puts a little humanity back in how I view the man. I can at least understand a bit of the reasons he did what he did even if I wish he had not done them. With Braun, I hated the stance he took when caught much more than for what he was caught. His statement does not tear down that hate at his action and the bitterness that resulted. But it does knock quite a few bricks out of that wall.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I just hope that he was not lying about when he used and for how long. That would suck if we found out differently. It is the only part of the statement that gives me pause. But his level of humility and his total acceptance of his sins as his fault goes a long way in forgiving him. Forgiveness is the most powerful tool in the universe. Perhaps we have been given an opportunity to begin that process with Ryan Braun. </div>

Ryan Braun's confession refreshing

I do not know if Ryan Braun is telling the entire truth . On the surface, it seems rather dubious that his use was only that small window ...

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Who is Jean Segura and what is he doing on my leaderboard?

<div style="text-align: justify;">Fangraphs.com's leaderboard is always a fascinating place. If you keep track of players from year to year, surprises show up there before they do in the national consciousness. Headley of the Padres was last year's big surprise. Recently, upon scouring the list, the name, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jean Segura</a></strong>, popped up. And while I should know every player in baseball since writing about the sport is what I do, Segura was an unknown to me. Who the heck is this guy and what is he doing tied for sixth among all position players in value?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One of my weak areas is keeping track of prospects. Guys like Craig Wieczorkiewicz (@mwltravelor) and Mike Schwartze (@Mike_Schwartze) as follows on Twitter help me get better at it, but it is still my weakness. As such, there was probably no way that I would have seen Jean Segura on Baseball America's top prospect list the last two years (55th and 57th). I would not have known that he was a free agent signing by the Angels way back in 2007 when he was only seventeen years old (Dominican Republic) and toiled in the minors for six seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His .807 OPS in the minors is not eye-popping. But those numbers did include a good batting average, little plate patience, decent pop and good stolen base possibilities.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And I probably would not have noticed that Segura was part of the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong> trade that sent Greinke to the Angels and Segura as the best of the three players to go back to the Brewers. The Angels should have sent somebody else. Between Angels' shortstops, Harris and Aybar, they have totaled -0.3 in WAR this season. Jean Segura has already been worth 2.1 fWAR (2.2 rWAR) this season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Thus, Jean Segura has been a bright spot in the otherwise dismal (last place) season the Brewers are having thus far in 2013. Segura's numbers are eye-popping now. His triple slash line is: .349/.392/.575 are very pretty. The slugging percentage is the most surprising. With six doubles, two triples and seven homers, Segura has already driven in eighteen runs and scored twenty-two. Add in his thirteen stolen bases out of fifteen attempts and some fantasy baseball player is probably hugging him or herself with making that selection earlier in the season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Plus, Segura plays a prime position at shortstop and is showing above average range and above average reliability making the plays. And the best part is that he is only 23 years old.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Will Segura regress during the season? Well, sure. He is not going to hit .349. His BABIP sits currently at .373. He does not walk enough. Projections showing regression here too as thus far, his percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone are down from his cups of coffee last year. I do not think his walk rate will regress as much as the projections are stating.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The power (His ISO sits at .226) has to regress. The most homers he ever hit in the minors was ten and his current seven already match his tops from the last two seasons. There is no way his home run to fly ball ratio is going to stay at the twenty percent level. But with his speed, the doubles and triple can keep coming.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Segura hits a lot of ground balls. His line drive percentage is driving his average right now at 20.3%. But his 1.88 ground ball to fly ball ratio will force the average to come down a bit if his line drive rate does not sustain itself. Of course, his speed still makes those ground balls a factor.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Jean Segura is currently the most valuable shortstop in baseball and the sixth highest position player overall. While I cannot see those placements maintaining themselves, there is no reason not to believe that Jean Segura should not finish with at least a four WAR season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The poor Angels are scuffling along and their farm system is considered toast. Jean Segura is one that got away. From the Brewers' perspective, this is the kind of deal you make when making a trade deadline deal. Now I will know who Jean Segura is and if he plays like this, more people will know too. If he is not on the All Star ballot, write him in. </div>

Who is Jean Segura and what is he doing on my leaderboard?

Fangraphs.com's leaderboard is always a fascinating place. If you keep track of players from year to year, surprises show up there befor...

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Norichika Aoki - regression candidate?

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Milwaukee Brewers caught a nice surprise in 2012 when <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aokino01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Norichika Aoki</a></strong> turned in a 2.9 fWAR season and ended up compiling 588 plate appearances in 151 games. There are a lot of nice elements in his numbers as we shall see. With only one year in the Major Leagues (in this country), can he repeat those numbers? Only ZiPS doesn't think so. All the other projection systems think he will improve further. Let's take a closer look and see which system is going to be correct..</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">First of all, ZiPS does not believe in Aoki's 2012 power numbers. For a fairly small guy, Aoki racked up 37 doubles, four triples and ten homers. His .433 slugging percentage and .144 ISO had to be a surprise. ZiPS isn't the only one who thinks his power numbers will slip. But ZiPS is the most aggressive in his projected fall. The only natural place to look is to see what Aoki did in Japan.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And the numbers in Japan show us that what he did in 2012 with power numbers for Milwaukee look sustainable. His number of doubles was right in line with his production in Japan and if anything, his ten homers were somewhat less than his normal Japan production. My conclusion then is that his ISO should remain in the same ballpark as what he did in 2012 with a possible chance of it being slightly higher.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But power is only a part of the OPS and wOBA categories. Aoki would need to maintain his batting average and on-base percentage. The one thing that helps Aoki is that he nearly always makes contact. He only swung and missed on 4.6% of the pitches he saw in 2012. That is a very low number. And his plate discipline seems stable as he swung at only 27% of pitches out of the strike zone. So he'll make contact and he should walk fifty or so times this season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The type of contact he makes concerns me a bit. Aoki hits a lot of ground balls. In fact he hit exactly twice as many ground balls as he hit fly balls. Only fifteen players in the majors had a higher ground ball to fly ball ratio than Aoki did. And of those fifteen, none had a lower line drive percentage than Aoki. And yet, Aoki's batting average on ground balls (and BABIP, of course) was .290.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I'm not saying it is impossible to bat .290 on ground balls. Jeter and Suzuki have been making a living doing that for years. But it is not the norm. As I have stated here before, the league average for ground balls is .238. That is the norm. Jeter and Suzuki have beat the norm for years and years. Is Aoki one of those guys too? Time will tell.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I'm not quite sure what to make of Aoki in the outfield. The scouting reports are that Aoki has a weak arm. And yet, he had seven assists from right field last season. Right field seemed to be his best position in 2012 and the only one that garnered him positive numbers of the three outfield positions he played. But a weak armed right-fielder doesn't make sense unless he keeps throwing guys out, right?  He is best in a corner position and is really not a center fielder. But his batting game is more like a center fielder or a second baseman type. So he really doesn't fit.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Norichika Aoki will be a big part of whether the Brewers compete in 2013 or not. If he has the kind of year he did in 2012 with his 30 steals in 38 attempts and his ability to get on base at a .350 or higher clip, he will aid that team's cause greatly. But if he cannot sustain his BABIP on ground balls, then he could fall down to the .260 and .270 range in batting average and that will drag off most of what he brought to the table last season. After weighing it all together, my conclusion is that Aoki is a regression candidate and is 31 years old. We'll have to see how it plays out for the Brewers. </div>

Norichika Aoki - regression candidate?

The Milwaukee Brewers caught a nice surprise in 2012 when Norichika Aoki turned in a 2.9 fWAR season and ended up compiling 588 plate appe...

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Is LOOGY, Mike Gonazlez, worth $2.25 million?

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Milwaukee Brewers improved their bullpen this week with<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/brewers-agree-to-sign-mike-gonzalez.html" target="_blank"> the addition</a> of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=gonzami02,gonzami01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Gonzalez</a></strong>. Yes, he is one of those left-handed specialists that is able to pitch in Major League Baseball well into their nineties. The deal calls for Gonzalez to get $2.25 million with incentives. Gonzalez will be 35 in May and has pitched for the Pirates, Braves, Orioles, Rangers and Nationals. Gonzalez pitched to a grand total of 151 batters last season in just under 36 innings. Doesn't that seem like a lot of money for so little pitching?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you go by the WAR proposition, Gonzalez was worth 0.5 fWAR in 2012 which makes him slightly overpaid based on WAR. But relievers really cannot be judged by WAR like other players. But it just seems funny that the guy will be paid $14,900 per batter if he has the exact same season in 2013. Just for comparison, if Kershaw pitches his normal season, he will get paid about $12,200 per batter in 2013. Gonzalez is worth more per batter than Kershaw? You wouldn't think so. But then again, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=leecl02,leecl01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Cliff Lee</a></strong> made about $32,000 per batter last year, so there is always that.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Gonzalez is the lefty who comes out of the bullpen to get lefty batters out. He has been doing it since 2003. And he has been good at it. For his career, Gonzalez has faced 591 lefty batters (which still doesn't seem like much) and has allowed a slash line of .206/.278/.327. Yeah, that's pretty darned effective. His career against right handed batters has a .674 OPS against and that is nothing to sneeze at either. He has faced 1,076 of those.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Gonzalez has lost a mile off of his fastball velocity and two miles per hour off of his slider since his younger days and he is no longer quite as effective against right handed batters. But he still gasses those lefties. They had a .566 OPS against him and a .240 wOBA. Woof. That is futility he is causing right there. But there is something else to consider about Gonzalez. If you need a big out, he will give it to you.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In high leverage situations, Gonzalez allowed a .578 OPS. With men on base, he allowed a .472 OPS. With runners in scoring position, he allowed a .536 OPS. That is impressive. And those numbers are only slightly lower than his career numbers in those same situations.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Consider also that Gonzalez has had positive WPA figures in every season he has pitched except the first one when he was up getting a cup of coffee. His clutch number is well into the positive as well.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It will always be difficult to justify in the mind a value of a LOOGY that on many occasions will only pitch to one batter in a game. But some pitchers are better at it than others and Gonzalez is one of those. And when you also consider the circus that was the Brewers' bullpen in 2012, you can understand that team wanting a pitcher with a proven formula for getting guys out. </div>

Is LOOGY, Mike Gonazlez, worth $2.25 million?

The Milwaukee Brewers improved their bullpen this week with the addition of Mike Gonzalez . Yes, he is one of those left-handed specialis...

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Aramis Ramirez's quietly great season

<div style="text-align: justify;">You know the old bit about if a tree falls in the woods? The same thing holds true for baseball. If a player plays great for a team out of contention, does anyone notice? Well, perhaps fantasy baseball players notice. But it is safe to say that this Fan has not noticed what a fine season <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirar01.shtml" target="_blank">Aramis Ramirez</a></b> is having for the Milwaukee Brewers. His season would probably still be beyond notice here if it wasn't for a tweet by Larry Granillo last night on Twitter. Granillo (@wezen_ball) pointed out that Ramirez was an easy push to go beyond fifty doubles this season. That fact makes one sit up and take notice.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you were to give a quick quiz and ask which Brewer has the most extra base hits, most would say Braun. And true enough, Braun leads the team with 35 homers and his .600 slugging percentage leads the team too. But Aramis Ramirez leads the Brewers with 65 extra base hits. He has hit an amazing 43 doubles, two triples and twenty homers. His 65 extra base hits make up nearly half of his 133 hits for the season. His 532 slugging percentage is his highest since 2007 and his .890 OPS is his highest since his 2009 season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Where did this come from? Maybe it sneaked up on this writer because Ramirez was pretty pitiful at the start of the season. He finished April with a .645 OPS. By May 19, he still had a .658 OPS. But he started hitting after that. He finished May strong and and his OPS for both June and July were over one. He has cooled off only slightly and has put up a .924 OPS in August. But that is still excellent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fielding metrics also show Ramirez to be having an excellent year at third base too. Fangraphs rates his season as tied for fourth best (with Beltre) for the most valuable third basemen in baseball this season. Only Wright, Cabrera and Headley are ahead of him. And if he was a better base runner, he would be scoring even higher. Fangraphs has him at 4.7 fWAR for the season. Baseball-reference.com has him at 3.8. Both are excellent. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If we go by Fangraphs' valuation, Ramirez's play has been worth $21 million this season. That is making the Brewers look pretty smart considering his back loaded deal nets him only $6 million in 2012. The contract tops out at $16 million in 2014 with a mutual option in 2015. But say the Brewers decline that option in 2015, then the Brewers are well on their way to getting the kind of value in Ramirez they paid for.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So again, why has this all gone so unnoticed? A lot has to do with the fact that the Brewers had losing months in April, May, June and July as their bullpen crashed and burned and took them well out of contention.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Some of the lack of notice is also that a lot of his damage has come at home. Ramirez's home/road splits are pretty dramatic. His OPS at home in 61 games is .966. On the road is a different story. His road OPS is only .774. That is a 192 point swing and is significant. All of his batted ball and plate discipline stats are pretty consistent with his career numbers. The little bump over his recent seasons seems to be from enjoying Miller Park.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But no matter, teams are smart if they sign players who can take advantage of their confines. And Aramis Ramirez has given the Brewers everything they could have hoped when they signed him. Ramirez has quietly put together a great season. A few more close to this one and we could start seeing a HOF argument. To be sure, fantasy baseball players have noticed and Brewers fans have noticed and have come to appreciate their new third baseman.</div>

Aramis Ramirez's quietly great season

You know the old bit about if a tree falls in the woods? The same thing holds true for baseball. If a player plays great for a team out of c...

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Mark Rogers might win...some day

<div style="text-align: justify;"><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rogerma01.shtml" target="_blank">Mark Rogers</a></b> of the Milwaukee Brewers is not a very lucky fellow. And that is unfortunate because he is from this great state of Maine and Maine is not exactly brimming with baseball success stories. And so it was pretty darned exciting when a kid who went to Mount Ararat High School in Topsham, Maine was the fifth overall selection in the first round of the 2004 draft. He had big strikeout numbers early in his years in the minors and made Baseball America's Top 100 prospects in 2005 and 2006. But he also walked a lot of people and did not progress quickly. And then he hurt his shoulder.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The injury was in 2006 and he had surgery to repair a torn labrum. A year later, he had to have another surgery to remove scar tissue from the first surgery. He finally got back in action in 2009 and seemed headed in the right direction as he had a good first year back. He also did well enough in 2010 that the Brewers called him up for his major league debut.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Rogers made four appearances in 2010 for a total of ten innings including one start that lasted five innings. Rogers pitched well. He struck out eleven batters and walked only two and allowed only two hits. He was on his way, right? Not exactly.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">2011 was not a good year for Mark Rogers. His pitching was brutal and he went 0-5 in several levels. He pitched several levels because he had a drug suspension for stimulants thrown in the mix. For once, the 0-5 record was not mere bad luck. He earned that record. But that doesn't hold true for the rest of his minor league career. Rogers has pitched to the tune of a 4.70 ERA in the minors. No, that's not great. But it's not bad enough to compile the 16-36 record (.306 winning percentage). A record that bad requires some bad luck.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Rogers was pitching fairly well in Triple-A in 2012. For once, his record wasn't that bad at 6-6. He no longer struck out a lot of people and the high walk rate was still there. But he was 6-6. Then the Brewers traded Zack Greinke and Rogers got the call to the majors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Rogers has now made four starts in the big leagues this season. He should have won three of them. He has not won any of them. On his first start on July 29, he had to face the Nationals. Have fun with that one, kid. And he did. He pitched five and two-thirds innings and gave up only two runs and struck out seven against only one walk. He left the game with a 3-2 lead. The Brewers would stretch that lead to 4-2 in the bottom of the sixth. But then it happened.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Brewers' bullpen gave up eight runs and lost 11-10. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In Rogers' second start, he faced the Cardinals. The poor kid was thrown into the mixing bowl in those first two starts, no? The Cards got to Rogers for five runs in five innings of work and though he struck out five and walked only one, Rogers gave up three extra base hits and earned the loss.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In Rogers' third start, he pitched brilliantly, albeit against the Astros. But still. He pitched seven innings and only gave up one run on three hits and two walks. He struck out eight. The Brewers were leading, 3-1 when Rogers left the game. Francisco Rodriguez gave up a run in the eighth to make it 3-2. And then a gaffe by Carlos Gomez in the field and another blown save by John Axford plated two Astros runs to lose the game for the Brewers in walk-off fashion. Rogers was again denied his first big league win.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Then he pitched just last night against the Rockies. Considering the game was in Coors Field and scoring is relative, Rogers pitched well. He pitched six innings and allowed five runs on seven hits. That is not a bad outing in Coors. Again, he left the game with his team in the lead, 6-5.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Jim Henderson is the new Brewers' closer. Henderson is another interesting story. Unlike Rogers, Henderson was selected in the 26th round...by the Expos. He is a thirty year old rookie. He had recorded two saves recently and had looked like he could right the Brewers sinking ship and along the way, help Mark Rogers get his first win for his career. It did not happen.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Henderson gave up three hits and two runs in the ninth and the Rockies had a walk-off win. Three times Mark Rogers had been in line for his first major league win and all three times the Brewers blew the save.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But Rogers is not alone in that category for Brewers' starters. The Brewers' bullpen is one of the most intriguing stories of 2012 and has totally derailed this team's chances for a playoff spot. The Brewers have now blown 23 saves in 48 saves opportunities.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After a long and winding road to get himself back to the big leagues, Mark Rogers has not embarrassed himself. The kid from Maine is holding his own. And maybe someday, Robers will get a win to show for it.</div>

Mark Rogers might win...some day

Mark Rogers of the Milwaukee Brewers is not a very lucky fellow. And that is unfortunate because he is from this great state of Maine and M...

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