Leadoff batters, where are you?

<div style="text-align: justify;">Everybody has their own idea of what a leadoff batter should be. Some think it should be the fast guy who can steal bases. Others like the speed / power combination. Some think that the leadoff batter should be the guy with the best on-base percentage. Some, writing in the past, focus on OPS. I tend to favor one or two of the latter. But if I had to commit myself, my preference would be the guy with the best on-base percentage who is not necessarily the elite hitter on the team.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The elite hitter usually bats third or fourth and the long-standing theory is that the leadoff guy gets on base and the big guys get him home. If they are also speed guys, that's great as long a they can be successful stealing 80% of the time. If they have some pop, that's also great. But the bottom line, for me, is that the first guy in the lineup can get on base at least 35% of the time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I compiled the league spit total for all of the Major Leagues for the past fifty years. And except for one golden age we will talk about in a minute, the collective of MLB leadoff batters have not been overly more successful of getting on base better than the collective of MLB batters as a whole. See the chart below:</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK9ChIGdQBapHFnEGGmRtCmbaZNbwvSn0j7xzpJrlU9WTx9ZzNaN_H7ETJfQKFP9QA4FCmoekbcC-ul3_I0hzhWCYOnerr0UGrrwbXocHZy_-kqvwiP1p15WyuiYipRgJuKemInk125KA/s1600/obp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK9ChIGdQBapHFnEGGmRtCmbaZNbwvSn0j7xzpJrlU9WTx9ZzNaN_H7ETJfQKFP9QA4FCmoekbcC-ul3_I0hzhWCYOnerr0UGrrwbXocHZy_-kqvwiP1p15WyuiYipRgJuKemInk125KA/s1600/obp.png" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The last four years is the first four-year stretch since the early to mid-1960s where the collective leadoff batters did not average a .330 on-base percentage. The downturn follows the overall downturn in offense over the last four years.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">But as you can also see, the current offense is similar to the offense of the mid-1980s but that was also the dawn of a golden age of leadoff batters that lasted until 1995 or so. That was the period of Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Lenny Dykstra, Tim Raines, Brett Butler and even Bip Roberts. All those guys were terrific at getting on base despite whatever the league averages were and dragged the entire category up with them.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The average year for a leadoff batter resulted in an on-base percentage of about 10 points higher than all players as a whole. During those glory years, it often rose as high as 18 points. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Why is that significant? Some writers have suggested that a good leadoff batter can add as much as 15 runs to his team. Generally, leadoff batters have a thousand plate appearances league-wide more than the number three hitter on the team, or about 33 more plate appearances for each of the thirty teams. 15 runs is a little more than a win. A win is worth $5 to $6 million. A win could also make a difference in the standings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">I have found in my research that unless the collective of leadoff batters have an on-base percentage of .330 or higher, they will not score more collective runs than the number three batters in the league. And that is for a thousand more plate appearances! So, yes, it does make a difference.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">As I stated, the last four years, the collective leadoff batters (by the way, I am using baseball-reference.com's league splits) have averaged less than a .330 on-base percentage. This past season (2013), only six leadoff batters--or one-fifth of all teams--had a leadoff guy whose on-base percentage was over .350: Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Carpenter, Norichika Aoki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ian Kinsler and Jose Reyes.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Is it any surprise that two of those guys were two of the highest paid free agents this off season and another, Kinsler, was part of one of the biggest trades?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">As recently as 2009, there were fifteen leadoff batters (I have been using 400 min. plate appearances at the position) whose on-base percentage was over .350. So we went from half of all teams to a fifth. In 2008, there were fourteen. In 2007, there were fourteen. But there have been only six for the past three seasons.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Perhaps the leadoff batter has become a market inefficiency. Or perhaps the trend simply indicates a pitcher dominated era. There also might be a reflection of the acceptance of the strikeout as just another out somewhere in the mix too. Whatever the case, the leadoff batter is not what it used to be even as recently as 2009.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 256px;"> <colgroup><col span="3" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> </colgroup><tbody><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Lead off</td> <td class="xl63" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Year</td> <td class="xl63">OBP</td> <td class="xl63">LG OBP</td> <td class="xl63">Difference</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1963</td> <td class="xl64">0.318</td> <td class="xl64">0.309</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.009</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1964</td> <td class="xl64">0.317</td> <td class="xl64">0.313</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.004</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1965</td> <td class="xl64">0.318</td> <td class="xl64">0.311</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.007</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1966</td> <td class="xl64">0.324</td> <td class="xl64">0.310</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.014</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1967</td> <td class="xl64">0.307</td> <td class="xl64">0.306</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.001</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1968</td> <td class="xl64">0.314</td> <td class="xl64">0.299</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.015</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1969</td> <td class="xl64">0.331</td> <td class="xl64">0.320</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.011</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1970</td> <td class="xl64">0.335</td> <td class="xl64">0.326</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.009</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1971</td> <td class="xl64">0.325</td> <td class="xl64">0.317</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.008</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1972</td> <td class="xl64">0.315</td> <td class="xl64">0.311</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.004</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1973</td> <td class="xl64">0.336</td> <td class="xl64">0.325</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.011</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1974</td> <td class="xl64">0.336</td> <td class="xl64">0.324</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.012</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1975</td> <td class="xl64">0.340</td> <td class="xl64">0.327</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.013</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1976</td> <td class="xl64">0.328</td> <td class="xl64">0.320</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.008</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1977</td> <td class="xl64">0.339</td> <td class="xl64">0.323</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.016</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1978</td> <td class="xl64">0.323</td> <td class="xl64">0.330</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">-0.007</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1979</td> <td class="xl64">0.342</td> <td class="xl64">0.326</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.016</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1980</td> <td class="xl64">0.348</td> <td class="xl64">0.320</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.028</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1981</td> <td class="xl64">0.330</td> <td class="xl64">0.324</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.006</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1982</td> <td class="xl64">0.329</td> <td class="xl64">0.325</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.004</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1983</td> <td class="xl64">0.343</td> <td class="xl64">0.323</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.020</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1984</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td class="xl64">0.323</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.010</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1985</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td class="xl64">0.326</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.007</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1986</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td class="xl64">0.331</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.002</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1987</td> <td class="xl64">0.349</td> <td class="xl64">0.331</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.018</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1988</td> <td class="xl64">0.336</td> <td class="xl64">0.318</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.018</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1989</td> <td class="xl64">0.332</td> <td class="xl64">0.320</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.012</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1990</td> <td class="xl64">0.345</td> <td class="xl64">0.325</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.020</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1991</td> <td class="xl64">0.343</td> <td class="xl64">0.323</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.020</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1992</td> <td class="xl64">0.342</td> <td class="xl64">0.322</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.020</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1993</td> <td class="xl64">0.350</td> <td class="xl64">0.332</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.018</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1994</td> <td class="xl64">0.349</td> <td class="xl64">0.339</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.010</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1995</td> <td class="xl64">0.350</td> <td class="xl64">0.338</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.012</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1996</td> <td class="xl64">0.350</td> <td class="xl64">0.340</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.010</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1997</td> <td class="xl64">0.347</td> <td class="xl64">0.337</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.010</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1998</td> <td class="xl64">0.347</td> <td class="xl64">0.335</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.012</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">1999</td> <td class="xl64">0.349</td> <td class="xl64">0.345</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.004</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2000</td> <td class="xl64">0.349</td> <td class="xl64">0.345</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.004</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2001</td> <td class="xl64">0.331</td> <td class="xl64">0.332</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">-0.001</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2002</td> <td class="xl64">0.332</td> <td class="xl64">0.331</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.001</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2003</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.000</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2004</td> <td class="xl64">0.343</td> <td class="xl64">0.335</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.008</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2005</td> <td class="xl64">0.342</td> <td class="xl64">0.330</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.012</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2006</td> <td class="xl64">0.343</td> <td class="xl64">0.337</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.006</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2007</td> <td class="xl64">0.345</td> <td class="xl64">0.336</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.009</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2008</td> <td class="xl64">0.345</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.012</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2009</td> <td class="xl64">0.347</td> <td class="xl64">0.333</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.014</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2010</td> <td class="xl64">0.329</td> <td class="xl64">0.325</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.004</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2011</td> <td class="xl64">0.328</td> <td class="xl64">0.321</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.007</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2012</td> <td class="xl64">0.324</td> <td class="xl64">0.319</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.005</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2013</td> <td class="xl64">0.329</td> <td class="xl64">0.318</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.011</td> </tr><tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"> <td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"></td> <td class="xl64">0.335</td> <td class="xl64">0.326</td> <td align="right" class="xl65">0.010</td> </tr></tbody></table><br />

Leadoff batters, where are you?

Everybody has their own idea of what a leadoff batter should be. Some think it should be the fast guy who can steal bases. Others like the s...

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Baseball excitement back in Toronto

<div style="text-align: justify;">The tired old line from <i>The Field of Dreams</i> of, "Build it and they will come." does not really apply to the Toronto Blue Jays and their fan base. Instead, it has been more of, "Show them you care and are trying to win and they will come." After a wild off-season, the front office of the Blue Jays has apparently done just that in Toronto and the fans there are back in full force.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Say what you want about "fair weather fans" or, "bandwagon fans." I have never understood what the problem is there. The bottom line is that more fannies are in the seats or on their feet hollering and screaming for the Blue Jays. More people in the stands, means more excitement and more dollars in the team's bottom line so that they can try to maintain a competitive team.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And definitely more people are showing up at Rogers Centre in Toronto. Through the first five games of season, the Blue Jays have drawn 184,116 fan in attendance. That is an average of 36,823 per game. They did not reach that amount of fans until the seventh home game last season. Through the nine games of the Blue Jays' first home stand last year, the Blue Jays drew 220,097 fans in attendance, an average of 24,538. The Blue Jays have easily topped the 40,000 mark in each of the last two games against the Red Sox and should have at least that many again today.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Today should mark the fourth time in just six games that the Blue Jays have topped 40,000 in attendance. Last season, the Blue Jays did not reach their fourth 40,000+ crowd until June 2, 2012. If the attendance increase continues on a per game basis, the Blue Jays have a good chance of drawing three million fans to the dome for the first time since their World Series teams of two decades ago.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To add a little voice of sanity to this conversation, this three game series is against the Red Sox and the Blue Jays have traditionally done well in attendance against the Red Sox. But still, there is an air of raucousness at the dome that has not been felt for a very long time. Some say it is too raucous and at times downright impolite. And there has been added incentive with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=farrejo03,farrejo02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Farrell</a></strong> making his return to Toronto as the manager of the Red Sox after dumping the Blue Jays for his "dream job" in Boston. And besides, the crowd has been way too tame in Toronto for a long time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But I do not think the added excitement is due only to the return of John Farrell. I think that the addition of players like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsjo09,johnso012jos,johnso011jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Johnson</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-017jos,reyes-004jos,reyes-016jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Reyes</a></strong> has built momentum and interest since that trade occurred.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Jose Reyes is going to be huge in Toronto. His style of play, his flair, his ever present energy and his speed are going to thrill Blue Jays fans for much of his tenure there. And yeah, the team has started a much ballyhooed season at 2-3 but it is early yet and the pitching has not yet gotten its feet under it. Once Josh Johnson, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong> and Dickey start throwing zeroes, this team is going to be tough to beat.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whether the Blue Jays will win the American League East  remains to be seen. The division seems like a scrum with only the Yankees reeling out of the gate. But whether they do or do not will not make that much of a difference to Toronto fans. What matters there is that for the first time in a long time, the fans in that "north-of-the-border" city truly believe their front office and ownership really went all out to bring them a winner. </div>

Baseball excitement back in Toronto

The tired old line from The Field of Dreams of, "Build it and they will come." does not really apply to the Toronto Blue Jays and...

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Why Jose Reyes will be the AL MVP in 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">The fans in Toronto are really excited, and why shouldn't they be? For the first time in many years, the Blue Jays have some dynamic talent on the field and in the starting rotation. The American League East is wide open as every team has holes. The key to it all, from this office chair, is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-017jos,reyes-016jos,reyes-004jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Reyes</a></strong>. If Reyes stays healthy and has a good season, he will be the fire that lights up the rest of the Blue Jays lineup. If that happens, he could very well win the American League Most Valuable Player Award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here is why it can happen:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Batted ball data from 2012 shows that Jose Reyes hit more ground balls in 2012 than he has since his 2005 season. While his line drive percentage has remained constant, his ground ball to fly ball ratio rose to 1.43 while with the Marlins. Perhaps because of the ground balls and perhaps because of data positioning, his BABIP was lower in 2012 than his career average.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It seems likely, considering his batted ball stats since 2007, that his ground ball rate will drop to previous levels. And even if his ground ball rate stays the same, since Rogers Centre has artificial turf, that same ground ball rate gives him a chance to raise his BABIP.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The turf can also increase his production of doubles and triples. Reyes has hit double-digit triples in seven of his last eight seasons. There is no reason why that will not continue in 2013. Most projection systems give him double-digits in triples but on the lower end of the scale. He could beat those projections. Reyes usually finishes with 30 or more doubles in a season. With the turf, that could increase to 40 with not too much difficulty. Add in ten or more homers and he should better his career .440 slugging percentage.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The quality of the hitters behind Reyes might just be the best he has ever played with. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a></strong>, PEDs or no PEDs, has really turned his career around and is a solid number two hitter who will allow Reyes to continue to steal bases with abandon. Reyes has stolen 79 bases in the last two combined seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After Cabrera comes <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong>. Bautista has the best plate discipline on the team and, though there is some concern from his wrist injury, he has to be figured being a dangerous hitter with a pile of walks. After Bautista comes <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong>, who became the Bautista of 2012 as he blossomed into one of the best combination power hitters and on-base guy in the American League last year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That top four can rival a lot of lineups around baseball. If they all perform, there is no reason Jose Reyes cannot score 110 runs or more.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Reyes has fallen off somewhat in his fielding statistics. Fangraphs rates him at a little more than three runs below average for the past two seasons. Baseball-reference.com is even harder on him at 17 runs below average for 2012. The turf at home can do two things. It can give him truer balls to field helping him a bit, or it can cause more balls to zip right by him thus causing him problems with his range scores.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But say he has a good season in the field and can play at least league average in the field. Then, all of his offensive rankings will add positively to his WAR total with a positional boost from playing shortstop.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sure, this sounds like a lot of "ifs." But if Jose Reyes stays healthy, and if he has a good season in the field, Jose Reyes could be the spark that ignites the Blue Jays with his personality and his bat and legs. He seems to be in a perfect fit with the Blue Jays and the timing seems just right for him to have a big year. He is this site's predicted choice for the MVP in 2013. </div>

Why Jose Reyes will be the AL MVP in 2013

The fans in Toronto are really excited, and why shouldn't they be? For the first time in many years, the Blue Jays have some dynamic tal...

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