Edwin Encarnacion lately...

<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;">I thought I would write about how well </span><strong style="background-color: white; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;">'s bat has kicked in lately with his 1.111 OPS and 14 RBIs in his last twelve games and what that has meant to the Blue Jays. But a picture really is worth a thousand words:</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;"><br /></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzOR3h-1UsC_hcRAk-Rq20oRBjeE6L-zDieFYwohHWZ6m7r_0xbl-t2ey7vLFsPn9GL8z1qHhRXx_MX4XLNXMQyymI84giOf-P2ehsmurg-_ZXowGNxhZECzVaqw3W8CmMLbTbihY8XE/s1600/Encarnacion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzOR3h-1UsC_hcRAk-Rq20oRBjeE6L-zDieFYwohHWZ6m7r_0xbl-t2ey7vLFsPn9GL8z1qHhRXx_MX4XLNXMQyymI84giOf-P2ehsmurg-_ZXowGNxhZECzVaqw3W8CmMLbTbihY8XE/s1600/Encarnacion.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;"><br /></span></span>

Edwin Encarnacion lately...

I thought I would write about how well  Edwin Encarnacion 's bat has kicked in lately with his 1.111 OPS and 14 RBIs in his last twelve ...

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Jose Bautista quietly having a great season

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After hitting 97 combined homers in 2010 and 2011, things got a little sleepy for <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> and the baseball world has sort of forgotten him. A severe wrist injury and surgery limited him the last two seasons and cut down his production...though few would probably guess he hit 55 homers combined in 2012 and 2013. But the big bat is back in Toronto and better than ever.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Here are some quick facts about Jose Bautista so far in 2014:</span></div><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">His walk rate is the best of his career at an amazing 22.5%. His plate discipline is amazing as he is swinging at only 18% of pitches out of the strike zone and only at 34% of pitches overall. He is waiting for HIS pitch. His on-base percentage is an amazing .464.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">His strikeout rate is the best of his career. Despite being a big, potent bat, he does not strike out very much. He swings and misses at only 6.6% of the time. Walking a lot, not striking out much and hitting well equals wow.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jose Bautista is currently second behind Tulowitzki in all of baseball in wOBA and wRC+. The only thing knocking him down on the WAR leaderboard is his defense, which hasn't been one of his strong suits so far.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Meanwhile, he is eighth in slugging percentage and sixth in ISO.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Despite being a power hitter with a .595 slugging percentage, his walk to strikeout rate is fourth best in baseball.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Despite a BABIP of only .293, he is batting .306.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">He is tied for third in all of baseball in runs scored. Hitting nine homers and getting on base that often will do that.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Of his 34 walks, only one is intentional. In other words, he is protected well in the lineup and has earned his walks.</span></li></ul><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The best part for Blue Jays fans is that none of his numbers jump out as fluky. We don't have a guy here with an ultra-high BABIP or freakish home run to fly ball numbers that should dip as the season goes along.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">All it appears is that Jose Bautista is now fully healed from his former wrist problems and is back to where he was in 2011. Thirty-five or more homers, 110 or more runs scored, 100 or more RBIs, 100 or more walks all seem very doable for Bautista, especially when you consider that Encarnacion hitting behind him has been off to a sluggish start. Jose Bautista is again among the elite offensive players in the game today.</span></div>

Jose Bautista quietly having a great season

After hitting 97 combined homers in 2010 and 2011, things got a little sleepy for  Jose Bautista  and the baseball world has sort of forgott...

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Quit yer stallin' for relief pitchers

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Although I am on the high side of my fifties, I am in large part still a kid inside. Baseball works very well for that. And when I yell at players on my television screen, I often yell in the voices of Bugs Bunny characters. If you don't believe me, ask my wife. Such an occasion occurred last night in the Blue Jays - Yankees game when Toronto manager, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibbojo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibbojo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">John Gibbons</a></strong>, clearly stalled the game trying to give a relief pitcher in the bullpen a few more reps before he came in to pitch. Out of my mouth, Yosemite Sam's, "Quit yer stallin'!"</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">This is how it happened. Starter, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgowdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dustin McGowan</a></strong> was having a rough night. Gibbons had been forced to start up the bullpen in the first when the Yankees started cuffing McGowan around and had the bases loaded with two runs already in. But McGowan got out of the jam without further damage and then pitched a successful second inning.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Lulled into thinking that McGowan had settled in, despite a walk and a stolen base by <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brian Roberts</a></strong>, Both McGowan and Gibbons thought that McGowan got out of the third when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suzukic01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ichiro Suzuki</a></strong> was called out on a close play by the first base umpire. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/girarjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/girarjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joe Girardi</a></strong> provided the first stall as he waited by the umpire to hear from his dugout on whether to challenge the call. We'll talk about this problem again in a minute.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Gibbons thought correctly that McGowan was in a compromised position by the call reversal and he desperately wanted to bring in <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loupaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loupaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Aaron Loup</a></strong> to take McGowan's place. Loup had just gotten up when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solarya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solarya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Yangervis Solarte</a></strong> boomed a double to score two runs. The problem after this was that Loup still wasn't ready yet.</div><iframe frameborder="0" height="465" scrolling="no" src="//embed.gettyimages.com/embed/482797527?et=0M-S9hRVK0ywqosRe_c5CA&sig=CTuLBMGVFOsibnW8kWoFqh8_l4lUduf0nHXFLd9pN24=" width="594"></iframe> <br /><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">And so we saw what we see all the time. The pitching coach walks as slowly to the mound as he can without completely stopping in place. He then folds his arm while the entire infield gathers and stays like that until the umpire comes to break it up.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The pitching coach leaves and from the dugout, catcher, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/navardi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/navardi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dioner Navarro</a></strong>, is instructed to go to the mound and talk to his pitcher, as clear a further stall as has ever been seen. And in a move probably paid for by Toronto spies, a fan ran onto the field and ran around until he was captured thus giving Loup the time he needed to finish getting ready. For eight to ten minutes, no baseball happened. It was then that I yelled in Yosemite Sam.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I am not picking on just John Gibbons and the Blue Jays. What they did (other than the fan running around) is done every day by managers around baseball. Part of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddojo99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddojo99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joe Maddon</a></strong>'s "genius" is his mastery of the stall tactic. Remember <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fuldsa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fuldsa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Sam Fuld</a></strong> warming up to pitch? Tony La Russa was famous for the same thing.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">In my mind, such stalling is cheating and not in the spirit of how baseball is to be played. If you <a data-mce-href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2013/official_baseball_rules.pdf" href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2013/official_baseball_rules.pdf" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">read the official</a> MLB rule book, the word, "Delay," appears 23 times. It is obviously something that is frowned upon. Heck, batters are not supposed to leave the batting box and pitchers are supposed to throw the ball within twelve seconds of receiving it. Don't even get me started on these rules not being enforced.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Mound visits are not specified in the delay cycle of the rule book and it should be. But it also says that a team is in danger of forfeit if a manager tries to delay or shorten a game. You could read into this law for enforcement.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">If the relief pitcher is not ready, the manager is at fault for not thinking ahead or panicking in time. If the relief pitcher is not ready, the game should resume with what he has on the mound and resume quickly.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Such a stall tactic is being allowed when it comes to the new instant replays. Managers are allowed to shuffle around next to an umpire until getting a signal from the dugout for a yea or nay on calling for a replay. This allowed delay is a flaw of the new system which has been mentioned many times by others. It needs to be fixed.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">But the delay for relief pitchers is grievous to me. It is stalling and not in the best interest of baseball or its fans. It is cheating and just as bad as other forms of cheating. It should not be winked at.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The rules should be changed that when the manager does his little hand puppet gesture for the catcher to go talk to the pitcher, the umpire should have discretion to say no. The rule should be changed so that a pitching coach must jog or get to the mound and quickly as possible and not stay more than twelve seconds. And if he does neither a balk should be called.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Stalling is cheating. Saying it is a part of baseball if you want. But that does not make it right.</div>

Quit yer stallin' for relief pitchers

Although I am on the high side of my fifties, I am in large part still a kid inside. Baseball works very well for that. And when I yell at p...

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Josh Thole's knuckleball mitt beats out Kratz's bat

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The Toronto Blue Jays made their decision on a backup catcher yesterday when they kept <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tholejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tholejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Josh Thole</a></strong> and sent <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kratzer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kratzer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Erik Kratz</a></strong> to the minors. From the outside looking it, it appears that Thole's one skill set determined the outcome--his experience with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">R.A. Dickey</a></strong>.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I should say in advance that I was rooting for Erik Kratz. So anything I write on this subject could be prejudicial. I admit it. I was rooting for Kratz because of his perseverance.  The guy toiled in the minor leagues for twelve years and finally received a real taste of the Majors for the Phillies in 2012 and 2013.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Someone who spends twelve years in the minors and parts of eight seasons in Triple-A seem to deserve a shot. That kind of career is as blue collar as his name. And Kratz has shown some pop in his brief Major League experiences. He hit nine homers in each of his last two seasons with the Phillies or eighteen in just 378 at bats.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">But Josh Thole has been R.A. Dickey's personal catcher for three years now. Thole seems willing to put on the knuckleball mitt and try to catch butterflies. And it seems understandable to a point. After all, Thole has caught 70 of Dickey's 102 starts since 2011.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">There has to be a comfort factor for Dickey with Thole. His ERA when pitching to Arencibia or Blanco last year were much higher than with Thole. And that holds true with the last three seasons with the exception of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nickemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nickemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Nickeas</a></strong> who caught him more successfully than even Thole when with the Mets. Nickeas is also with the Blue Jays organization now which is not really a surprise.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">It would take some study which I don't have time for this morning to see if Thole has actually been more successful catching Dickey than others (passed balls, wild pitches, caught steals, etc.). Doing so would perhaps prove or disprove the catcher ERA thing.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">But one thing is known: Josh Thole is going downhill as an offensive player. His OPS has gone down for four years in a row and fell into the abyss last season at .497. Ouch. Kratz, meanwhile had hit .400 this spring and could have added some pop into the Blue Jays' lineup when he played. That is something Thole could not give them.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The question lies open on whether Dickey's comfort level and success with Josh Thole is worth the ten or so runs the Blue Jays will lose with Kratz's offense. Without further study, I cannot answer the question. I just know that I am bummed for Erik Kratz.</div>

Josh Thole's knuckleball mitt beats out Kratz's bat

The Toronto Blue Jays made their decision on a backup catcher yesterday when they kept  Josh Thole  and sent  Erik Kratz  to the minors. Fro...

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Rival Roundup - The Yankees against the AL East

I just concluded a four-part series over at <i>It's About the Money, Stupid</i> that compared the current Yankees to their four rivals in the American League East.<br /><br />The first part covered the <a href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/03/14/rival-roundup-baltimore-orioles/" target="_blank">Baltimore Orioles</a>. Questions answered were:<br /><ul><li>What does the Orioles' rotation look like?</li><li>Will <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisch02.shtml">Chris Davis</a></strong> regress?</li><li>How will <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml">Manny Machado</a></strong> recover from his injury?</li></ul><br />The second part covered the <a href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/03/17/rival-roundup-tampa-bay-rays/" target="_blank">Tampa Bay Rays</a>. Questions considered:<br /><ul><li>Is this the year <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jennide01.shtml">Desmond Jennings</a></strong> breaks out?</li><li>Is the Rays rotation even stronger with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml">Jeremy Hellickson</a></strong> being out with injury?</li><li>How does <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/girarjo01.shtml">Joe Girardi</a></strong> compare with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/maddojo99.shtml">Joe Maddon</a></strong>?</li></ul><br />The third segment covered the <a href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/03/18/rival-roundup-the-toronto-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Toronto Blue Jays</a>. Thing to ponder included:<br /><ul><li>Is the rotation still a mess and can <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml">Brandon Morrow</a></strong> rebound?</li><li>Can <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Jose+Reyes">Jose Reyes</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Jose+Bautista">Jose Bautista</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml">Colby Rasmus</a></strong> stay healthy?</li><li>Is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml">Brett Lawrie</a></strong> ready to be a factor?</li></ul><br />The last segment, of course, covered the <a href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/03/19/rival-roundup-the-boston-red-sox/" target="_blank">Boston Red Sox</a>. Observations about:<br /><ul><li>Will <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml">David Ortiz</a></strong> ever age?</li><li>Is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/middlwi01.shtml">Will Middlebrooks</a></strong> the answer at third?</li><li>How old is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml">Koji Uehara</a></strong>?</li></ul><br />It was a fun series, and I hope you check out all the four parts of the series.

Rival Roundup - The Yankees against the AL East

I just concluded a four-part series over at It's About the Money, Stupid that compared the current Yankees to their four rivals in the...

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2013 fluke or future - Colby Rasmus

<div style="text-align: justify;">Would you believe me if I told you that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong>' slugging percentage was only seven points lower than McCutchen in 2013? Would you believe me if I told you that he had a more valuable season than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Jones</a></strong>? How about if I told you that he had a better defensive season than Span, Ellsbury, Blanco and McCutchen? I would not blame you if you would not have believed any of those. Neither did I until I saw them. Was this 2013 season by Colby Rasmus a fluke or what his future will look like?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What do the experts think? I like to look at projections, especially this time of year. The first thing I did was look at last year's ZiPS projection for Rasmus. While ZiPS was dead on for his total doubles and homers, that projection was for a full 588 plate appearances. Due to a couple of bouts with injury, Rasmus only played 118 games and compiled only 458 plate appearances. So Rasmus easily beat his power projections and his batting average and on-base percentage projections too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But it is hard to blame ZiPS for what it came up with. After a breakout season in 2010, Rasmus ran afoul of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larusto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tony LaRussa</a></strong> in one of the most famous doghouse incidents in recent times and then got lost for a couple of years. All Rasmus could muster was a .688 OPS in 2011 and a .689 OPS in 2012. Therefore, ZiPS projection of a .749 OPS for Rasmus in 2013 seemed overly bullish. But Rasmus blew that away and finished with an OPS of .840, 91 points higher.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So the projections would be more optimistic for 2014, right? Wrong. ZiPS has not gotten to the Blue Jays yet (from what I could find). But Steamer and Oliver have put theirs out and they predict Rasmus to fall back to .771 and .770 respectively. Oliver goes further and gives a five year projection. That system never expects him to be as good as he was in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There must be obvious reasons for the lack of faith in what Rasmus did in 2013. For one thing, Rasmus had a BABIP of .356. That had to be lucky right? His last two seasons before that featured him not being able to achieve a BABIP over .270. But Rasmus once had a season with that high a BABIP--2010.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Obviously, the projections are not buying it. But perhaps you can consider that Rasmus had his best ever line drive percentage in 2013. He had never gone over 20% in that category before and his line drive percentage was 22% in 2013. You hit that many ropes and your BABIP will get a boost. You could say it was a fluke. But what if it wasn't?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Rasmus also had his lowest ground ball rate since (yeah, there is a theme here) 2010. And a higher percentage of those fly balls went over the fence than ever before in his career (17.3%). So more of his fly balls left the yard and his line drive percentage spiked. That will help your BABIP.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is another thing the projections might be seeing and that is the strikeout and walk rates. Rasmus did compile his highest strikeout rate in 2013 and his lowest walk rate. His swing and miss rate was also the highest of his career. His strikeout rate in 2013 was just a bit higher than (oh my) 2010 and then went down in 2011 and 2012. The interesting thing here is that his percentage of swings at pitches out of the strike zone dipped under 30% for the first time in his career. So he is a bit more selective but is swinging and missing a lot.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Wasn't it the strikeouts that first put him in LaRussa's doghouse?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I can see where the projections might be skeptical of Rasmus. The BABIP, strikeouts and walks would put a analytic damper on things. But the projections also knock down his defense. And, again, it is a bit understandable. His defense was worth 11.5 runs above average in 2009 but then fell into the negative in 2010 and 2011. He bounced back with 2.1 runs in the positive in 2012 and then seemed to explode to 12.9 runs in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So it is easy to see what the "machine" is looking at. Oliver gives him a projection of 3.8 runs above average and Steamer, six. So Steamer is a bit more optimistic.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I get where the math comes from. The algorithms look at the cold hard data and that is the purpose. But what if there were circumstances involved the algorithms cannot see? Maybe the LaRussa thing really messed him up for a couple of years. Maybe he was immature and did not handle things well. The mental part of the game is something that cannot be measured.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Maybe he is in a better place in his life and in a more supportive atmosphere, the same one that made stars of Bautista and Encarnacion. Colby Rasmus is only 27 years old. I am being bullish here and thinking that 2013 might not have been a fluke. Maybe it is a case of a former #1 draft pick finding himself. Perhaps the future only gets brighter from here. I will feel a little more confident in that pronouncement if he can repeat or better his 2013 season in the year or two to come.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I will leave you with this last bit of mind wandering. Think of the defense up the middle of two guys LaRussa chased out of St. Louis. Think of how crazy good <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brendan Ryan</a></strong> is at short and Rasmus is in center. Imagine how scary good the Cardinals could have been in 2013 with those two instead of Kozma and Jay! </div>

2013 fluke or future - Colby Rasmus

Would you believe me if I told you that Colby Rasmus ' slugging percentage was only seven points lower than McCutchen in 2013? Would yo...

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Edwin Encarnacion and his arm bar home run trot

<div style="text-align: justify;">After hitting 42 homers in 2012 and finishing April with nine more, it is pretty apparent that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong> has arrived as an elite power hitter in Major League Baseball. And Mr. Encarnacion does not hit little cheap shots either. He crushes baseballs. He hit two in last night's game that were just crushed. But I noticed something unique in his home run trot. While he was circling the bases, he puts his right arm in a stationary position. I am not sure how how Major League pitchers feel about his trot, but they sure look fun.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here is what I am talking about. <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_04_30_bosmlb_tormlb_1&mode=video" target="_blank">Here is one</a> of the homers. Watch him as he rounds second and heads to third. Gosh, that ball was crushed!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here is the <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_04_30_bosmlb_tormlb_1&mode=video" target="_blank">other one</a> and he does it again on the second homer. I could not embed these so you have the link instead.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Have you ever seen anyone do that before? I have not. I am sure that someone has asked Edwin about the move, but until I find it, all I can do is speculate about what he is doing. Here are my guesses:</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">He is taking his Blue Jays' teammates on a pony ride.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He is strolling with his lady friend around the bases.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Hitting homers is like leaning at the bar of his favorite Toronto pub.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He is making sure his armpits are aired out before he gets greeted by his teammates.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He is walking the dog and the pitcher was his dog.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Hitting home runs is like square dancing.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The game is so easy for him that his arm is resting up on his easy chair.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He needs the aerodynamics to keep making left turns.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He is warding off bad mojo from glaring outfielders.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He is waiting for a hawk to land on his arm.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Hitting homers is like being a passenger in a car with the window down.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;">Do you have any more ideas? Or maybe you have read an article about it. Whatever Encarnacion is doing, it is kind of cool and different. One thing is also sure: Edwin Encarnacion has become one hitter I would gladly pay to see hit again and again.<br /><br />Update** My good friend, Navin, who knows all things Toronto sports says (in the comment section) the move is called, "The Edwing." I could not find a Google reference, but if Navin says it, it is gold to me.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

Edwin Encarnacion and his arm bar home run trot

After hitting 42 homers in 2012 and finishing April with nine more, it is pretty apparent that Edwin Encarnacion has arrived as an elite p...

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Baseball excitement back in Toronto

<div style="text-align: justify;">The tired old line from <i>The Field of Dreams</i> of, "Build it and they will come." does not really apply to the Toronto Blue Jays and their fan base. Instead, it has been more of, "Show them you care and are trying to win and they will come." After a wild off-season, the front office of the Blue Jays has apparently done just that in Toronto and the fans there are back in full force.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Say what you want about "fair weather fans" or, "bandwagon fans." I have never understood what the problem is there. The bottom line is that more fannies are in the seats or on their feet hollering and screaming for the Blue Jays. More people in the stands, means more excitement and more dollars in the team's bottom line so that they can try to maintain a competitive team.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And definitely more people are showing up at Rogers Centre in Toronto. Through the first five games of season, the Blue Jays have drawn 184,116 fan in attendance. That is an average of 36,823 per game. They did not reach that amount of fans until the seventh home game last season. Through the nine games of the Blue Jays' first home stand last year, the Blue Jays drew 220,097 fans in attendance, an average of 24,538. The Blue Jays have easily topped the 40,000 mark in each of the last two games against the Red Sox and should have at least that many again today.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Today should mark the fourth time in just six games that the Blue Jays have topped 40,000 in attendance. Last season, the Blue Jays did not reach their fourth 40,000+ crowd until June 2, 2012. If the attendance increase continues on a per game basis, the Blue Jays have a good chance of drawing three million fans to the dome for the first time since their World Series teams of two decades ago.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To add a little voice of sanity to this conversation, this three game series is against the Red Sox and the Blue Jays have traditionally done well in attendance against the Red Sox. But still, there is an air of raucousness at the dome that has not been felt for a very long time. Some say it is too raucous and at times downright impolite. And there has been added incentive with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=farrejo03,farrejo02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Farrell</a></strong> making his return to Toronto as the manager of the Red Sox after dumping the Blue Jays for his "dream job" in Boston. And besides, the crowd has been way too tame in Toronto for a long time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But I do not think the added excitement is due only to the return of John Farrell. I think that the addition of players like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsjo09,johnso012jos,johnso011jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Johnson</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-017jos,reyes-004jos,reyes-016jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Reyes</a></strong> has built momentum and interest since that trade occurred.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Jose Reyes is going to be huge in Toronto. His style of play, his flair, his ever present energy and his speed are going to thrill Blue Jays fans for much of his tenure there. And yeah, the team has started a much ballyhooed season at 2-3 but it is early yet and the pitching has not yet gotten its feet under it. Once Josh Johnson, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong> and Dickey start throwing zeroes, this team is going to be tough to beat.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whether the Blue Jays will win the American League East  remains to be seen. The division seems like a scrum with only the Yankees reeling out of the gate. But whether they do or do not will not make that much of a difference to Toronto fans. What matters there is that for the first time in a long time, the fans in that "north-of-the-border" city truly believe their front office and ownership really went all out to bring them a winner. </div>

Baseball excitement back in Toronto

The tired old line from The Field of Dreams of, "Build it and they will come." does not really apply to the Toronto Blue Jays and...

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Josh Johnson featured in Big Leagues Magazine article

The new issue of Big Leagues Magazine is out and features an article by your favorite Fan on Josh Johnson and how he is ready to rock for the Toronto Blue Jays. Also featured in the magazine is a chock full of articles by great writers, fantasy and prospect information and much more. There is an interview with MLB Radio's Mike Ferrin as just one of the exciting features this issue.<br /><br />The magazine is holding an opening week subscription special that you might want to check out too. It's big, it's bold and it is beautiful. <a href="http://www.bigleaguesmag.com/" target="_blank">Big Leagues Magazine</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijc3Kc2pC9gnwKOWUYjAN79pDhzcBArGRhRMI9SC5Ww-Uv8PO_x94epv_H6RVdt1bVh0OLPNygdz72pkbv8D_OHdT8sdh8SIpmJ7kCXx2SjFK869bMUmzdi8D3gbwHNIu0IGyszyvI_Ek/s1600/April01Cover150.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijc3Kc2pC9gnwKOWUYjAN79pDhzcBArGRhRMI9SC5Ww-Uv8PO_x94epv_H6RVdt1bVh0OLPNygdz72pkbv8D_OHdT8sdh8SIpmJ7kCXx2SjFK869bMUmzdi8D3gbwHNIu0IGyszyvI_Ek/s1600/April01Cover150.jpg" /></a></div><br />

Josh Johnson featured in Big Leagues Magazine article

The new issue of Big Leagues Magazine is out and features an article by your favorite Fan on Josh Johnson and how he is ready to rock for th...

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Why Jose Reyes will be the AL MVP in 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">The fans in Toronto are really excited, and why shouldn't they be? For the first time in many years, the Blue Jays have some dynamic talent on the field and in the starting rotation. The American League East is wide open as every team has holes. The key to it all, from this office chair, is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-017jos,reyes-016jos,reyes-004jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Reyes</a></strong>. If Reyes stays healthy and has a good season, he will be the fire that lights up the rest of the Blue Jays lineup. If that happens, he could very well win the American League Most Valuable Player Award.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here is why it can happen:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Batted ball data from 2012 shows that Jose Reyes hit more ground balls in 2012 than he has since his 2005 season. While his line drive percentage has remained constant, his ground ball to fly ball ratio rose to 1.43 while with the Marlins. Perhaps because of the ground balls and perhaps because of data positioning, his BABIP was lower in 2012 than his career average.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It seems likely, considering his batted ball stats since 2007, that his ground ball rate will drop to previous levels. And even if his ground ball rate stays the same, since Rogers Centre has artificial turf, that same ground ball rate gives him a chance to raise his BABIP.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The turf can also increase his production of doubles and triples. Reyes has hit double-digit triples in seven of his last eight seasons. There is no reason why that will not continue in 2013. Most projection systems give him double-digits in triples but on the lower end of the scale. He could beat those projections. Reyes usually finishes with 30 or more doubles in a season. With the turf, that could increase to 40 with not too much difficulty. Add in ten or more homers and he should better his career .440 slugging percentage.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The quality of the hitters behind Reyes might just be the best he has ever played with. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a></strong>, PEDs or no PEDs, has really turned his career around and is a solid number two hitter who will allow Reyes to continue to steal bases with abandon. Reyes has stolen 79 bases in the last two combined seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After Cabrera comes <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong>. Bautista has the best plate discipline on the team and, though there is some concern from his wrist injury, he has to be figured being a dangerous hitter with a pile of walks. After Bautista comes <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong>, who became the Bautista of 2012 as he blossomed into one of the best combination power hitters and on-base guy in the American League last year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That top four can rival a lot of lineups around baseball. If they all perform, there is no reason Jose Reyes cannot score 110 runs or more.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Reyes has fallen off somewhat in his fielding statistics. Fangraphs rates him at a little more than three runs below average for the past two seasons. Baseball-reference.com is even harder on him at 17 runs below average for 2012. The turf at home can do two things. It can give him truer balls to field helping him a bit, or it can cause more balls to zip right by him thus causing him problems with his range scores.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But say he has a good season in the field and can play at least league average in the field. Then, all of his offensive rankings will add positively to his WAR total with a positional boost from playing shortstop.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Sure, this sounds like a lot of "ifs." But if Jose Reyes stays healthy, and if he has a good season in the field, Jose Reyes could be the spark that ignites the Blue Jays with his personality and his bat and legs. He seems to be in a perfect fit with the Blue Jays and the timing seems just right for him to have a big year. He is this site's predicted choice for the MVP in 2013. </div>

Why Jose Reyes will be the AL MVP in 2013

The fans in Toronto are really excited, and why shouldn't they be? For the first time in many years, the Blue Jays have some dynamic tal...

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Morrow and Johnson quite the one-two punch

Josh Johnson faced a split squad Braves team in Florida yesterday. But he still had to face the two Upton brothers and Heyward. The results were about as impressive as you could ask for. He pitched three and two-thirds innings and yielded no hits and no walks and struck out five. He has yet to walk a batter this spring and his strikeout to walk ratio is eight to zero. Yes, it is spring and it doesn't count. But, dang, that is impressive. Brandon Morrow has a five to one strikeout to walk ratio this spring. If these two stay healthy, the Toronto Blue Jays could have one of the best one-two punches in baseball.<br /><br />The knock on Josh Johnson for all these years is that he could not stay healthy. And indeed, four of his eight seasons have included him missing significant time. But, boy, when he has been healthy, he has been impressive. Well...that is until 2012. Suddenly, he looked quite ordinary despite staying healthy all of 2012. But his season was not quite as bad as the 8-14 record and the 3.81 ERA indicated. His FIP was lower at 3.40 and his WHIP was fairly respectable at 1.280.<br /><br />Johnson's struggles could have been trying to rebound from only making nine appearances from the year before. Now removed a year from his injury troubles of 2011, Johnson could be poised to start reeling off the kind of numbers that made everyone drool for a few seasons.<br /><br />I have been a champion of Brandon Morrow for years now. And he has also had some injury issues. He missed twelve more starts in 2012. But in the 21 starts he did make, he started to show that he was really putting it together. I've always thought his stuff was better than his results. He throws six different pitches and five of them are above average. His fastball hums along with an average over 93 MPH.<br /><br />And like I said, the results started to show last year. His WHIP was 1.115, an excellent number. He only gave up 7.1 hits per nine innings. His ERA was probably a little deceiving at 2.96 as his FIP was seventy-five points higher due mostly to a very low BABIP and a bit of a dip in his strikeout rate.<br /><br />But I believe in this guy and I always have. So, as I am looking at the pair of Morrow and Johnson, I see a dynamic duo waiting to happen. As always, the health of the pair will be a key. But if both stay healthy? Look out.<br /><br />And if that happens with R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle behind them, this Blue Jays team suddenly looks quite dangerous. The Blue Jays have to forget the money they have invested in Rickey Romero and scrap him from the rotation. Romero's spring numbers look as bad as his numbers from last season. He just has nothing in his bag of tricks that can get people out right now. J.A. Happ can probably hold the fifth position down better than Romero at this point. It wouldn't take much.<br /><br />But again, how can Toronto fans not be excited? If Dickey is anywhere close to where he was last year and Morrow and Johnson can blow through lineups, this team is silly in how good it can be. Most people look at the Marlins last year and point to how a good team on paper can fall flat in the season. But the same can be said the other way around. The Nationals were good on paper and were even more terrific in the season. Sometimes the talent pans out to what it looks like it should.<br /><br />The Blue Jays look like that kind of team. And it all starts with Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson. The two are ridiculously talented. They just need to put it together for one full season of healthy pitching. Both are good enough to win a Cy Young Award. If one of them does, remember that I'll be saying, "Told you so."

Morrow and Johnson quite the one-two punch

Josh Johnson faced a split squad Braves team in Florida yesterday. But he still had to face the two Upton brothers and Heyward. The results ...

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Six things you probably didn't know about Edwin Encarnación

<div style="text-align: justify;">Everybody is aware that the Toronto Blue Jays' <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong> went all Bautista on us in 2012 as he suddenly became a premier slugger in baseball. Everyone is aware that he hit 42 homers and slugged .557 en route to a .941 OPS. Everybody also wonders if he can repeat those numbers after coming from nowhere to have that kind of season. But there are things that you probably do not know about Encarnacion which may just hint that he is not a fluke.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">1. Edwin Encarnación hardly ever hits the ball on the ground. Of all qualifying batters in 2012, only <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Reddick</a></strong> of the A's had a lower ground ball to fly ball ratio and lower ground ball percentage. Only 33% of Encarnación's batted balls went on the ground for a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 0.67. And since 18.6% of those fly balls went over the fence, that is a good recipe for hitting homers. This is not a fluke as his career ratio is 0.80 and has been under 0.70 in two of his last three seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">2. He also has very good plate discipline for a bopper. He only swung at pitches outside the strike zone 24.5% of the time. That is the 25th lowest in baseball. And only 26 other baseball players (qualified for batting title) swung at less of a percentage of pitches than Encarnación who only swung at 41.6 percent of the pitches he saw in 2012. This shows that he has become adept at waiting for something he likes before pulling the trigger. The plate discipline is not a fluke as it was only one percentage point below his career average. The swing percentage was a marked improvement and could be one of the markers of his improved season. His career swing percentage is 46%.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">3. For a big guy who hits for power, he does not swing and miss very many pitches. Only 41 qualified batters swung and missed less than Edwin Encarnación's 7.1 swing and miss rate. In other words, he is not just up there hacking. His strikeout percentage was only 14.6%</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">4. You can't pitch him fast or slow. Encarnación had the fourth highest pitch value against the fastball in 2012. His prowess versus the fastball was 30 wFB. He was also tied for fourth best against the change up. And he was seventh best against the curve. So what DO you throw this guy? Good luck with that.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">5. He is a better than average base runner. Not only is it somewhat rare for a slugger to be good on the bases, but he is surprisingly effective at stealing. He doesn't do it a lot, but in 26 attempts over the past two seasons, he has been successful 21 times good for an 80.8% success rate. And that rate exactly matches his career success rate when attempting to steal a base.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">6. His 2012 season was as good as it was despite a .266 BABIP. The low BABIP makes some sense since he hits so many fly balls. But still. He hit .286 despite a .266 BABIP. Can you imagine if a few more things dropped in for him? His career BABIP is .280, so he was a bit unlucky in 2012.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There you have it--six things you probably did not know about Edwin Encarnación. Those six things--especially the first five--show at least to this observer that like Bautista before him, Encarnación's season was not a fluke and that he can repeat what he showed us in 2012. </div>

Six things you probably didn't know about Edwin Encarnación

Everybody is aware that the Toronto Blue Jays' Edwin Encarnacion went all Bautista on us in 2012 as he suddenly became a premier slugg...

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Dickey's high cost would bring short term rewards for Blue Jays

<div style="text-align: justify;">The pending trade between the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays has people buzzing. Opinions have been bandied about everywhere. While one more voice on the subject might get lost in the cacophony, here is the Fan's take on the deal as it stands in the <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/mets-notes-dickey-blue-jays-darnaud-syndergaard.html" target="_blank">rumor mill</a>. The deal, if completed, makes the Blue Jays a mighty tough team in the American League East and an instant darling for projections. But it would cost the Blue Jays beyond a two and three year period.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Despite the fact that the Mets may be feeding out nuggets about Dickey to the local media in New York to paint the pitcher in a negative light (see Davidoff's column yesterday for example), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">R.A. Dickey</a></strong> is a great pitcher whose three year track record seems too good to think he will crumble any time soon. He was 11-5 last season against teams with an above .500 record so don't buy the thought that he will crumble in the AL East. If you take any rotation and remove <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">J.A. Happ</a></strong> and insert R.A. Dickey, you are adding three wins to the rotation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Then look at that rotation from top to bottom: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsjo09,johnso011jos,johnso012jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Johnson</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong>, R.A. Dickey, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ricky Romero</a></strong>. That is pretty sweet and should rival any rotation in the American League. Add that to the additions on offense and the Blue Jays--at least on paper--are mighty impressive.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So, yes, this deal makes a lot of sense for the Blue Jays and bringing <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tholejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Thole</a></strong>, who is used to catching Dickey, along for the ride makes sense even if <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buckjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Buck</a></strong> should be a slightly more valuable catcher.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And don't buy the arguments that Dickey is 38 and will fade after another year or so. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niekrph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Phil Niekro</a></strong>, another knuckleball pitcher, pitched effectively for seven years past his 38th birthday. Dickey has found himself and it is irrelevant at what age he found it. His consistency the last three years should put aside all doubts.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But then there is the cost. And it is steep. Basically you are trading away seven years of cheap control on two (albeit unproven) talents in Travis d'Arnaud and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=synder001noa&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Noah Syndergaard</a></strong>. As an aside: Do the Blue Jays have any prospects that are easy to spell!?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Anyway, d'Arnaud is a major offensive talent that has some question marks about where he will play in the field. He was drafted a catcher, but some, including the Blue Jays, question his defensive ability behind the plate. He played quite a bit of first base and DH this past season in the minors. But the guy seems to be a "can't miss" offensive player who could preferably play behind the plate adequately.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It is hard not to drool at Syndergaard's minor league stats thus far in his two short years at the lowest level in the minors. A K/9 rate over ten and a BB/9 rate under three is a pretty sweet combination. He is six foot, five inches which is just want you want to develop an incredible downward angle at the plate.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He is too young and new to have made any top prospect lists. But Syndergaard was a 38th overall pick in the 2010 draft.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Your host here has always subscribed to the "prospects are lottery tickets" theory. The odds are better than the lottery, but a prospect becoming the player projected once he gets to the big leagues is always a long shot. A proven commodity like Dickey for two lottery tickets does make short term sense if short term means three years or so.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But if d'Arnaud and Syndergaard find success in the big leagues once they arrive, this deal will be discussed for many years to come...if it happens, that is. </div>

Dickey's high cost would bring short term rewards for Blue Jays

The pending trade between the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays has people buzzing. Opinions have been bandied about everywhere. While one...

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November news dominated by the Blue Jays

<div style="text-align: justify;">Is the power shifting in the American League East? If the amount of news generated by the Blue Jays in November is any indication, perhaps it is. While the Red Sox quietly try to figure out and dig out of last year's fiasco and the Yankees, the richest team in the world, suddenly shop at K-Mart, the Blue Jays have made headline after headline culminating with naming John Gibbons today as their new manager. Time will tell if all the moves turn that franchise around. But you cannot help admire the effort.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">All a team's fan base can hope for is that the home team does all it can to put a winning team on the field the following season. The Blue Jays, who have long fallen since <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cartejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe Carter</a></strong> hit that walk-off homer off of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willimi02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mitch Williams</a></strong> have spent the last two off seasons piling up minor league talent and used that talent this off season to dramatically remake the major league team.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Blue Jays via the trade with the Marlins and with a free agent signing have picked up <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-004jos,reyes-016jos,reyes-017jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Reyes</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsjo09,johnso011jos,johnso012jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Johnson</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buehrma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Buehrle</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bonifem01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Emilio Bonifacio</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buckjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Buck</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Melky Cabrera</a></strong>. In the process, from the major league team, they subtracted <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobyu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Yunel Escobar</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adeiny Hechavarria</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarhe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Henderson Alvarez</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeff Mathis</a></strong> (along with three prospects).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The best way to summarize their work is to compare the new players to what the Blue Jays fielded at those positions last season:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Jose Reyes versus Yunel Escobar: Reyes is a year younger (29,30) and has averaged 3.68 rWAR over the last seven seasons. Escobar has averaged 3.08 over the last six years. Reyes is noted for his enthusiasm and ability to spark his teammates and his average WAR would be higher if injuries had not shortened two of his seasons. Escobar has now been given up on by his last two organizations amid questions concerning his makeup. Big win here for the Blue Jays ephemerally and a +0.60 win per season. The Blue Jays do lose some on the defensive side of the equation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Melky Cabrera versus <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Rajai Davis</a></strong>: Cabrera's addition means that Davis and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gosean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Anthony Gose</a></strong> fall back on the depth chart. Again, the Blue Jays will give up some defense with the move. But drugs or no drugs, Cabrera is a clear upgrade here. Even if you want to discount his last two seasons with over four wins above replacement in each (and this writer says that is poppycock), Cabrera has averaged 1.9 rWAR for his seven full major league seasons. Rajai Davis was worth 0.5 rWAR as the primary left fielder for the Blue Jays with no on-base skills whatsoever. Anthony Gose finished out the season out there and fared worse. This is at the least, a one win improvement for the Blue Jays and at best, a three win improvement.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Mark Buehrle versus Henderson Alvarez: This is sort of an unfair comparison as Alvarez is only 22 years old. And the two pitchers' approach to the game is similar. Ground balls. Contact. Alvarez could grind out the kind of career that Buehrle has. But it is hard to argue with Buehrle's track record. He has made over 30 starts for twelve straight seasons. His average season is a 4.05 rWAR season. Until Alvarez can pitch with that kind of success and longevity, this is a clear win for the Blue Jays to the tune of three wins gained.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">John Buck versus Jeff Mathis: It seems plausible that the Blue Jays will not keep Buck but trade him for another piece. Either way, he is probably a back up and not the starter. Buck did have his best season as a member of the Blue Jays in 2010 but has fallen on hard times since. Mathis is younger but the two catchers have been around for nearly the same length of major league service. Buck has a career OPS+ of 85 while Mathis has a career OPS+ of 58. Oof. The defensive end is not that far apart as Buck has been below average at throwing out runners at 25% while Mathis has been below average at 26%. Buck has averaged 0.37 rWAR per season and Mathis 0.2. A slight gain here by the Blue Jays.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Josh Johnson versus <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/laffeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Aaron Laffey</a></strong>(?): The Blue Jays never really did have a fourth or fifth starter. Aaron Laffey gamely tried to hold down the position due to injuries and such. And he did better than expected and garnered 0.5 rWAR for his effort. Josh Johnson's season in 2012 was a bit of a puzzle. He finally found a healthy season and made 31 starts after years of wondrous promise and lack of health. But looking at his peripherals, he wasn't that far off his successful seasons and a 3.83 ERA for the Blue Jays would be super cool for a team that never seems to have enough pitching. Even with the injuries and the tough season last season, Johnson has averaged 3.42 rWAR per season. Again, at the very least, this is a three win pickup and could be even higher if Johnson becomes dominant again.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">John Gibbons versus <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=farrejo03,farrejo02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Farrell</a></strong>: Perhaps this a judgement statement and that's just how it goes sometimes. But from this viewpoint, Farrell was a dead fish in Toronto. His bench body language was awful. His personality a dud. And the team did not seem to respond to him at all. Gibbons was hooted out of Toronto his first time as their manager. But the guy does seem to ooze more confidence and has a much better personality. And geez, how much influence does a manager have anyway?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">By count, so far, these deals have at a minimum, added ten wins with their deals so far. A healthy <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong> would add another three wins and now we're starting to cook here in Toronto. Of course, anything can happen and teams will surprise us in both the negative and the positive. Time will tell. But check out the Blue Jays' potential lineup:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;">Jose Reyes - SS</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Melky Cabrera - LF</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Jose Bautista - RF</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnacion</a></strong> - DH</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong> - 3B</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kelly Johnson</a></strong> - 2B</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong> - CF</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Lind</a></strong> - 1B</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Buck / Arencibia - C</li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That's pretty darned impressive. Now lets look at their rotation:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Morrow</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;">Mark Buehrle</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Josh Johnson</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romerri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ricky Romero</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">J.A. Happ</a></strong></li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Pretty strong one through four there. The team still needs to consider its bullpen, but overall, the Toronto Blue Jays have become a talented and potentially potent team. The fans up in Toronto must be thrilled and excited and who could blame them. </div>

November news dominated by the Blue Jays

Is the power shifting in the American League East? If the amount of news generated by the Blue Jays in November is any indication, perhaps i...

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