The DH - Where I get NL fans mad at me again

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">National League fans are adamant, and I get it. We baseball people do not like people messing with our game. Even though replay worked great (IMHO) this past year, many still hate it because it takes away the "charm" of human error. But that human error cost teams World Series titles in the past. NL fans, pitchers batting has got to go. It doesn't cost games, but it sure costs enjoyment.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's break this down a bit into numbers. NL pitchers when batting as a group did not have as high an OPS as what is borderline acceptable as an on-base percentage. The group OPS of all NL pitchers last season was .312. OPS combines on-base percentage with slugging percentage. This is a terrible number.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How terrible? The league as a whole had an average OPS of .694. Therefore, collectively, pitchers' offense was 45% as good as league batters as a whole. NL pitchers when batting struck out 36.4% of their plate appearances. Pitchers walked only 3% of the time. And here is the part that gets me the most: Pitchers sacrificed bunted (successfully) 10.2% of their plate appearances.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's put some of this in perspective. NL pitchers came to the plate 5,141 times last year. They actually reached base a grand total of 722 times. That works out to an on-base percentage of .140. Let me clarify that point briefly. NL pitchers' official on-base percentage was .156. Why am I getting a different number? Sacrifice bunts.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">An OBP and an OPS do not penalize a player for successful sacrifice bunts (or for sac flies for that matter). I have never agreed with this statistical anomaly. Whether a sacrifice is successful or not, the batter made an out. Yes, a runner got to second or third, but an out was still recorded.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Those numbers are bad enough. But there are other consequences. Pitchers having to bat means a greater reliance on pinch hitters. National League pinch hitters put up this unlovely triple slash line in 2014: .210/ .286/.319. That .605 OPS is second to only pitchers in futility among "positions." Their help only brought up the ninth spot in the lineup up to a grand total of a .444 OPS. Pinch hitters struck out 27% of the time. Heck, the pitcher could have done that!</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It doesn't stop there.  The eighth place batter in a National League lineup becomes a moot point. The National League had a combined .625 OPS from the eighth spot in the batting order. Compare that with the American League which had a .680 OPS from their eighth position in the batting order.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh, and get this: That OPS is deceptive too. With the pitchers batting ninth, the eighth place batter often gets intentionally walked even if it is a weak hitter. The eighth place batters had fifty more intentional walks than any other lineup position, even the big boys in the third spot.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We are not really talking apples to apples here, but the National League scored 561 runs less than the American League in 2014.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If the commissioner is interested in improving offense and is concerned about the current run scoring climate, making the DH universal is a good place to start and is much better than outlawing shifts.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The long-term trends of pitcher batting have shown a gradual decline. Sacrifice bunts are up four percentage points from where they were in the early 1960s. OPS figures have stayed fairly static since 1961, but again, with sacrifice bunts trending up, the OPS is deceptive. The strikeout rate has always been high, but has spiked the last two seasons. The chart below starts with the 1961 season on the left and tracks the percentages to the present as you move right.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Pitchers-batting.png" href="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Pitchers-batting.png" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="Pitchers batting" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13611" data-mce-src="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Pitchers-batting.png" height="524" src="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Pitchers-batting.png" style="clear: both; color: #444444; display: block; height: auto; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px auto 12px; max-width: 100%;" width="635" /></span></a></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This decline makes a lot of sense really. In the old days, a pitcher would bat consistently through high school, college and the minor leagues. Today, most colleges use the DH and if a pitcher is drafted by an American League team, then the pitcher never hits. If that same pitcher gets traded to a National League organization, suddenly he has to hit and it might have been a few years since high school.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Plus, pitchers are much more valued (read "babied") than in the past. Most pitchers are encouraged to protect themselves when batting and not to run at full strength.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The weekly reality of interleague games also puts new wrinkles into the entire argument. National League teams are not constructed to have an offensive player available as the DH and suffers in AL parks. And if you think NL pitchers are terrible at batting, they are all <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> compared to AL pitchers who have to hit in NL parks.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">American League pitchers put together this triple slash line when batting last year: .090/.110/.109. In 154 such games, AL pitchers got on base a grand total of 35 times. It is a joke and a travesty to baseball. Making AL pitchers hit is like asking an NFL punter to play one game a year at offensive tackle. AL pitchers have a strikeout rate of over 40% when batting. Pathetic.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If you make the DH the norm for all interleague games, you are punishing NL teams that do not plan roster spots for DH types. So that doesn't make for an easy solution.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I know there is a lot of passion in this area of conversation. I'm sure two of my friends who cover the St. Louis Cardinals are glaring at me as they read this. But times have changed. Tickets cost too much to have to watch a woefully skilled batter being sent up to the plate. Times have also changed in college and in the minor leagues. Pitchers had a chance at the plate sixty years ago. They do not now. It is time to make things universal instead of the two leagues playing with different rules.</span></div>

The DH - Where I get NL fans mad at me again

National League fans are adamant, and I get it. We baseball people do not like people messing with our game. Even though replay worked great...

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National League Manager of the Year

<div style="text-align: justify;">In yesterday's post, I gave you my choice for the American League Manager of the Year. And while there were six viable choices for that award in that league, there are only really four choices in the National League. And as such, I will break things down between those four candidates and make my NL selection. Please keep in mind, like yesterday, there is no clear process for evaluating a manager. There are no stats kept on in-game moves to draw upon. There is no way to measure or understand the value of a manager in the clubhouse or in the dugout. Any selection for this award is strictly subjective. I would not quibble if the final pick went to any of the four on this list.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The four candidates are <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mattido01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Don Mattingly</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hurdlcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clint Hurdle</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Matheny</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzafr99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Fredi Gonzalez</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It is funny how Don Mattingly went from a terrible manager in the early part of the season to a brilliant one once Puig showed up and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hanley Ramirez</a></strong> got healthy. That only goes to prove that it is the players who win and lose games and not the manager. The fact is that Mattingly was the same guy all season. He stayed the course when things were bad and rode the wave when things were good. You have to give him credit for perseverance. He had some injury trouble all season too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But I have some reservations. With the run differential, they should have won three less games than they did. But, Mattingly did not come across as strong when there was a backlash against Puig for some of Puig's more misguided adventures. Mattingly seemed more reactionary to that situation than strong. In my mind, Mattingly should have come out strong for Puig saying that Puig was his guy and then worked with him behind the scenes. Instead, Mattingly seemed to get buffeted by the public opinion and pulled Puig in the middle of games and sat him at other times. I just don't think it was handled well. Of course, I could be all wet as I am sitting thousands of miles away.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Mike Matheny is a strong candidate. Not only did he allow the young pitchers to flourish instead of that loyalty crap and sticking with veterans, but he handled each of them really well. He protected them when he should have and let them go when he should have. Plus, his team of coaches really handled the offense well and their approach was magnificent. I don't think that is an accident. The players have to buy in to an approach and that happened here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I do have one problem with Matheny as a candidate. According to the Pythagorean win-loss statistic, based on the run differential, the Cardinals should have won four more games than they did.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fredi Gonzalez will never get much love when it comes to this award. Heck, even his own fan base rails against him all the time. Apparently, nobody likes his in-game decisions and the feeling is that his teams win in spite of him and not because of him. I do not know if that is fair or not.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Two things seem to balance out over the course of the season. First, he stuck with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/medlekr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kris Medlen</a></strong> in the rotation despite a rough start to the season. You can perhaps say that he had nobody else. But even so, that was a great decision as Medlen became great in the second half. On the other hand, he stuck with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dan Uggla</a></strong> for far too long and how could Dan Uggla and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">B.J. Upton</a></strong> have been so bad.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Gonzalez did make a nice move when he shifted <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a></strong> to the lead-off spot. The win streak that happened after that could all be just coincident. The Braves were two games behind their Pythagorean win-loss record. I know I rely on that stat too much, but I do think it matters at least a little.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That brings us to Clint Hurdle. According to (I know, here we go again) the Pythagorean thing, the Pirates should have won 88 games. They won 94. We have not seen that sort of thing since <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sciosmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Scioscia</a></strong>'s glory years with the Angels. But Hurdle's unbridled enthusiasm kept the Pirates buoyant through the tough times and in the end, crushed the Reds when it mattered.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates really are not a Cinderella team. Their steps of improvement last year make this year seem like a natural progression. But like my Francona choice in the AL, Clint Hurdles made less work more for the Pirates all season. He handled his bullpen brilliantly and despite a challenged offense, made it work to the tune of 94 wins and came within a disastrous series against the Cardinals of winning the division.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Clint Hurdle is my choice for the NL Manager of the Year. I would not be unhappy if Matheny wins as I think he was excellent as well.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">My overall ranking of NL Managers:</div><br /><ol><li style="text-align: justify;">Clint Hurdle</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Mike Matheny</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Don Mattingly</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Fredi Gonzalez</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Davey Johnson</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collite99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Terry Collins</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackbu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bud Black</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoki01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kirk Gibson</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerdu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dusty Baker</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/redmomi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Redmond</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roeniro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ron Roenicke</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bochybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bruce Bochy</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weisswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Walt Weiss</a></strong></li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sveumda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dale Sveum</a></strong></li></ol><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">I did not count any for Philadelphia because they switched mid-season. </div>

National League Manager of the Year

In yesterday's post, I gave you my choice for the American League Manager of the Year. And while there were six viable choices for that ...

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Crowded field for National League MVP

<div style="text-align: justify;"><!-- NOTE: some names the b-r linker matched have multiple, possible player id matches. Leave this as is or search for "results=" to select a desired player/id pairing. You may remove this comment. --> The Most Valuable Player Award is one of the most confusing awards in baseball. The Cy Young Award is easy: Who was the best pitcher in the league? But the MVP is difficult because nobody can agree on who should be considered. The problem comes from the word, "Valuable," stuck in the middle of the award's name. Value based on what? Based on WAR? Based on runs batted in or homers? Does the value have to be to a contending team for it to count? After all, to paraphrase an old general manager, a team finished in last place with a valuable player, it can finish in last place without him. If the award was called the Player of the Year, it would be easier. But it isn't. 2012 gives us a crowded field of MVP contenders, so these questions all come into play.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So who are the contenders? Well, there is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Wright</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yadier Molina</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/headlch01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chase Headley</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bournmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Michael Bourn</a></strong> and perhaps <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a></strong>. That is a lot of contenders for the award. And on both stats sites, Fangraphs.com and Baseball-reference.com, several of them are bunched up in those site's WAR valuations. Last year was a little easier as the two contenders were Braun and Matt Kemp. McCutchen was in the conversation too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">How did that race break down since the play of the two players were similar. One led one site in WAR and the other led the competing stat site in WAR. It appears that Braun won because his team was a contender and the Dodgers were not. And personally, that seems fair. The Dodgers were never a factor in any race, whether it be the wild card or the division race. That would have been the case with or without Kemp.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The one problem with this way of thinking is putting so much value upon a player for a team's contending success. A contending team needs so many things to happen in order to contend. It sounds simple to simply say they have to score more runs than they allow on a regular basis. But so much is involved in that equation. The schedule, injuries, the pitching, the defense, "clutch" hitting and to a small degree, the manager and coaching. Even if a player has a monster year, giving him too much credit for that contending team is questionable. If a great player cannot elevate a terrible team, how much does a great player then elevate a good team? Do you see how that is not a correlation and there is a logic conundrum there?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the course of writing these thoughts out, the feeling that the award has to go to a contending team's player is not in personal jeopardy. The award is not called, the "Most Valuable Player to his Contending Team" Award. In fact, the thinking is now almost reversed itself. Should the award go to a player that brings the most value to his team? That would simply bring the award to the guy with the highest WAR. The trouble with doing that is that the two sites listed rarely agree. Verlander was much more highly rated last year on one site over the other. Gosh this is confusing, especially in light of so many contenders for the award. Fortunately, there are no pitchers close in the NL to the position player's WAR totals, so we can save the debate on whether pitchers should win for another day.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is another problem to which player is the most valuable to his team concept. When great players dominate bad teams, those bad teams are not going to have much for total team WAR. For example, Mets' batters have accounted for the grand total of 11.5 rWAR. With David Wright's total of 6.4 rWAR, he accounts for 57.1% of his team's WAR. A couple of years ago, the Pirates finished with a negative WAR for the team and McCutchen was at like six by himself. The math on that boggles the mind. This season, the Pirates are a contending team and McCutchen accounts for 46.8% of his team's total batting WAR.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Oh man, we are not getting anywhere are we? This much can be said, rightly or no, public opinion believes that Ryan Braun got away with a technicality on this PED thing. In other words, most people think he was guilty but got off on a forensic snafu. No matter how he fares this season and how much he elevates the Brewers in their last ditch effort to sneak into the wild card mix, he will probably not get the vote this season after winning it last year under what many feel was false pretenses. That is not the personal opinion here. It just states the obvious.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">With all the messiness already involved here, the only thing left to do is to assign the award to the player of the year. Who was the best player? One equation this writer would take out would be the part that fielding plays in current WAR evaluations. Fielding metrics are not universally loved and trusted. At least they are not yet. And again, the way the fielding metrics are measured varies from stat site to stat site. So that has to be factored in to some of the valuation methods.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For example, a lot of Michael Bourn's worth is tied up in his fielding. Of his 6.1 fWAR, perhaps as high as two of those wins come as a result of his fielding metrics. Until we can pin this fielding thing more closely to where most people agree they are the bomb, they should not be included in the MVP discussion.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After boiling all this down, the top contenders for this observer are Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun and Buster Posey. Not only are all three at the top of the WAR leaderboards, but all three are the only NL players above .400 in wOBA and above 160 in wRC+. If the season ended today, the pick would be Ryan Braun.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

Crowded field for National League MVP

The Most Valuable Player Award is one of the most confusing awards in baseball. The Cy Young Award is easy: Who was the best pitcher in ...

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