Sorting out the Red Sox position players

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">According to my untrained observation, the Boston Red Sox have eleven Major League starting players for eight positions on the field. Then there is <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Ortiz</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> who is as designated a designated hitter as there is in baseball. So after signing and anchoring </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> and </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Hanley Ramirez</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> to third and left field with free agent signings, what happens to everyone else? What should happen to everyone else?</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Judging from the question marks surrounding the starting rotation, you would figure that some of the excess will be traded for pitching. But what if the Red Sox round out their rotation with free agent signings? You still have to deal with a logjam on the roster.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And I am not even including here guys like <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cecchga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cecchga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Garin Cecchini</a></strong>, who I am convinced is the next <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boggswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boggswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Wade Boggs</a></strong> if given a chance. With Sandoval at third for five years, what happens to him? We already know that <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/middlwi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/middlwi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Will Middlebrooks</a></strong> has fallen out of favor with everyone except Jenny Dell. So he will either be traded or designated. With his power potential in a power bereft MLB, traded seems more likely.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I am also not including catchers here. With <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Ross</a></strong> gone, two young unprovens (<strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Christian Vazquez</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/butleda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/butleda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dan Butler</a></strong>) are projected for the 25-man roster, so then we have eleven fighting for seven spots.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Perhaps we should list out what we know. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dustin Pedroia</a></strong> will (of course) be the second baseman. There has to be worry about his recent surgery though. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Xander Bogaerts</a></strong> will be the shortstop. There is no way the Red Sox are going to give up on him yet. You have Sandoval at third, Ramirez in left, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mookie Betts</a></strong> will get the first crack at center field and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Ortiz</a></strong> will be the DH.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Over at first, you have one year remaining on <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/napolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Napoli</a></strong>'s contract. His face has been wired shut all winter with his weird operation, but the guy was worth 3.2 rWAR in only 119 games last season. It would appear that he would be your first baseman with perhaps Sandoval taking over in 2016?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Right field is interesting. There is <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cespeyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cespeyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Yoenis Cespedes</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Shane Victorino</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Allen Craig</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/navada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/navada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Daniel Nava</a></strong>. Baseball-Prospectus has Victorino projected as the starter. But I'm not on that train. He might be healthier now that he has had a back operation, but I wouldn't count on him being a productive player again. And even if he is healthy, you can't risk him in center field.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Allen Craig</a></strong> forgot how to hit last year, which is weird because he was fantastic in prior years. His ankle has to have been a factor. Is that chronic moving forward?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I think you can count Nava out, which is sad because <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/remyje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/remyje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jerry Remy</a></strong> won't be able to say, "Nahver." anymore. Cespedes has to be your guy, right? After all, he was the big chip in the big trade last year. Rumors are out there that the Red Sox hate the guy. Who knows. Despite his lack of on-base skills, Cespedes makes a lineup deeper just with the threat of him.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Nava is out of options so he can't be sent down without losing him. Craig is too talented to give up on. Perhaps Craig is your swing guy with time at first and right with hopes of getting him 400 PAs. Or perhaps you just trade both Nava and Craig.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/holtbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/holtbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brock Holt</a></strong> is your most likely utility guy. He played seven different positions last season and despite a fade in September, was productive at the plate. If he isn't overexposed, he is the perfect utility option.  I don't like him at short though, so <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=marrer001dev&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=marrer001dev&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Deven Marrero</a></strong> or <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jemile Weeks</a></strong> (who is out of minor league options) make sense as a roster spot.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we recap here, we have the following extra players or trade prospects, if you will. They would be Middlebrooks, Craig, Cecchini, Nava and one of Victorino or Cespedes. My gut is telling me that the Red Sox will trade Cespedes if the rumors are true. But we'll see.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">I have always heard it said that there is no such thing as too many pitchers. And I agree with that. Pitchers are remarkably fragile. But what about position players? It seems that the Red Sox have too many Major League ready guys for too few positions. You hate to see guys with offensive talent like Craig and Cecchini go to waste. If they do not have a position on the team, then trading them makes the most sense. Cecchini might be the next </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bagweje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeff Bagwell</a></strong>, though, as the one that got away.</span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">P.S. I haven't forgotten about Rusney Castillo. Baseball-Prospectus has him projected as the starting center fielder. But we'll see what the spring brings.</span></div>

Sorting out the Red Sox position players

According to my untrained observation, the Boston Red Sox have eleven Major League starting players for eight positions on the field. Then t...

+ Read more »

Pence or Victorino? Which team got a better deal?

<div style="text-align: justify;">A month has gone by now since the Phillies traded away two thirds of their outfield to competing clubs in the National League West. The Giants picked up <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pencehu01.shtml" target="_blank">Hunter Pence</a></strong> and the Dodgers got <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml" target="_blank">Shane Victorino</a></strong>. From a birdseye view, neither team got a competitive edge with those two deals. In fact, they look remarkably similar in their unremarkable play. The one difference is that Victorino is an out and out free agent at the end of 2012 while Pence has a final year of arbitration pending. But judging from how slow Pence has started for the Giants, that might not be a win either.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">One factor to take into account for both players is that they had a nice home ballpark to play in at Philadelphia. Both the Giants and Dodgers play in more pitcher friendly parks. Oddly enough, both players are slightly more successful in their new homes than they are on the road so far with their new clubs. Even that is no great shakes and two teams desperately hoping for an offensive boost, neither got one.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Pence has had a good week. Even so, in 30 games with the Giants, Pence's triple slash line sits at .233/.292/.362. On the plus side, he has driven in 22 runs in those 30 games with a couple of homers. The Giants had to have hoped Pence would have had a bigger impact. When Pence was in a similar situation last year when he went from the Astros to the Phillies, he had an OPS of .954 down the stretch.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Similarly, Victorino, in his 28 games with the Dodgers, his slash line is .248/.307/.342. Pence has a five point lead in OPS, so that is a virtual dead heat. Victorino does not have the runs batted in though but has played much better in the field. According to baseball-reference.com, Victorino' play has been worth 0.4 rWAR with the Dodgers, while Pence has been worth 0.2 rWAR for the Giants. Both have a higher than average BABIP for their new teams, so it's not like they have been unlucky.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Both players have had disappointing seasons relative to their results a season ago and their career norms. Victorino is a full 140 points of last year's OPS with the Phillies and 65 points off his career OPS. Pence is 117 points below last year's OPS and 64 points off his career mark.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">When you take a closer look at Hunter Pence's batted ball and plate discipline stats, there is nothing noticeably different. The one area that jumps out at you is his contact rate and swinging strike rate. His contact rate is the lowest of his career at 72.7 percent. That is off significantly from his career 77.1 percent. His swinging strike rate is 12.8 percent, also the highest of his career (11.4 percent) and significantly higher than his last two seasons. Pence has always had positive numbers against the fastball and positive numbers the last couple of seasons against the slider. Both pitches against him this year have a negative value.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Shane Victorino's batted ball data is also within his career norms with the one exception that his homer to fly ball rate is off quite a bit. He is slightly less patient at the plate. But nothing else is out of line for him as far as plate discipline goes. Like Pence, his is having a lot of problems with the fastball this year unlike other years. He is also struggling with the change up.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;">As you can see, neither the Dodgers or the Giants have gained an appreciable advantage with their choice of former Phillies' outfielders. If you had to give an edge to anyone for their trade deadline deals, the team that seemed to make the best deal with the struggling outfielders was the Phillies.</div>

Pence or Victorino? Which team got a better deal?

A month has gone by now since the Phillies traded away two thirds of their outfield to competing clubs in the National League West. The Gian...

+ Read more »