The Flagrant Fan Blogs: Manager of the Year

<div style="text-align: justify;">In yesterday's post, I gave you my choice for the American League Manager of the Year. And while there were six viable choices for that award in that league, there are only really four choices in the National League. And as such, I will break things down between those four candidates and make my NL selection. Please keep in mind, like yesterday, there is no clear process for evaluating a manager. There are no stats kept on in-game moves to draw upon. There is no way to measure or understand the value of a manager in the clubhouse or in the dugout. Any selection for this award is strictly subjective. I would not quibble if the final pick went to any of the four on this list.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The four candidates are <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mattido01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Don  Mattingly</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hurdlcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clint  Hurdle</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike  Matheny</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzafr99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Fredi  Gonzalez</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It is funny how Don  Mattingly went from a terrible manager in the early part of the season to a brilliant one once Puig showed up and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hanley  Ramirez</a></strong> got healthy. That only goes to prove that it is the players who win and lose games and not the manager. The fact is that Mattingly was the same guy all season. He stayed the course when things were bad and rode the wave when things were good. You have to give him credit for perseverance. He had some injury trouble all season too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But I have some reservations. With the run differential, they should have won three less games than they did. But, Mattingly did not come across as strong when there was a backlash against Puig for some of Puig's more misguided adventures. Mattingly seemed more reactionary to that situation than strong. In my mind, Mattingly should have come out strong for Puig saying that Puig was his guy and then worked with him behind the scenes. Instead, Mattingly seemed to get buffeted by the public opinion and pulled Puig in the middle of games and sat him at other times. I just don't think it was handled well. Of course, I could be all wet as I am sitting thousands of miles away.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Mike  Matheny is a strong candidate. Not only did he allow the young pitchers to flourish instead of that loyalty crap and sticking with veterans, but he handled each of them really well. He protected them when he should have and let them go when he should have. Plus, his team of coaches really handled the offense well and their approach was magnificent. I don't think that is an accident. The players have to buy in to an approach and that happened here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I do have one problem with Matheny as a candidate. According to the Pythagorean win-loss statistic, based on the run differential, the Cardinals should have won four more games than they did.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fredi  Gonzalez will never get much love when it comes to this award. Heck, even his own fan base rails against him all the time. Apparently, nobody likes his in-game decisions and the feeling is that his teams win in spite of him and not because of him. I do not know if that is fair or not.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Two things seem to balance out over the course of the season. First, he stuck with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/medlekr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kris  Medlen</a></strong> in the rotation despite a rough start to the season. You can perhaps say that he had nobody else. But even so, that was a great decision as Medlen became great in the second half. On the other hand, he stuck with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dan  Uggla</a></strong> for far too long and how could Dan  Uggla and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">B.J.  Upton</a></strong> have been so bad.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Gonzalez did make a nice move when he shifted <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason  Heyward</a></strong> to the lead-off spot. The win streak that happened after that could all be just coincident. The Braves were two games behind their Pythagorean win-loss record. I know I rely on that stat too much, but I do think it matters at least a little.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That brings us to Clint  Hurdle. According to (I know, here we go again) the Pythagorean thing, the Pirates should have won 88 games. They won 94. We have not seen that sort of thing since <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sciosmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike  Scioscia</a></strong>'s glory years with the Angels. But Hurdle's unbridled enthusiasm kept the Pirates buoyant through the tough times and in the end, crushed the Reds when it mattered.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates really are not a Cinderella team. Their steps of improvement last year make this year seem like a natural progression. But like my Francona choice in the AL, Clint  Hurdles made less work more for the Pirates all season. He handled his bullpen brilliantly and despite a challenged offense, made it work to the tune of 94 wins and came within a disastrous series against the Cardinals of winning the division.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Clint  Hurdle is my choice for the NL Manager of the Year. I would not be unhappy if Matheny wins as I think he was excellent as well.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">My overall ranking of NL Managers:</div><br /><ol><li style="text-align: justify;">Clint  Hurdle</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Mike  Matheny</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Don  Mattingly</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Fredi  Gonzalez</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Davey  Johnson</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collite99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Terry  Collins</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackbu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bud  Black</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoki01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kirk  Gibson</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dusty  Baker</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/redmomi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike  Redmond</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roeniro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ron  Roenicke</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bruce  Bochy</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weisswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Walt  Weiss</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sveumda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dale  Sveum</a></strong></li></ol><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">I did not count any for Philadelphia because they switched mid-season. </div>

National League Manager of the Year

In yesterday's post, I gave you my choice for the American League Manager of the Year. And while there were six viable choices for that ...

+ Read more »

<div style="text-align: justify;">Selecting one Major League manager over another is truly a subjective enterprise. How do you measure managers? I have tried over the course of this site's history to try to figure out such a system. It does not work. I have looked at Pythagorean Win-Loss figures. I have looked at other models and methods of measuring a manager. Nothing solid comes from the exercises. How can <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=farrejo03,farrejo02,farrel010joh&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John  Farrell</a></strong> be a terrible manager in Toronto and then great in Boston? Were the Yankees lucky to win as many games with their talent or did <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/girarjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe  Girardi</a></strong> do a masterful job? There really is no way to quantify it. And yet, there is this award given to managers every year. So our job as baseball writers is to figure it out...somehow.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There are no shortage of candidates in the American League. You have the aforementioned Girardi and Farrell. You have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Terry  Francona</a></strong>, who, in his first year, got the Indians into the post season and won 92 games. You have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melvibo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bob  Melvin</a></strong> of the Oakland A's. You have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maddojo99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe  Maddon</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/washiro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ron  Washington</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leylaji99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jim  Leyland</a></strong>. All of these managers had teams that performed admirably and most at least gave their teams a shot at the post season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I have pluses and minuses for each one. Jim  Leyland, for example, refuses to join the 21st Century game and only finished a game above the Indians, a team they thrashed in head-to-head competition. Joe  Girardi did seem to get the most out of his awful, injury-riddled and aging team. He is the master of bullpen manipulation. But at the same time, he stuck with guys too long like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Vernon  Wells</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/overbly01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Lyle  Overbay</a></strong>. Some will argue that he had nobody else. There is always somebody else.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Francona's team was terrible against the Tigers. Joe  Maddon is the master of the metrics and for motivating his team (or so we are told). But he gets too cute at times and moves too many players around too often. Ron  Washington gets criticized often for his love of the bunt and other on-field decisions. The Red Sox should have won even more than 97 games with their run differential. There are hardly clear-cut answers here. But somebody has to win.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I have boiled down my three choices to Terry  Francona, John  Farrell and Bob  Melvin.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Melvin's team, the A's, proved that last year was not a fluke. They finished dead on with their run differential. They should have won 96 games and they won 96 games. They also had three awful teams in their division that they played nineteen times a piece in the Mariners, Angels and Astros.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Melvin got the nod last year because his team was considered a surprise. They were not a surprise this year. Does that rule him out? It shouldn't.  But again, I am rattled a bit by the competition in his division. Even the Rangers were not as strong as past years.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">John  Farrell certainly got rid of the bad mojo left behind by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valenbo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bobby  Valentine</a></strong>. With a few exceptions, his team performed brilliantly and stayed relatively healthy. He caught a break when his first two choices for closers came up lame and Uehara became the best relief pitcher in the American League. I cannot get beyond the fact that with the Red Sox scoring so much and pitching so well, their Pythagorean win-loss record was 100 wins and they won 97. And how could he go from being so terrible in Toronto to being so good in Boston?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There was that record against the Tigers. But Francona did finish one game behind the Tigers and won 92 games. According to their run differential, they should have won 90. So that is a plus. Then, Francona also had 38 games against the Twins and the White Sox which was a similar argument against Melvin.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But my choice comes down to Francona. Again, I would not argue if any of these guys won because it is so subjective. My final reason for picking Terry  Francona is that he won 92 games despite an offense that finished eighth out of fifteen AL teams in OPS and seventh in pitching ERA. In other words, his team won with less talent than the Red Sox, the A's and the Tigers. And unlike Farrell, Francona's track record speaks for itself.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here is my final (yes, subjective) list (I would fire the last six):</div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;">Terry  Francona</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Bob  Melvin</li><li style="text-align: justify;">John  Farrell</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Joe  Girardi</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Joe  Maddon</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Jim  Leyland</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/showabu99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Buck  Showalter</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;">Ron  Washington</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/portebo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bo  Porter</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yostne01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ned  Yost</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sciosmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike  Scioscia</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gardero01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ron  Gardenhire</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wedgeer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Eric  Wedge</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibbojo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John  Gibbons</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/venturo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robin  Ventura</a></strong></li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

American League Manager of the Year - Terry Francona

Selecting one Major League manager over another is truly a subjective enterprise. How do you measure managers? I have tried over the course ...

+ Read more »