Jeremy Hellickson and thoughts on defense

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I have been looking at all the angles on the <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeremy Hellickson</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> trade that brought two prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays from the Arizona Diamondbacks. And all that contemplation led to some thoughts about the recent history of both teams and what might have contributed from their falls from grace over the past few seasons. A lot of my thoughts ended up settling on defense.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The thought for years was that Jeremy Hellickson was not nearly as good as his results. In 2011 his ERA was 2.95 but his FIP was 4.44. Similarly, in 2012, Hellickson's ERA was 3.10 but his FIP was 4.60. He also had a high strand rate of 80% or better in both seasons.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It all seemed to catch up with Hellickson in 2013 and his ERA ballooned to overtake his FIP and that lack of success continued into his injury-shortened 2014. Those of us who felt that Hellickson was overrated clucked like proud chickens and said, "See!?" Perhaps our thinking is too simplistic.</span></div><div class="getty embed image" style="background-color: white; color: #a7a7a7; display: inline-block; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 11px; max-width: 427px; width: 100%;"><div style="height: 0; overflow: hidden; padding: 139.110070% 0 0 0; position: relative; width: 100%;"><iframe frameborder="0" height="594" scrolling="no" src="//embed.gettyimages.com/embed/183849172?et=iKxd40xjRL5iQm2T7bz-rA&sig=7J9AEJYWGtR-EloOiSlT9Z-JdTzXatlnUARXRuW8P8o=" style="display: inline-block; height: 100%; left: 0; position: absolute; top: 0; width: 100%;" width="427"></iframe></div><div style="margin: 0;"></div><div style="margin: 0 0 0 10px; padding: 0; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/183849172" style="border: none; color: #a7a7a7; display: inline-block; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">#183849172</a> / <a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/" style="border: none; color: #a7a7a7; display: inline-block; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">gettyimages.com</a></div></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The reason this resonates with me was watching the post season this past year. The Orioles and, more pointedly, the Royals seemed to make hay with flawed teams because their fielders seemed to catch everything in sight, especially in big spots. Every time you tuned in, some Royal was diving and making a play. More than anything else besides perhaps the bullpen, defense seemed to define the Royals.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If you look closely at the Orioles, the most drastic change from 2011, when they were terrible, to 2012, 2013 and 2014 was their pitchers' team BABIP or batting average for balls in play. In 2011, the Orioles' BABIP was .302. The next year, that figure went down to .285 and the team won 93 games. In 2014, that figure went down to .280 and they won 96 games.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While BABIP is not a magic bullet to point at for the sole reason a team succeeds, it does point to better defense and team positioning.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Royals lost 90 games in 2012. Their pitchers' BABIP was .311! The team has won 86 games or better both of the last two seasons and that BABIP is down to the .291 range for both seasons. This corresponds to a defense that ranked first among all teams in team defense in 2014. In 2012, the Royals' team defense finished 18th among 30 teams in team defense. That has to make a difference.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's look at the Rays during Hellickson's career. In 2011, the Rays finished second among the thirty teams in defense. The Rays were sixth in 2012. They fell to ninth in 2013 and were only fourteenth in 2014. Just to give you an idea of the drop, according to Fangraphs.com, the Rays' defense was worth 59.8 runs in 2011. It was worth 4.5 runs (total!) in 2014. That is a huge drop. Hellickson's BABIP is only .269 for his career, but has been over .300 the last two seasons.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Just for kicks and giggles, I looked at <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Price</a></strong>'s BABIP statistics over the years with the Rays and 2014 marked the third year in a row that his BABIP had gone up, so there does seem to be some sort of relationship.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So what is going to happen as Hellickson goes to the Diamondbacks? The Diamondbacks have had a similar and maybe more dramatic fall in team defense. In 2011 the Diamondbacks were the best defense in baseball. They were strong at shortstop, the outfield could fly and they were also strong behind the plate and at third base.  They won 94 games and their pitchers' BABIP was .290.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In 2012 <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drewst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drewst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Stephen Drew</a></strong> got hurt, someone thought it was a good idea to break up the terrific outfield defense and put <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jason Kubel</a></strong> out there and the defense fell to 13th and the team won thirteen less games. The BABIP for its pitchers went up over .300.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The 2013 Diamondbacks won the same number of games as the 2012 version, but this time the defense bounced back to second place. The outfield minus Kubel was again strong and the up the middle infield was strong as well.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">2014 was a fielding disaster for the Diamondbacks. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mark Trumbo</a></strong> proved that the team hadn't learned from the Kubel education, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Gerardo Parra</a></strong> was moved from left to right. It just didn't work and the team was awful. The team went from a pitching BABIP of .296 in 2013 to .316 in 2014. That is a full twenty point swing!</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The bad news is this is what Jeremy Hellickson is getting himself into. However, there is hope. The entire front office and the manager on the field have all been cleaned out and perhaps the focus will again be on defense and preventing runs. Heck, it couldn't get much worse, so it has to get better under <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larusto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larusto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Tony La Russa</a></strong>'s house.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Diamondbacks play in Arizona where the hot and dry air means that the baseball flies. Defense has to be a key to how well the team can compete in those conditions. It's not quite  as bad as playing in Coors Field, but it's a tough environment. Hellickson is more of a fly ball pitcher. Outfield defense will be very important to him.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If the Diamondbacks improve defensively, Jeremy Hellickson, if healthy, will thrive in his new environment. He will get to pitch quite a few times in LA, San Diego and San Francisco, which should help even out the Chase Field disadvantage. He will not have to deal with the DH regularly and lineups aren't as deep. IF the Diamondbacks can support him defensively, he can be a nice addition. That is one heck of an IF though.</span></div>

Jeremy Hellickson and thoughts on defense

I have been looking at all the angles on the  Jeremy Hellickson  trade that brought two prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays from the Arizona Dia...

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Chip Hale to manage Arizona Diamondbacks

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My first reaction upon hearing that <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larusto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larusto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Tony La Russa</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> and the Arizona Diamondbacks had hired </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/halech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/halech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chip Hale</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> to manage the team was, "Who?" And yeah, Walter William "Chip" Hale is not a household name. He played parts of seven seasons as a utility guy, Mostly for the Twins and finished up his minor league career with Memphis, the Cardinals' Triple-A affiliate. As such, La Russa would know him and the choice makes more sense.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The hiring of Hale does fly in the face of what has been going on in managerial hires of the past seasons. New managers have either been former players getting their first managerial starts without much experience (Ausmus, Mattingly and even <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoki01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoki01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kirk Gibson</a></strong>) or former catchers as that field position seems to be favored.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Chip Hale is not a guy without experience and he is not a former catcher. He played just about every infield and outfield position, but was never a catcher. And you can certainly tell he paid his dues managing in the minors.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Two years after his playing career ended in 1998, Hale was hired by the Diamondbacks to manage their rookie league team. He moved up to Double-A in 2002 and to the Triple-A Tuscon Sidewinders in 2003. He spent three years there and his 2006 team won 91 games.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Since then, he has coached in the big leagues, a year with the Diamondbacks and then the Mets. When he lost out on the managerial job there to <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collite99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collite99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Terry Collins</a></strong>, he moved on to the Oakland A's where he has been the bench coach since.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is sort of refreshing to see a baseball lifer kind of guy get the chance. There is no telling if this is a good move for the Diamondbacks or not. We can see with the selection that Tony La Russa is going against the current grain here and that makes the hire interesting by itself. After a miserable 2014, any change in Phoenix has to be a good one. Since hearty didn't work, it might as well be Hale.</span></div>

Chip Hale to manage Arizona Diamondbacks

My first reaction upon hearing that  Tony La Russa  and the Arizona Diamondbacks had hired  Chip Hale  to manage the team was, "Who?...

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Questionable judgement call costs the Pirates

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Pittsburgh Pirates lost a game in extra innings yesterday when a double play was broken up when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ahmedni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ahmedni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Ahmed</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> threw up his arm and deflected a throw that might have been an inning ending double play. In the judgement of the umpires, the runner did not intentionally interfere with the play. I find that ruling a bit spurious.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Here is the </span><a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/28898650/v35071973/pitari-dbacks-win-as-ball-deflects-off-baserunner" target="_blank">play</a>:</span></div><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=35071973&topic_id=28898650&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> <br /><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ahmed certainly threw his arm up and it wasn't just a natural part of his slide. That's my humble opinion anyway. And if you look at the Interference Rules as listed on Page 17 of the official <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2014/official_baseball_rules.pdf" target="_blank">MLB rule book</a><span style="font-size: small;">, intentionally interfering with the act of fielding the ball is interference.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Many old timers like me can remember a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v28130223/ws-gm4-run-scores-after-throw-deflects-off-jackson/?query=reggie+jackson" target="_blank">similar play</a> in the World Series past when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Reggie Jackson</a></strong> did the same thing and got away with it too. It was wrong then and it is wrong now.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I would be okay if Nick Ahmed had slid in a normal motion and got hit with the ball. No harm, no foul there. But Ahmed's arm went up in a not natural motion and was clearly trying to block the baseball.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I think the umpires got it wrong here and the play was not reviewable (which is not really a word but has become one in baseball parlance).</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One thing I got a kick out of was MLB.com's spin on the play. The headline and writing go a long way out of the way to back up the umpire's call and not give any inkling of a doubt that perhaps there is a problem here.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The bottom line is that the Pirates are in the middle of a battle for the division and the wild card and a judgement call cost them a game.</span></div>

Questionable judgement call costs the Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost a game in extra innings yesterday when a double play was broken up when  Nick Ahmed  threw up his arm and deflec...

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Aaron Hill in the deep valley

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Not a whole lot of good things have happened for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. Currently, the team is in last place in the National League West behind the equally disappointing Rockies by a half a game. While there have been many reasons for the stumbling of the Diamondbacks this season, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Aaron Hill</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> seems to have become one of the real symbols of a team's fall from respectability. This Hill is in a deep valley.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Aaron Hill has had a weird career, hasn't he? His offense over the years, if plotted on a graph would be up and down in nearly every season he has played. He is one guy where you cannot seem to pin a baseline. His career averages have nothing in common with what he achieves from year to year.</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #a7a7a7; display: inline-block; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 11px; max-width: 594px; min-width: 300px; width: 100%;"><div style="height: 0; overflow: hidden; padding: 70.538721% 0 49px 0; position: relative; width: 100%;"><iframe frameborder="0" height="468" scrolling="no" src="//embed.gettyimages.com/embed/450889368?et=agmiyBz_TqxEpiN2EDyhFw&sig=xV7XLrEtS8YvmmDgj1YSBFJlV6qjirJK4LMJAbpvQe0=" style="display: inline-block; height: 100%; left: 0; position: absolute; top: 0; width: 100%;" width="594"></iframe></div><div style="margin: 0;"></div><div style="margin: 4px 0 0 10px; padding: 0; text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/450889368" style="border: none; color: #a7a7a7; display: inline-block; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">#450889368</a> / <a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/" style="border: none; color: #a7a7a7; display: inline-block; font-weight: normal !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">gettyimages.com</a></div></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">He went from a star with the Blue Jays with an .829 OPS and a .212 ISO in 2009 to a .665 OPS the following season. And just two years ago with the Diamondbacks, Hill put together an .882 OPS with a .220 ISO. His 2012 season is just a dream now that Hill's OPS in 2014 is .639 with an ISO of .122.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While Hill's results went up and down through the years, some of his peripherals remained fairly constant including his walk and strikeout rates and batted ball rates (except for 2010 when he couldn't hit a line drive to save himself). But this year, even some of those constants are off. The bottom line is that at the age of 32, Aaron Hill has really bottomed out and is having a negative season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's look at some of those underlying peripherals to see where Hill has fallen. The first striking example is Aaron Hill's walk rate. Hill has never been a patient hitter. His walk rates have hovered between a 6-8% range with his career average being 6.7%. That is a weakness to his game that has been a constant.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">However, this year, this weakness has turned to a lifeblood sucking low. His current walk rate is only 4.7%. Last season, when Hill was injured for much of the season, he compiled 29 walks in 327 plate appearances. This year so far, Hill has walked only 15 times in 344 plate appearances.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Because of his lack of walks, his disappointing .241 batting average is compounded into a .275 on-based percentage this season after finishing last year at .356. The Diamondbacks are 11th of 15 NLteams in team on-base percentage. Hill again is a major symbol of that team failure.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While Hill's walk rate is historically low for him, his strikeout rate is historically high. Hill's strikeout rate has ranged between 10.1% his first season to a high of 15.5% his second season. His average is 13.4%. This season, Hill's strikeout rate is 18.3%, easily the highest of his career.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If you were to look at his success rate against certain pitches over the years, you can see that Hill had success against the fastball in his career and he has always hit the curve ball well.  His success against all other pitches varies from year to year. This season, Aaron Hill does not have a positive value against any pitch type. That's not a good thing at all.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The troubling part of Hill's season (other than all the other reasons mentioned) is that each month has gotten progressively worse. His monthly OPS totals starting in April were: .722, .700, .549 and .472 so far this month. His BABIP had remained fairly static in the mid-.270 range but has fallen to .206 his month, so some bad luck could be involved in July.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Is Aaron Hill the latest of a list of second basemen who seem to hit the 32 age and lose it? Or can he bounce back again to be a productive player? Hill's defense has also deteriorated and his WAR is at -0.7 at Fangraphs and -0.9 for baseball-reference.com.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Those valuations are not good news to an Arizona team that has $24 million combined invested in Hill's 2015 and 2015 seasons. His current results and relatively high salary would make it difficult for the Diamondbacks to trade him for any kind of value, if at all.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Diamondbacks have had a really tough season and the bloom is off the rose for a team that made the post season just two seasons ago. And one of the big symbols of the woes this team has faced in 2014 is Aaron Hill. It will remain to be seen if the player or the team can bounce back from such a season.</span></div>

Aaron Hill in the deep valley

Not a whole lot of good things have happened for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. Currently, the team is in last place in the National ...

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Wade Miley - Everyone's favorite regression candidate

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wade Miley</a></strong> was such a surprise last year for the Arizona Diamondbacks that the surprise factor might have cost him the Rookie of the Year Award nod in a very close race with Harper. Nobody expected that Wade Miley would be the tenth most valuable pitcher in baseball in 2012. And his 1.79 walks per nine innings and 3.13 FIP were so fabulous that it had everyone scratching their heads. Thus, it is no surprise that Miley is everyone's favorite regression candidate heading into the 2013 season--so much so that it almost makes you root that he proves everyone wrong.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The problem stems in part because Wade Miley was never a prospect despite being a first round pick in 2008. He never made anyone's list of top tier young guys to watch. Plus, he never had the kind of success in the minors that he had in the majors. He never came close to the depth of his walk rate in the minors. For his minor league career, he averaged 3.1 walks per nine innings. How can that turn into 1.79? His minor league ERA was 3.79. So how did he manage 3.33 in the majors? And it was in Arizona no less, where the thin air flies baseballs. Add to all this lack of history, his mundane strikeout rate and skeptics abound.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The walk rate was a result of two things. First, he was very successful at throwing first pitch strikes, which he did at a 60% rate. Combine that with enticing hitters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, which he did at a 33.8% rate, the 12th highest rate in baseball.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His heat maps show that he pounded the strike zone against right-handed batters low and inside with his fastball and his change up and then threw is curve on the outer half and down in the zone or out of it. It was a potent mix of getting ahead in the count and then putting batters away on his counts. Forget about left-handed batters. They couldn't hit him at all. Left-handed batters had a triple slash line against him of: .200/.238/306.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But, yeah. It makes sense to look at his walk rate and state that he cannot repeat it. But the projections also predict that he cannot sustain his home run rate. His home runs per nine innings of 0.67 seem unsustainable along with his tiny 6.9% homer to fly ball rate. But that particular skill is one he did display all during his minor league career. His minor league homer per nine inning rate was 0.5.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And why can't he maintain that rate? He keeps the ball down almost exclusively. His ground ball to fly ball rate is 1.28. That is not an extreme ground ball pitcher, but it is certainly far from being a fly ball pitcher. So there is really no reason to expect his homer rate to regress. Sure, his walk rate is in uncharted territory, but not his homer rate.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">At least most of the projections have him being somewhat successful. All the ones listed on his Fangraphs.com player page think he'll win more games than he loses, will finish somewhere in the 3.60 to 3.90 ERA range with a more normalized walk rate and a slightly higher home run rate. But Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA rating really is a lot more pessimistic.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That system has him finishing with a 10-13 record with a 4.53 ERA and only a 0.9 WARP. That is a pretty heady fall from his 2012 stats.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Again, there is nothing about any of those projections that are arguable except maybe the jump in homer rate. But the possibility is also there that Miley really found something in 2012 and that with more experience, his strikeout rate will improve above middling and he can keep his walk rate down. The key is his first pitch strike rate and getting ahead of the count. If he can continue that trend for another season, the projections will look a lot different next season. </div>

Wade Miley - Everyone's favorite regression candidate

Wade Miley was such a surprise last year for the Arizona Diamondbacks that the surprise factor might have cost him the Rookie of the Year ...

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Defense a big difference between 2011 and 2012 Diamondbacks

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Arizona Diamondbacks have had two seasons that pretty much defy their actual run differential. That defiance was good in 2011 and not so good in 2012. The similarities between the offense was minimal. The Diamondbacks scored 734 runs in 2012 and 731 in 2011. The pitching was not that far off either. The pitching allowed 688 runs in 2012 compared to 662 in 2011. And yet in 2011, the Diamondbacks should have won 88 games and won 94 and should have won 86 games in 2012 and won only 81. Was the team lucky in 2011 and unlucky in 2012? Perhaps. But from what I can see, the difference was the defense.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Circumstantial evidence</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Before we look closely at the difference in the two years from a defensive standpoint, let's look at some circumstantial evidence. The real striking Exhibit A is how the team fared in one-run games. The two seasons are a mirror image. In 2011, the team went 28-16 in one run games and 9-4 in extra inning games. In 2012, the team went 15-27 in one-run games and 3-4 in extra inning games. Again, you can chalk that up to luck and the bounce of the ball. But this, to me, is circumstantial evidence of a deeper problem.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Harder evidence</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Diamondbacks as a whole team had a +30 score overall for total zone runs saved over average in 2011 (baseball-reference.com). That figure fell to -6 in 2012. The glaring difference was the outfield. Many Diamondback fans dislike <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=youngch03,youngch04&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Chris Young</a></strong> and cheered when he left the team this off season. But he was spectacular in 2011 and by missing much of 2012, the center field defense suffered. But the biggest difference was in left field. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Gerardo Parra</a></strong> played 128 games in left field in 2011 and left field in total had a fielding score of +11 over the course of that season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Enter <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason Kubel</a></strong> in 2012 and the outfield defense crumbled. Kubel scored a -12 all by himself. Parra played about eight percent of the innings in left and at least pulled the total up to a -6. But that is a twelve run swing from one year to the next.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The injury to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drewst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Stephen Drew</a></strong> hurt too. Drew has been an underrated defensive player in a league dominated by Tulowitzki and Rollins. But the shortstop play in 2011 was rated at zero. In other words, based on an average, the D-back shortstops did not cost their pitchers any runs nor saved them any against the league average. In 2012, that figure fell to -6.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Can we see a difference in outfield play in the record? Again, this isn't a one to one cause and effect, but when Arizona pitchers allowed a fly ball in 2012, the opposing batters batted .238 with an OPS of .882. On line drives, the OPS against was 1.730. In 2011, opposing batters batted .209 with an OPS of .770 on fly balls and had an OPS of 1.676 on line drives. Clearly, outfield defense had to have some effect on those numbers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Keep in mind that the team's workhorse, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kenneia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ian Kennedy</a></strong>, is a fly ball pitcher. Was the difference in his pitching from 2011 to 2012 the defense? I think a case can be made. The team's other young pitcher, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Daniel Hudson</a></strong>, was also a fly ball pitcher before he went down with his elbow. And <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/collmjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Collmenter</a></strong>? He is one of the most dramatic fly ball pitchers in baseball and his outfield defense could not have helped him during his disappointing 2012 season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Losing Young to injury last season probably cost the Diamondbacks two to three wins. Losing Parra's full time defense and adequate offense to Jason Kubel's bad defense cost the Diamondbacks another two wins. That kind of stuff goes a long way in telling a story about how a team can beat its run differential so well in 2011 and then lose to its differential the following season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As of right now, Kubel is still the projected left fielder for 2013. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Cody Ross</a></strong> takes over in center and he isn't bad out there and has had some decent seasons. But even Ross's best season does not add up to Young's two best seasons. It seems the Diamondbacks had a winning formula in 2011 and should have stuck with it. </div>

Defense a big difference between 2011 and 2012 Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have had two seasons that pretty much defy their actual run differential. That defiance was good in 2011 and not so...

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Six things you might not know about Ian Kennedy

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kenneia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ian Kennedy</a></strong> had some real pretty numbers in 2011 and some less pretty numbers in 2012. Even so, Kennedy's 2012 season ended on a high note and he finished at 15-12 to give him a two year win-loss record of 36-16, which again looks very pretty. Those 36 wins are the fourth most in baseball over those two combined season. But, of course, we all know that the win-loss statistic is not very favored these days in the analytic community. And for the most part, that is the correct call. As such, Ian Kennedy is not really considered to be an elite pitcher and nobody's list of the ten or twenty best pitchers in baseball would include him.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But there are some things you may not know about Ian Kennedy and you should. Some of them defend his lack of elite status and some fly in the face of it. Here, then is a list of things you probably did not know about Ian Kennedy's pitching.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">1. Most of the batted balls off of Ian Kennedy are fly balls. Kennedy's ground ball percentage over the last three seasons has been 37.7 percent. Only thirteen other starters over that three-year time period have had a lower ground ball percentage. And this is despite increasing the number of two-seam fastballs he throws.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The belief here is that this statistic is the difference between his 2011 and 2012 seasons. In 2011, the Arizona Diamondbacks had the fourth best fielding runs saved from their left fielders and the best fielding runs saved in center field. Garardo Parra was terrific in left and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=youngch03,youngch04&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Chris Young</a></strong> was terrific in center. In 2011, Ian Kennedy's BABIP on fly balls was .110 and .730 on line drives. In 2012, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kubelja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason Kubel</a></strong> played left field most of the season and Chris Young missed more than 30% of the season. In 2012, Kennedy's BABIP on fly balls was .162 and .784 on line drives. The Diamondbacks went from seventh in overall defensive efficiency in 2011 to 23th in 2012.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">2. Ian Kennedy has been really durable. Kennedy has made 98 starts over the last three seasons, tied for seventh in all of baseball over that span. He has been a rock in the Diamondback's rotation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">3. Ian Kennedy is a strike throwing machine. Only five pitchers have thrown more strikes than Ian Kennedy in the last two seasons combined. In that same time period, he is tied for eighth in first pitch strike percentage. He was seventh over those two seasons for most pitches seen in the strike zone. And most people do not consider Kennedy a strikeout pitcher, but his 8.05 strikeouts per nine innings over the last two seasons is more than respectable. His strikeout to walk ratio has been 17th best among starters when you combine the last two seasons. And it is better than David Price and Matt Cain over that time period.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">4. Despite his control, he is fifth in baseball in hitting batters over the past two seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">5. His five balks over the last two seasons are the second most in baseball. That's weird.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">6. Ian Kennedy does not have a dominant pitch. That's right, everything he throws is rather ordinary. None of his pitches: fastball, curve, change up and slider have finished in the top thirty for pitch value over the past two seasons. There is not one pitch you can point to and say, "that is why Ian Kennedy is successful."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There you have it, six things you might not have known about Ian Kennedy. This observer has a real soft spot for him, so the perspective here is that he is a better pitcher than people think. But the numbers give mixed reviews. The best things he does are throw strikes and take the ball every fifth day. And he certainly wins a lot. The fact that he does not have a dominant pitch and has had a higher FIP than ERA the last two seasons tend to show that perhaps he isn't as good as this man-crush warrants. But what the heck, right? The heart goes where it will. </div>

Six things you might not know about Ian Kennedy

Ian Kennedy had some real pretty numbers in 2011 and some less pretty numbers in 2012. Even so, Kennedy's 2012 season ended on a high ...

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Why Wade Miley should be Rookie of the Year

<div style="text-align: justify;">Picking a favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award is always complicated when the two best candidates are a pitcher and a position player. The two candidates that rise above all other National League rookies are <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Wade Miley</a></strong> of the Diamondbacks and that Harper kid from the Nationals that you may have heard about. Harper, of course, has gotten all the attention and his every move is documented. And rightly so. He just turned nineteen and has all the tools and desire to be a star in the league for years to come. Plus, his team has made the playoffs after a 31 year absence. All of those things make Harper attractive and he has to be the favorite with sports writers due to familiarity and...well...hubris. But there is a stronger candidate from this observation post who has not been the toast of the town and his team is not in the playoffs--Wade Miley.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Again, it's a bit difficult to pick between apples and oranges. WAR tries to bridge that argument. But though it is a good starting point, WAR is not the total answer. Here is how the sites rate the two players in WAR:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Baseball-reference.com:  Miley - 3.5, Harper - 4.5</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Fangraphs.com: Miley - 4.5 , Harper - 4.6</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Baseball Prospectus: Miley - 2.6 ,Harper - 3.9</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you go simply by WAR, it would appear to be Harper as he averages over the three sites at 4.33 compared to Miley's 3.2 average. But again. WAR is just a starting point.  All the sites build a position player's fielding into their equation and nobody can agree on the best system for measuring fielding and nobody is real happy with what we currently have. A full 1.2 wins for fielding are part of Fangraphs' valuation, for example.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">WPA is another item we can look at. Win Probability Added measures how much a player's efforts added to or took away from a team's effort to win ballgames during the course of the season. Harper has the edge here again as his WPA on B-R is 1.6 and at Fangraphs is 2.12. Miley's WPA are 1.22 on B-R and 1.20 on Fangraphs.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yeah, it looks like a case is being built for Harper. But there is more. Let's compare Harper's OPS+ to Miley's ERA+. Harper's OPS+ is 115 compared to Miley's 128. In other words, compared to league average (use 100 as a round number), Harper is 15 points above all league average batters whereas Miley is 28 points above league average pitchers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is also their relative rank to the leaderboard. Harper (according to Fangraphs) is the 29th best position player in baseball this season. Miley is the 13th best pitcher. Miley is also eighth among all starters in home runs per nine innings allowed despite pitching half his games in Arizona where the ball flies. Miley is also eighth in walks allowed per nine innings, which for a rookie, is amazing. On the other hand, Harper is not among the top ten in any of the major offensive categories.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Miley pitches in one of the worst parks for pitchers in baseball. Even so, his OPS against is better at home than it is on the road. He led the Diamondbacks' starters in ERA, WHIP, BB/9 and SO/BB ratio. Harper led his team in runs scored. That's it.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Don't get the post wrong. Harper is an exciting young player who is going to provide his team value for years to come. But to choose one rookie that stood out in terms of team performance, home ballparks, and overall comparison with the league's players, Wade Miley has had a more impressive rookie season. </div>

Why Wade Miley should be Rookie of the Year

Picking a favorite for the Rookie of the Year Award is always complicated when the two best candidates are a pitcher and a position player. ...

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Aaron Hill has had a great season

<div style="text-align: justify;">What a shame it is when a player has a fantastic season for a team that has never been in serious contention in a season. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillaa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Aaron Hill</a></strong> has had such a season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He did not make the All Star Team. His team is never considered for national television because they simply have not been a factor this season after winning their division last season. If you hear about the Diamondbacks at all, it is about whether or not the team will trade away its young superstar right fielder. And that is too bad because Aaron Hill has easily had the best season of his career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hill has played alongside five different shortstops. But he has manned his position steadily all season. His fielding metrics are good. His offense has been terrific. As of right now, with a week left in the season, Aaron Hill has been the second best second baseman in all of baseball. Only Cano is rated higher. Aaron Hill has had a better season than Pedroia. He has been way better than Espinosa, Phillips, Kendrick, Murphy, Weeks, Kinsler and any other second baseman you want to talk about.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But you might say that Hill plays in Arizona, a nice place to hit with its dry, hot air that helps a ball carry. Yes, he has a .910 OPS in Arizona. But he also has an .844 OPS on the road and that is not shabby by any means. As a right-handed batter, he has an .888 OPS against right-handed pitching and an .860 OPS against left-handed pitching. Throw anything you want at him and he's been good.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And this is a former Number One draft pick the Blue Jays ran out of town. And who is to blame them, really? Yeah, he had a fantastic 2009 season. That season, he had 195 hits with 36 homers, 37 doubles, 103 runs scored and 108 runs batted in. It looked like he had come into his own as a star player in baseball. Heck, he came in 12th in MVP voting. And then 2010 happened.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Aaron Hill lost the ability to hit in 2010. His final triple slash line that season was .205/.271/.394. Ugh! It was awful. He still hit 26 homers, but everything else was a disaster. He did not bounce back for the Blue Jays in 2011 either. After 108 games with that team in 2011, his OPS was actually ten points lower than his paltry .665 for 2009. And his power had gone away as he hit only eight homers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Fortunately for Hill, the Diamondbacks had that Cinderella season a year ago and weren't overly happy with Johnson at second. They wanted a little more zip at the position and traded Johnson to the Blue Jays in a trade deadline deal for Hill and McDonald. Hill responded with a good run down the stretch for the Diamondbacks as his .878 OPS in those 33 games did much to help the Diamondbacks. He then put an .879 OPS together in the series loss to the Brewers in the playoffs.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So basically, Aaron Hill has played a season and a third for the Diamondbacks and his OPS has remained as steady as anything. .878 down the stretch last season, .879 in the playoffs and now .876 this season. That gives every indication of not being a fluke.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This season, Hill has the most walks of his career and his highest walk percentage. He has hit 40 doubles to go with six triples and 24 homers. His OPS+ is the highest of his career. His wOBA is the highest of his career. Even his ISO is higher this year than his big season of 2009. His swinging strike percentage is the lowest of his career. Everything has come together for Aaron Hill this season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hill is only 30 years old. What if 2009 and this season are the real Hill and 2010 and 2011 were just a funk or a lack of adjustments to what pitchers were doing, or an undetected flaw in his mechanics or an undisclosed injury? Hill could not repeat what he did in 2009. He will need to show that he can repeat his 2012. But for this season at least, he has been a terrific player, the second best second baseman in baseball, all without a lot of fanfare or team success. A tip of the coke glass to you, Mr. Hill. </div>

Aaron Hill has had a great season

What a shame it is when a player has a fantastic season for a team that has never been in serious contention in a season. Aaron Hill has h...

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