MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: October 1, 2014

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Wow! What a game! If that game last night between the Kansas City Royals and Oakland A's sets the tone for the entire post season, then we are off to one heck of a fun <span style="font-size: small;">ride in October. I can't imagine much more of an exciting game than that one was.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I was wrong with my first post season pick of the year. But what the heck do I care!? There were comebacks and stolen bases and big flies and guys thrown out at home and...and...I'm out of breath. A hearty congratulations to Royals' fans as they have to be pretty doggone excited right now, and they should be.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tonight's wild card game features last year's Cinderella team against the every-other-year World Champion San Francisco Giants. This is that every other year. Will that streak continue or will the Pirates prevail at home?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The pick:</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Pirates</strong> over the Giants</span>: Last night taught me how much a home crowd means in these post season games. The Royals fans were amazing yesterday and certainly spurred on the team. The Pirates fans are among the most boisterous on the planet and that will help the home team Pirates. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong> is one of the best pitchers in the National League, but the Pirates have beaten him his last two times facing them. I am somewhat uncomfortable picking <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Edinson Volquez</a></strong> as I can't quite forget that before this season, he was the worst starting pitcher in baseball. There is just something about this Pirates team that is too intangible to pick against.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Post season: 0-1, Season: 1365-1090</span></div>

MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: October 1, 2014

Wow! What a game! If that game last night between the Kansas City Royals and Oakland A's sets the tone for the entire post season, then ...

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Questionable judgement call costs the Pirates

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Pittsburgh Pirates lost a game in extra innings yesterday when a double play was broken up when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ahmedni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ahmedni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Ahmed</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> threw up his arm and deflected a throw that might have been an inning ending double play. In the judgement of the umpires, the runner did not intentionally interfere with the play. I find that ruling a bit spurious.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;">Here is the </span><a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/28898650/v35071973/pitari-dbacks-win-as-ball-deflects-off-baserunner" target="_blank">play</a>:</span></div><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=35071973&topic_id=28898650&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> <br /><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Ahmed certainly threw his arm up and it wasn't just a natural part of his slide. That's my humble opinion anyway. And if you look at the Interference Rules as listed on Page 17 of the official <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2014/official_baseball_rules.pdf" target="_blank">MLB rule book</a><span style="font-size: small;">, intentionally interfering with the act of fielding the ball is interference.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Many old timers like me can remember a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v28130223/ws-gm4-run-scores-after-throw-deflects-off-jackson/?query=reggie+jackson" target="_blank">similar play</a> in the World Series past when <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Reggie Jackson</a></strong> did the same thing and got away with it too. It was wrong then and it is wrong now.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I would be okay if Nick Ahmed had slid in a normal motion and got hit with the ball. No harm, no foul there. But Ahmed's arm went up in a not natural motion and was clearly trying to block the baseball.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I think the umpires got it wrong here and the play was not reviewable (which is not really a word but has become one in baseball parlance).</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One thing I got a kick out of was MLB.com's spin on the play. The headline and writing go a long way out of the way to back up the umpire's call and not give any inkling of a doubt that perhaps there is a problem here.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The bottom line is that the Pirates are in the middle of a battle for the division and the wild card and a judgement call cost them a game.</span></div>

Questionable judgement call costs the Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates lost a game in extra innings yesterday when a double play was broken up when  Nick Ahmed  threw up his arm and deflec...

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Ralph Kiner and the 1955 pennant race

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinerra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinerra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ralph Kiner</a></strong><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;">'s play in 1955 almost made a difference in the pennant race between the Indians and the Yankees. Unfortunately, his back broke down in the home stretch and it was the Yankees who went to the World Series. Check out </span><a data-mce-href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/02/08/ralph-kiner-and-the-1955-penant-race/" href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/02/08/ralph-kiner-and-the-1955-penant-race/" style="background-color: white; color: #743399; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;" target="_blank">my post</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;"> on </span><em style="background-color: white; border: none; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;">It's About the Money, Stupid</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 21.81818199157715px;">.</span></div>

Ralph Kiner and the 1955 pennant race

Ralph Kiner 's play in 1955 almost made a difference in the pennant race between the Indians and the Yankees. Unfortunately, his back br...

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Edinson Volquez is not the next Liriano

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a bit like the Statue of Liberty when it comes to broken pitchers: "Give me your tired, your poor..." They took a seemingly broken <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">A.J. Burnett</a></strong> and received two productive years from him. They took a seemingly broken <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Francisco Liriano</a></strong> and he had a fantastic year for them last year and even won a playoff game. Now, the expectation is that their next tired and poor pitcher to reclaim is <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Edinson Volquez</a></strong>. It's not going to happen.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I have to admit that I am biased against the guy. So let's put that up there right at the start. He has been the worst starting pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons. He gave up the most earned runs allowed in his league in 2013 and the most walks in 2012. But people still look at him as a "stuff" guy that just needs to figure it out.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The past is littered with such guys. Stuff doesn't always get you a good pitcher. Let's put some things in perspective here. Edinson Volquez has made 154 starts in his career and pitched a total of 850 innings. For all that pitching, he has the grand sum of 1.7 rWAR to his credit. To be fair, Fangraphs.com gives his career 5.9 fWAR.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Volquez has one good season to his credit--2008, his first year with the Reds. That season featured his best BABIP and his best HR/9 rate. He also featured a 75.5% strand rate. All of which lead him to a FIP that season of 3.60. It was a good season. But the rest has been a whole lot of nothing.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Are there legitimate comparisons with Liriano who had his own struggles with the Twins before coming to Pittsburgh? Well, yes, if you want to state that both had been disappointing. But there was always some concern (whether fair or not) that the Twins never believed in him because he did not fit their pitch-to-contact, low walk mantra.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I think the comparison ends pretty much there. After completing a successful 2013, Liriano now has three very good seasons to his credit in his eight years of pitching. Volquez still has the one. Liriano has a 2.41 strikeout to walk ratio for his career. Volquez is at 1.77.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Liriano has a 1.333 WHIP for his career. Volquez has a career WHIP of 1.505. Liriano has a devastating pitch, his slider, which has racked up 99+ runs in value over his career and a change-up that has given him 16.4 runs of value above average. Volquez does not have such a killer pitch and his highest pitch value for any of his pitches is his change-up which has a career run value of 5.9. Every other Volquez pitch type has a negative value.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Liriano has struck out a batter more per nine for his career more than Volquez while walking a batter less. I think the situation with Liriano and the Pirates last year was that the Pirates had something to work with, just like what they did with Burnett. I don't see the same canvas with Edinson Volquez.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Maybe I have been so down on Volquez for so long that I cannot see the silver lining the Pirates are seeing. I certainly can be proven wrong in thinking that there is no chance the Pirates turn him around. Some of his peripherals with his short stint with the Dodgers were better. So maybe that is what the Pirates see.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The projections are fairly kind to him. Two that I checked in with have him finishing with a 4.01 FIP. Another pegs it at 4.36 (his career average). Perhaps that would be good enough for what the Pirates are looking for. As a fourth or fifth guy in the rotation, that would be somewhat acceptable.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;">But those projections still like his 8.4 K/9 rate and look at his low LOB rate and high BABIP and say that he was unlucky. Perhaps. But perhaps he simply is not a very good pitcher who is what he is. I could be wrong. But don't count me as an optimist here that the Pirates will raise another pitcher from the dead.</span></div>

Edinson Volquez is not the next Liriano

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a bit like the Statue of Liberty when it comes to broken pitchers: "Give me your tired, your poor......

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Pirates the latest on the bandwagon phenomenon

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Pittsburgh Pirates clinched at least a shot to get deep into the post season and the Wild Card Play-in Game. They are two behind the Cardinals for the division lead and with six games on the schedule, still have a slight chance to skip the play-in altogether. This is a great story of course after the Pirates have gone since 1992 since last making it to the post season. Such a story is great for baseball. But it has also become the latest example of the bandwagon phenomenon.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The bandwagon phenomenon happens when a perennially bad team suddenly becomes good and reaches the playoffs after a long drought. The "loyal" Pirate fans who have supported the team through thick and thin scoff and feel superior to what they consider "bandwagon" fans who have hopped on that bandwagon simply because the Pirates are suddenly good.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Pittsburgh is not the first to do this sort of thing. So these "loyals" can be forgiven for exhibiting the kind of human behavior that has happened time and time again. But what is behind it all? Why do human beings do this? First, I need to show you a few Twitter examples of what I am talking about:</div><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Also I'm sorry, all you <a href="https://twitter.com/Pirates">@Pirates</a> bandwagon fans <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23STFD&src=hash">#STFD</a> no you can't even ✋<br />— Ashley (@amikulan) <a href="https://twitter.com/amikulan/statuses/382348421442830337">September 24, 2013</a></blockquote><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Those loyal <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23pirates&src=hash">#pirates</a> fans who never jumped off bandwagon had to enjoy this moment<br />— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) <a href="https://twitter.com/KDPomp/statuses/382363742291628032">September 24, 2013</a></blockquote><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">And so the holier than thou Pirates tweets begin. Explicitly say you've always loved them, or run the risk of being called a bandwagon fan.<br />— Jennifer Zysk (@JenniferZysk) <a href="https://twitter.com/JenniferZysk/statuses/382344653112352768">September 24, 2013</a></blockquote><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <br /><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">CONCLUSION -- Bandwagon <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Pirates&src=hash">#Pirates</a> fans: fine. Bandwagon fans that overreact to every at-bat: go back to chasing autographs in Latrobe.<br />— James Santelli (@JamesSantelli) <a href="https://twitter.com/JamesSantelli/statuses/231939388324593665">August 5, 2012</a></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;">Again, why does this happen? My feeling is that human beings are always looking to set up pecking orders. The caste system, except for a few "unenlightened" countries, is always there. It is why prejudice happens. It is why a society becomes either male or female dominated. We have this ingrained ability to set ourselves higher up on the food chain at the slightest provocation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you first read J.R.R. Tolkien in the sixties (like I did), then you own Tolkien and are infinitely superior to those who have just discovered the writer. I saw the Beatles on the Ed Sullivan Show when it happened, so therefore, I am superior to any Beatle fans that have come since. The only "caste" that trumps me are those that were actually IN the Ed Sullivan Theater.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I have lived in northern Maine since 1990. That is twenty-three years. But I will never be a "native." In what is truly fascinating, this area of the country did not have minority populations so the Acadian French became the lower caste citizens.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And thus, the bandwagon phenomenon occurs. I have been a fan through the lean times so I am a better fan than someone who just jumped on board. What do you want, a badge of honor?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Frankly, we all need to get a grip. As a team like the Pirates explodes out of its proverbial decades-long funk, what is better at the games, twelve-thousand loyals going crazy with their loyalty badges on or forty-thousand raucous fans creating a roar that can be heard all over Pennsylvania? Yeah, the latter seems more exciting to me too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And how long did you have to watch the Pirates and wear their caps before you qualify? Five years? Ten years? Twenty? "I became a fan of the Pirates in 1993, after Bonds left. I am the best Pirates fan."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Come on, now. The more the merrier. The boost in attendance and sales of team wear from these new fans will help the team. Payroll for players will be a bit easier. Keeping young players will be easier. Welcoming back <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">A.J. Burnett</a></strong> will not have to break the bank. There are more options for the team next year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">When network television shows a Pirates game for the first time in twenty years, does it not represent your team better if that stadium is full rather than filled with just those core fans? Sure it is.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you look at it this way and embrace these new fans, there are more people to share in your joy. The entire city and community can pull together in the joy of the moment. Embrace it people!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you have suffered for years as a fan of the Pirates, God bless you. You have been through a lot. Just consider the full stadium and the riotous cheering and take it all in and smile. You waited a long time for this. Just smile and enjoy it along with your new brothers and sisters.</div><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>

Pirates the latest on the bandwagon phenomenon

The Pittsburgh Pirates clinched at least a shot to get deep into the post season and the Wild Card Play-in Game. They are two behind the Car...

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Andrew McCutchen is the most valuable

<div style="text-align: justify;">I cannot imagine where the Pirates would be without <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong>. That to me makes him the most valuable player in the National League this season. Yes, the Pirates have forged this exceptional season due to pitching and defense. But they have been (until some recent acquisitions) a weak hitting team. Except for Andrew McCutchen.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">How weak a hitting team? Consider that the Pirates as a team have an offense that has been valued by Fangraphs.com at -14.8 batting runs. Andrew McCutchen's offense has been valued by that same site at 35.5 batting runs. That is second in the National League only to Votto of the Reds who is valued at 36.8 runs.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martest01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Starling Marte</a></strong>, McCutchen's teammate, has had a very good season with 4.2 fWAR. That is a surprise. But much of that is on defense, and while I am not discounting that, his batting runs are also the second highest on the team at 12.7. That is 22.8 batting runs behind McCutchen. They are the only two on the team in double figures.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I do not think this makes as much difference as some people say it does, but until recently, McCutchen had little protection in the batting order too. McCutchen has only driven in 76 runs, but that is not hard to fathom considering the first and second places in the Pirates batting order have a combined .334 on-base percentage. That is not that bad, but it is not that great either. And if one of those batters did get on, McCutchen was worked around. He has eleven intentional walks.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The major MVP candidates in the NL this season will be McCutchen, Gomez of the Brewers, Carpenter of the Cardinals, Votto of the Reds, Goldschmidt of the Diamondbacks and Kershaw of the Dodgers. That is who I see as McCutchen's competition. All have had valid seasons and arguments. But here is how I break it down.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Votto and Goldschmidt are the only two NL players with a higher wOBA than McCutchen, but it is just barely. All three have had positive defensive seasons. But McCutchen is only four or five points below those two in wOBA and he plays a much more important defensive position. So with all playing extremely well, the nod to me goes to McCutchen.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I love the season that Carpenter is having with the Cardinals. His offense from the top of that lineup drives that team. But his defense is only meh compared to McCutchen's and Carpenter has had a much better supporting cast.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I discount Gomez of the Brewers, perhaps unfairly. But much of his value is from his defense, which charts out of this world. If defensive stats were stronger and more reliable, I might buy into that more. And yeah, playing for a team that has no shot at being any good detracts things for me. It might be a bit of old-school thinking there.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Old school too describes my loathing for pitchers being considered for MVP. They have their own award. A pitcher winning the CYA and MVP is like the winner of <i>Survivor</i> also getting the hundred grand as the fan favorite. That isn't right to me. Kershaw is behind McCutchen in fWAR but ahead of him in rWAR. Let's face it, Kershaw, unless he pitches at Coors the rest of the season, is going to win the CYA. Harvey of the Mets had a real chance until he blew out his elbow.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Andrew McCutchen has for five years been the bright light in the murky world that has been the Pirates. Now that his team is having this exceptional season, it is time to celebrate him. He should be one of the faces of the game. And he is the National League's most valuable player. </div>

Andrew McCutchen is the most valuable

I cannot imagine where the Pirates would be without Andrew McCutchen . That to me makes him the most valuable player in the National League...

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Pirates win the lottery with Francisco Liriano

<div style="text-align: justify;">Or did they? I pick the games every day. Perhaps you know that. As such, I see trends. I also follow the games in the evening and on Monday night, I was watching as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Francisco Liriano</a></strong> again won big with scary, impressive numbers. My first thought was, "Anybody could have had this guy." He was unwanted. His career was in such disarray that he could not ask for much money. It only took a million dollars for the Pirates to sign him. They did not do so until February. How lucky is that to get a pitcher pitching as well as Liriano for a million bucks that anyone else could have signed? Maybe not so lucky.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The questions posed by the first paragraph simply cannot be answered. Would Liriano be pitching as well for any other team? Was Pittsburgh just the right spot for him? In other words, the crux of the question is whether the Pirates got lucky signing such an effective pitcher or have they reached him and coached him to the point where he responded really well and may not have done so elsewhere. The Pirates turned around a similarly lost pitcher in <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">A.J. Burnett</a></strong> last year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To me there are only four possible answers and I will not pretend that I can answer definitively which is the truth here:</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates struck lightening in a bottle</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Liriano's success once again proves that it is easier to pitch in the National League</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates have restored his mechanics and confidence</li><li style="text-align: justify;">He is really no better, only luckier this year.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;">That is it. Those are the only possible answers. Let's take a look at them individually starting with the last one.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Francisco Liriano is not the same pitcher as he was a year ago or for the past few years for that matter. The biggest difference is his control. For the past two years, his walk percentage was five per nine innings. That is extremely high. This year, it is still high at 3.5 per nine, but that is significantly better and his best rate since 2010 and it shows in his stats.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His first pitch strike percentage is way up from 53.7% a year ago and a terrible 49.4% the year before to 58.4% this year. That is above his career average and his best since 2010. His zone percentage is not really higher, but his pitches out of the zone are being swung at with a much higher rate. So he is closer to the zone enticing batters to swing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And the quality of his pitches is up. His slider has always rated high. It did last year and that pitch is just as good this year as it was last year. But his fastball scored abysmally the last two seasons and is scoring much better this year. The biggest significant change is his change-up. That pitch was valued negatively the past two seasons but is worth 6.3 runs above average this year, the best of his career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So no, this is not luck. His BABIP might be down a bit from his career average but that might be because he is making better pitches.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What about this thing about pitching in the National League? There is simply not enough data to make a determination. He has pitched twice in American League parks this season. Once was in Comerica to play the Tigers and that did not go well. The second was in Anaheim to play the Angels and that went swimmingly.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is something to be said about pitching to the number 8 and 9 spots in the National League that is totally different in the AL. With the DH, the AL has hitters from 1-9 in the batting order. That is not the case in the NL. For example, this season, Liriano has a minuscule OPS against of .317 against eighth place batters this season and .357 against the ninth slot. Last year, that was .513 against the ninth spot and .636 against the eighth. The year before was much higher on both. So there is some difference pitching in the NL for him.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates took a calculated risk in obtaining him. And really, at a million dollars for this season, it was a no-brain risk. Liriano has always been a high tools guy who many felt was misused in Minnesota. That organization values strikes and low walk totals and that is not what Liriano is. He is a swing and miss guy with walk as part of the equation. It is similar to taking a power hitter with high homer rates and a lot of strikeouts along with the package.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Twins made his strikeout rate a question mark instead of an asset. He was always in the doghouse because of his walks. That is just who he is. The Pirates are letting him go out there and do his thing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Have the Pirates helped him with his mechanics? I do not know. It is highly likely. Have they helped him with his confidence? You would think that would be the case.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates made a calculated risk in signing Liriano and it has paid off in spades. Other teams could have made the same deal and did not. It may or may not have worked out the same for those teams had Liriano gone anywhere else. It is not one of those hypotheticals you can answer.  But he is 14-5 with a 2.66 FIP.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Liriano's RA9-WAR of 3.7 is currently eighteenth among all Major League starters, and this is despite having six less starts than the leaders. If he had those six starts, he would be in the top ten. His FIP is sixth in all of baseball and those above him and just below him are the Who's Who of pitchers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And he is the kind of shut down guy that everyone says you need in the post season. Whether the Pirates got lucky, or were shrewd, or have coached well or whatever, the Francisco Liriano to the Pirates story has been a real success story. Anyone could have had him. But the Pirates are the team that does. In fact, of all the stories in Pittsburgh in this first Pirates' winning season in forever, Francisco Liriano's might be the best story of them all. </div>

Pirates win the lottery with Francisco Liriano

Or did they? I pick the games every day. Perhaps you know that. As such, I see trends. I also follow the games in the evening and on Monday ...

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An ode to Jeff Karstens

<div style="text-align: justify;">I am a sucker for guys like <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/karstje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeff Karstens</a></strong>. And there is no rhyme or reason for the fact. It just is. Perhaps it is because he is a former Yankee and it is a personal habit to follow such creatures once they leave the New York nest. But he left a long time ago. Perhaps it is because he was not drafted until the nineteenth round of the 2003 draft. It is not hard to root for guys who had 573 guys chosen ahead of him in that draft so his signing bonus must have been like a Swiss army knife and some gift certificates to Wendy's. And yet Karstens still made it to the majors for a few emergency starts in 2006 and 2007. I root for guys like that.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Jeff Karstens is about as nondescript a pitcher as there is. He has pitched parts of seven seasons and has 91 big league starts and another 47 relief appearances. He has pitched in relative obscurity in Pittsburgh during some really challenging years there. He is not an All Star. He is not going to make the Hall of Fame. To look at him, he never seems to fit into his uniform. When he has attempted to pull off the scraggly, unshaven look affected by so many modern males, he just looks unkempt. His big league record is nondescript as well. He sports a career 26-40 record, good (bad?) for a .397 winning percentage. His career ERA is 4.44 and career FIP is 4.55. They are mundane numbers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And yet, I find that I am not alone in my suckerhood for the guy. When <i>MLB Rumors</i> <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/pirates-to-sign-jeff-karstens.html" target="_blank">announced</a> his signing by the Pirates for $2.5 million, it was after they unceremoniously dumped him to the non-tendered pile so the team wouldn't have to pay him more in arbitration. Any team could have had him at that point and yet he went back to Pittsburgh. The comments under the story are mostly from Pirate fans and they are mostly positive. Pirate fans appreciate him as a "bulldog" type of pitcher who hangs in there and doesn't get rattled and gives it all he has each outing. They like him. Some called it the GM's best move of the off-season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Is such a discourse an insult to the Pirates' off-season? Perhaps for some. But for others, it was a heartily approved signing to get one of their own back that has become a fixture for several years. Two of those seasons weren't very good. His WHIP in 2009 and 2010 were above 1.4 and one season, he even went 3-10. But how much of that was due to a woeful team and poor defense?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As I look at his last two seasons, Jeff Karstens hasn't been half bad. He pitched 162 innings in 2011 and went 9-9 with an ERA of 3.28. His FIP was higher at 4.29, but that's not a bad season. In 2012, he battled injuries and was limited to just over 90 innings. But his ERA was 3.97 and his FIP was 3.32. Again, that's not bad. And if you dig a little bit, you can see some good things.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His fastball has always been an 89 MPH fastball. But at least it hasn't headed south. His strikeout rate was abysmal earlier in his career. But in 2010 and 2011, it rose to mediocrity at 5.3 and in 2012, it rose again to 6.6. That's not bad. Combine that with his ability to avoid bases on balls and you get a very good 4.40 strikeout to walk ratio in 2012. Now we are getting somewhere.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His walk rate of 1.5 batters per nine innings was the best on his team. His 1.8 BB/9 was the best on the team in 2011 too. That walk rate gave him the best WHIP among Pirate starters in 2011. And his WHIP was the best among the Pirate starters in 2012.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But let's go even deeper. And maybe these numbers will blow your mind a little bit. Karstens must be deceptive because of all pitchers who pitched 90 innings or more in 2012, nobody enticed a higher swing percentage on his pitches out of the strike zone. Batters swung at 36.6 percent of his pitches out of the strike zone. And that rate was very good in 2010 and 2011 as well with both seasons coming in at 31.2% and 32% respectively.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Of all pitchers with more than 90 innings, he was 18th in getting first pitch strikes. That is another nice number. He was tied for 22nd in swinging strike percentage. And we are talking about over 200 pitchers here. His home run per fly ball rate was 12th lowest.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Am I cherry-picking numbers here? Well, probably. But Jeff Karstens is not a bad major league pitcher. In fact, I would go ahead and say that he would be better than the third or fourth starter on a lot of teams in baseball. He needs to stay healthy this season. And if he does, Jeff Karstens will keep the Pirates in the game. He went 5-4 in 2012 despite having the eighth lowest run support among all pitchers with 90 innings or more.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">No, it would not matter if these conclusions were reached. I would still be a sucker for the guy if he was terrible. But at least I root for a guy that is better than most people think. </div>

An ode to Jeff Karstens

I am a sucker for guys like Jeff Karstens . And there is no rhyme or reason for the fact. It just is. Perhaps it is because he is a former ...

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