The Flagrant Fan Blogs: NL Rookie of the Year Award

<div style="text-align: justify;">Picking a favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award is always complicated when the two best candidates are a pitcher and a position player. The two candidates that rise above all other National League rookies are <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Wade  Miley</a></strong> of the Diamondbacks and that Harper kid from the Nationals that you may have heard about. Harper, of course, has gotten all the attention and his every move is documented. And rightly so. He just turned nineteen and has all the tools and desire to be a star in the league for years to come. Plus, his team has made the playoffs after a 31 year absence. All of those things make Harper attractive and he has to be the favorite with sports writers due to familiarity and...well...hubris. But there is a stronger candidate from this observation post who has not been the toast of the town and his team is not in the playoffs--Wade  Miley.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Again, it's a bit difficult to pick between apples and oranges. WAR tries to bridge that argument. But though it is a good starting point, WAR is not the total answer. Here is how the sites rate the two players in WAR:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Baseball-reference.com:  Miley - 3.5, Harper - 4.5</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Fangraphs.com: Miley - 4.5 , Harper - 4.6</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Baseball Prospectus: Miley - 2.6 ,Harper - 3.9</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you go simply by WAR, it would appear to be Harper as he averages over the three sites at 4.33 compared to Miley's 3.2 average. But again. WAR is just a starting point.  All the sites build a position player's fielding into their equation and nobody can agree on the best system for measuring fielding and nobody is real happy with what we currently have. A full 1.2 wins for fielding are part of Fangraphs' valuation, for example.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">WPA is another item we can look at. Win Probability Added measures how much a player's efforts added to or took away from a team's effort to win ballgames during the course of the season. Harper has the edge here again as his WPA on B-R is 1.6 and at Fangraphs is 2.12. Miley's WPA are 1.22 on B-R and 1.20 on Fangraphs.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yeah, it looks like a case is being built for Harper. But there is more. Let's compare Harper's OPS+ to Miley's ERA+. Harper's OPS+ is 115 compared to Miley's 128. In other words, compared to league average (use 100 as a round number), Harper is 15 points above all league average batters whereas Miley is 28 points above league average pitchers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is also their relative rank to the leaderboard. Harper (according to Fangraphs) is the 29th best position player in baseball this season. Miley is the 13th best pitcher. Miley is also eighth among all starters in home runs per nine innings allowed despite pitching half his games in Arizona where the ball flies. Miley is also eighth in walks allowed per nine innings, which for a rookie, is amazing. On the other hand, Harper is not among the top ten in any of the major offensive categories.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Miley pitches in one of the worst parks for pitchers in baseball. Even so, his OPS against is better at home than it is on the road. He led the Diamondbacks' starters in ERA, WHIP, BB/9 and SO/BB ratio. Harper led his team in runs scored. That's it.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Don't get the post wrong. Harper is an exciting young player who is going to provide his team value for years to come. But to choose one rookie that stood out in terms of team performance, home ballparks, and overall comparison with the league's players, Wade  Miley has had a more impressive rookie season. </div>

Why Wade Miley should be Rookie of the Year

Picking a favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award is always complicated when the two best candidates are a pitcher and a position player. ...

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<div style="text-align: justify;">You thought this post was going to be about Trout. Right? We all know now where Vineland, New Jersey is because of that Angels' outfielder. But this post is not about him. He already has the Rookie of the Year Award wrapped up in the American League. Even Darvish is miles behind in the rear-view mirror. No, this post is about a kid from Point Pleasant, New Jersey. His name is <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frazito01.shtml" target="_blank">Todd Frazier</a></b>. And Mr. Frazier has quietly been a big part of the new Big Red Machine in Cincinnati. Of course, this writer was born and raised in New Jersey so all of this is quite exciting.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Unlike Mr. Trout, Todd Frazier is not a babe on the baseball diamond. He is not nineteen or twenty. He is twenty-six. He was a first round draft pick back in 2007. Unlike Trout and Harper, the other big news-maker this season, Frazier did not have an immediate rise through the Reds' system. It took Frazier five years to get his cup of coffee in the 2011 season. Part of the problem was that Frazier was drafted as a shortstop. Like most kids drafted as shortstops, he was not very good at it.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So Frazier was bounced around the field. In the minors, he played short, third, second, first and left field. Third base seems to be his best position. And Frazier's bat did not mistake him for that other kid from New Jersey. His first year in 2007, he lit up Rookie ball pretty well, but with no power. The power came on in 2008 in A and A+ ball. Frazier started in Double-A in 2009 and he was promoted to Triple-A. Between the two of them, he put up an .832 OPS. That's good, but not spectacular.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He had a little bit of a dip in 2010, all in Triple-A as his OPS dipped to .781. It was his batting average that dipped the most. The average did not return in 2011 and his OPS rose only to .806. He did get a call up from the Reds and got his feet wet in the majors in 2011. The results were somewhat disappointing. In 41 games, he put up a .727 OPS for the Reds.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After making the Baseball America's Top 100 prospects before the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Frazier fell off the list before the 2011 season. It is hard to call a 26 year old without a set position a prospect, especially when his numbers were not setting the world on fire.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That makes what Todd Frazier is doing this season a pleasant surprise. He got some playing time with the health issues of Scott Rolen and because the other back up infielder was Miguel Cairo. With all due respect to Miguel Cairo...he IS Miguel Cairo. Frazier played a lot in Rolen's absences and now he is playing a lot with Joey Votto out with knee problems. While Frazier is no Joey Votto (who is?), he has performed well no matter whose place he is taking.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To date, Frazier has compiled a .913 OPS is good for an OPS+ of 137. Baseball-reference.com has him at 2.3 rWAR while Fangraphs.com has him at 2.8. The Fangraphs' evaluation ranks him second among rookie offensive players behind only that other kid from New Jersey. Frazier's 18 homers exceeds expectations and is higher than any year total he had in the minors. He has added twenty doubles and five triples. Frazier's .383 wOBA places him only behind Trout among rookie position players.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">You would think that some of those numbers have been because he plays his home games in that little bandbox of a Great American Park. But that is actually not the case. He has better numbers on the road than he does at home. He also had very similar splits against right-handed or left-handed pitchers. He walks more against right-handed pitchers but also strikes out more.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Frazier's line drive percentage has been fantastic but he needs better plate discipline and he needs to swing and miss a bit less often. But overall, his season has been dynamic and has filled two huge holes for the Reds this season with equal aplomb and has helped keep the Reds' offense rolling.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So who is Frazier's competition in the National League? For position players, both his teammate, Zach Cozart, and Harper are in the conversation. Neither is as good as Frazier with a bat but have better fielding scores. Among pitchers, Miley of Arizona has a good size lead on Frazier in the WAR department. Miley would have to be considered the front runner. Fiers of the Brewers, Lynn of the Cardinals and Harrell of the Astros are contenders.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But Todd Frazier has a chance and if he gets enough playing time and if Miley falters at all, both leagues could have an all-New Jersey podium for the Rookie of the Year Award. And that would be kind of cool for  this former Jersey kid.</div>

New Jersey kid gunning for Rookie of the Year

You thought this post was going to be about Trout. Right? We all know now where Vineland, New Jersey is because of that Angels' outfield...

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