The Flagrant Fan Blogs: Nick Tropeano

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Last night did not go well at all. In fact, I was afraid of a total ruination when the picks were like 1-6. But most of the later games came out okay (except the Giants instead of the Dodgers). It wasn't a total disaster and the Pick of the Day was right. But it wasn't good either.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thursday's picks:</span></div><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Pirates</strong> over the Cubs</span>: I obviously do not know what to do in this series. I haven't picked one of the games correctly yet. Maybe the fourth one is the charm. I'm going with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lockeje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lockeje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeff Locke</a></strong> over <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kyle Hendricks</a></strong>.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The Marlins over the <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Phillies</strong></span>: This is another series that I've struggled with. And today is a mess with these two as I have little confidence in <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phelpda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phelpda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Phelps</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dustin McGowan</a></strong> has pitched five times in relief but it slated to start today. He won't be able to go very deep into the game. Who knows.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The Yankees over the <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Tigers</strong></span>: I haven't done well with this series either. Who know that <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Price</a></strong> would get pounded? <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong> has really struggled. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tanakma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tanakma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Masahiro Tanaka</a></strong> is coming off a great start. So let's go with that. Hopefully, it won't snow today.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The Braves over the <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Mets</strong></span>: Three reasons for this pick. The Mets' winning streak has to end some time. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Bartolo Colon</a></strong> has to have a clunker eventually. And lastly, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Julio Teheran</a></strong> has an awful lot of talent. We'll see.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Brewers</strong> over the Reds</span>: Apparently, I am the patron saint of underdogs today. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lohseky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lohseky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kyle Lohse</a></strong> has been brutally bad. But he pulls it together tonight? The Brewers score some runs off of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baileho02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baileho02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Homer Bailey</a></strong>? It could happen...</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The Padres over the <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Rockies</strong></span>: Another series I am really ralphing on. The bullpens have been deciding these games. And it's been a different bullpen each night. So will it matter what <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jordan Lyles</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Tyson Ross</a></strong> do?</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Nationals</strong> over the Cardinals</span>: This series is very tight and can go either way. These are the two best teams in the NL in my opinion and they are battling each other like that is true. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> should be just a tick better than <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Michael Wacha</a></strong>. But just a tick...</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Angels</strong> over the Athletics</span>: Both <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tropeni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tropeni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Tropeano</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chaveje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chaveje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jesse Chavez</a></strong> are making their first starts of the seasons. They cancel each other out. I'm going with the home team and what I perceive to be the better offense in the Angels.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Blue Jays</strong> over the Orioles</span>: It's pretty safe to say that these teams don't like each other. I'm just not sure about the Blue Jays if <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong> is out of the lineup. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Tillman</a></strong> got bopped his last time out and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hutchdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hutchdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Drew Hutchison</a></strong> is due for a good game.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Rays</strong> over the Red Sox</span>: The AL East sure is hard to figure out. As is <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Clay Buchholz</a></strong>. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jake Odorizzi</a></strong> has been dependable for the Rays. So let's go that way. I have no confidence in this pick from either direction.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">White Sox</strong> over the Royals</span>: It's tough to pick against <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/ventuyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/ventuyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Yordano Ventura</a></strong>. But don't you have to when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Sale</a></strong> is pitching? But say the two starters cancel each other out? Then this pick is in trouble because the Royal's bullpen is pretty killer.</span></li></ul><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And the Pick of the Day</span></div><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The Dodgers over the <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Giants</strong></span>: <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bolsimi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bolsimi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Bolsinger</a></strong> makes his first start for the Dodgers. He has been lights out in his two PCL starts. I think he will be terrific. Forget about what happened last year. He was in Arizona. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vogelry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vogelry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Vogelsong</a></strong> goes for the Giants.</span></li></ul><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yesterday: 6-9, Season: 110-115, Picks of the Day: 9-8</span></div>

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: April 23, 2015

Last night did not go well at all. In fact, I was afraid of a total ruination when the picks were like 1-6. But most of the later games came...

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<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tonight, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tropea000nic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tropea000nic&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Tropeano</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> will be the 45th pitcher this season to make his Major League debut as a pitcher (and start at least one game). Last year, 57 pitchers did the same and there were 48 who did so in 2012. The data from those pitchers in their very first year and starting at least once in that first year shows that Tropeano and the Houston Astros are hoping for the best in what has not been a very successful adventure.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I don't know about you, but I love players making their debuts. It's part of that baseball circle of life thing that keeps the blood fresh and interesting. And I always root for the guy to do well. With the exception of the guys drafted in the top rounds, many of these pitchers worked their way through the systems, rode buses galore, didn't make a whole pile of dough and earned a shot. You want someone to make it after knowing that kind of history.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">More often than not, it does not work out. Of the 48 pitchers that made their debut in 2012, only sixteen of them had an ERA better than league average. For every <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Archer</a></strong>, there were two like <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raleybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raleybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brooks Raley</a></strong>. And yet, I bet to a man, each and every one of those pitchers would not trade the experience for the world. I'm not sure about their managers.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's look at some of the overall numbers. The league average ERA in 2012 was 4.01. The average ERA of pitchers who started in their debut seasons was 4.41. In 2013, the league average ERA was 3.87 and the debut season guys compiled to a 4.20. This year, the average ERA is 3.76 and the debut guys are averaging 4.27.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And don't forget that those debut season numbers are propped up by guys who really succeeded. For example, Hyun jin Ryu and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=fernajo01,fernajo02,fernan015jos,fernan008jos,fernan018jos,fernan014jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=fernajo01,fernajo02,fernan015jos,fernan008jos,fernan018jos,fernan014jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jose Fernandez</a></strong> really propped those numbers up quite a bit in 2012.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's look at some other data:</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Hits per nine: The league average has remained pretty stable at 8.7 hits per nine in 2012 and 2013 and 8.6 this year. The debut pitchers have averaged, 8.9, 9.1 and 9.4 respectively.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">WHIP: The average WHIP in baseball for the last three years has been 1.309 (2012), 1.300 (2013) and 1.281 this year.  The debut pitchers have averaged following that same year pattern, 1.369, 1.372, 1.373. Again, significantly higher despite some real success stories bolstering the numbers.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Strikeouts per nine from 2012 through 2014: 7.6, 7.6 and 7.7. Same timeline for the debutantes: 7.4, 7.4 and 6.9.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Walks per nine from 2012 through 2014: 3.1, 3.0 and 2.9. For the debut review: 3.2, 3.3 and 2.9.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Strikeout to walk ratio in MLB from 2012 to 2014: 2.48, 2.51, 2.64. Now for the first timers: 2.33, 2.24 and this year, 2.34.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Did you notice a trend with those numbers? While the MLB averages have shown better peripherals across the board for pitching each season, with the exception of walks per nine and K/BB, the numbers for the debut guys are worse each year. Why would that be?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I have some theories but do not have time to test them out. One is that teams are pushing these debuts to younger pitchers or those with less experience. This theory might not hold water because the average debut age this year is 25 and it was in the 23 range in 2013 and 2012. But that also may be skewed by older debut guys like <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wadats01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wadats01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Tsuyoshi Wada</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/laneja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/laneja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jason Lane</a></strong> (as a pitcher). The other is that many of these debuts come for teams down in the standings with low payrolls and they might not benefit from the same quality of fielding behind them.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One last statistic because most don't think it significant: The winning percentage of the debut pitchers are (from 2012 to 2014 respectively), .461, .482 and .442.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We have looked at ERA, WHIP, H/9, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB. Of those six categories leading to eighteen numbers to look at over the three year period, only one stat for one year matches that year's average. One out of eighteen. All in all, the peripherals for every category were worse than league average and worse for successive years from 2012 to this year.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I will be rooting for Nick Tropeano. For one thing, he is Italian (or at least his name is). Secondly, he is from New York and lastly, I am a sucker fro guys trying to make a mark in their world. But as much as I root for Nick Tropeano, the odds are against him.</span></div>

First year starters are a crap shoot

Tonight, Nick Tropeano will be the 45th pitcher this season to make his Major League debut as a pitcher (and start at least one game). Las...

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