Whiffing wonders - flipping a Marlon Byrd

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Anyone who has read my stuff for a while understands that I am not fond of strikeouts. I have often jousted against the notion that an out is an out is an out. I respectfully disagree. Strikeouts give the batter no opportunity to have anything other than an out where a batted ball will give the batter a 30% chance to get on base. One of the few scenarios where a strikeout is better than a batted ball is a double play. Knowing my predilection to this part of baseball is my discovery that <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Marlon Byrd</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> has done something in 2014 no player in the history of baseball has ever done before. Marlon Byrd struck out 150 times more than he walked in 2014.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Byrd had a pretty good offensive season by most standards. He had a 110 OPS+, hit 25 homers and drove in 85. In the world of the Phillies, that’s really productive. But when I saw that he had struck out 185 times and only walked 35 times, I was amazed and wondered if anyone had ever done that before.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Using Baseball-reference.com’s handy play index feature, I first looked for players with over 150 strikeouts in a season with less than 50 walks. That did give me a list of 57 all-time players. But I wasn’t sure if that was all inclusive. For example, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mark Reynolds</a></strong> once struck out 223 times and walked way more than fifty times. So then I searched players with more than 150 strikeouts in a season no matter how many walks there were. After all, you need a whole bunch of strikeouts to have 150 more of them than walks. I then subtracted the walks from the strikeouts in each case.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It turns out that exactly 200 batters have struck out more than 150 times in a season. Of those 150, 67 have struck out at least a hundred more times than walking in their season.  That is 33.5%. Of those 67, 23 have struck out 120 or more times than they have walked. Mark Reynolds has done it four times. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cartech01,cartech02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cartech01,cartech02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Carter</a></strong> has done it twice. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/incavpe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/incavpe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pete Incaviglia</a></strong> did it twice. And <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=alvarpe01,alvare002ped&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=alvarpe01,alvare002ped&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pedro Alvarez</a></strong> has done it twice.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Obviously, Pete Incaviglia was a man who played before his time. In fact, no player before 1963 ever struck out 150 or more times. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nichoda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nichoda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dave Nicholson</a></strong> was the first ever to reach that total in 1963. That season, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lockdo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lockdo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Don Lock</a></strong> also broke the magic 150 mark).</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The following chart shows how exponential the growth of the 150 strikeout season has become. In our current decade, now only five years in, we have seen 65 such seasons. For the chart’s purposes, I doubled that amount to give a projected total to show the growth of such seasons. In fact, in 2014 alone, ten players struck out at least 150 times, the same amount as the entire decade of the 1970s.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" href="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="hr growth" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-13489" data-mce-src="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" height="289" src="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" style="color: #444444; display: inline; float: left; height: auto; line-height: 1.5; margin: 4px 24px 12px 0px; max-width: 100%;" width="481" /></span></a></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And so it only makes sense that we have finally reached such a pinnacle of strikeouts that for the first time in the history of baseball, a player has struck out 150 more times than he has walked. We have flipped the Marlon Byrd.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The top ten seasons in more strikeouts than walks:</span></div><ol style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Marlon Byrd – 150</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Mark Ryenolds – 147 (2009)</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernajo01,hernan030jos,hernan020jos,hernan031jos,hernan035jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernajo01,hernan030jos,hernan020jos,hernan031jos,hernan035jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jose Hernandez</a></strong> – 146 (2001)</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Danny Espinoza – 143 (2012)</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Chris Carter (2013), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Drew Stubbs</a></strong> (2011) – 142</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zuninmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zuninmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Zunino</a></strong> (2014) – 141</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/preslji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/preslji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jim Presley</a></strong> (1986), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samueju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samueju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Juan Samuel</a></strong> (1984), Mark Reynolds (2008) – 140</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Pedro Alvarez (2013) – 138</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ian Desmond</a></strong> (2014) – 137</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jose Hernandez (2002), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso011chr,johnso013chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso011chr,johnso013chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Johnson</a></strong> (2014) – 136</span></li></ol><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I know that this issue drives me crazier than it should. But I can’t get over the fact that if Marlon Byrd had struck out 85 times instead of 185 times and put the ball in play those 100 times, he would have had 29 more hits (using a .291 BABIP for MLB with two strikes in 2014). If you gave him 29 more hits, even if they were all singles, his triple slash line would go from .264/.312/.445 to .313/.358/494. Strikeouts have risen to insane levels and we have finally flipped the Byrd.</span></div>

Whiffing wonders - flipping a Marlon Byrd

Anyone who has read my stuff for a while understands that I am not fond of strikeouts. I have often jousted against the notion that an out i...

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Swimming against the strikeout tide

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Never in the history of Major League Baseball has the strikeout been as prevalent as it is in today's game. The rate has risen every year and 2014 stands to break another record as the average strikeout rate in baseball is 7.73 strikeouts per nine. Even so, there are a few throwbacks to a bygone era whose current strikeout rates would not have been league average unless they pitched way back in 1981.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There are currently six pitchers who have pitched at least 50 innings who have a strikeout per nine rate less than 5.0 per nine. They are: <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maholpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maholpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Paul Maholm</a></strong> (3.96), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martini01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martini01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Martinez</a></strong> (4.22), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kevin Correia</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=youngch03,youngch04&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=youngch03,youngch04&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Young</a></strong> (4.48), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arroybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arroybr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Bronson Arroyo</a></strong> (4.92) and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kyle Gibson</a></strong> (4.93). Two of those pitch for the Twins.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It gets worse for the Twins from there. There are eighteen pitchers who have logged twenty innings or more this season with less than five strikeouts per nine innings and five of them are Twins. And <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrma02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrma02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Guerrier</a></strong> would be on the list too if he had two more innings pitched. Throw them strikes, boys, and let them hit the ball!</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The K/9 rate might not actually be the best way to look at strikeouts and pitchers. There is also strikeout percentage, which is all about the percentage of strikeouts per plate appearance rather than by inning. It might be a truer picture.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There are 21 pitchers whose strikeout percentage is less than 15% and who have pitched at least 50 innings. There are 55 who have done the trick with 20 innings or more. Just to give you some perspective, 20.3% is the Major League average. So these guys really are swimming against the strikeout tide.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Only one pitcher is averaging less than 10% for a strikeout rate with 50 or more innings and that is/was Paul Maholm. If you go to twenty innings or more, there are four: <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pelfrmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pelfrmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Pelfrey</a></strong> (8.4% [!]), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hawkila01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hawkila01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">LaTroy Hawkins</a></strong>--otherwise known as Methuselah--(9.8%), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carrosc02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carrosc02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Scott Carroll</a></strong> and Maholm at 9.7%.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For those who are close to Maholm with more than 50 innings, there is Nick Martinez at 10.7% in 59+ innings whose home ballpark is in Texas--not a good combination. Kevin Correia comes in at 11.3% followed by Chris Young at 12.2% and then by <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stulter01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stulter01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Eric Stults</a></strong> at 12.5%. These guys are fighting the tide and only Chris Young is somewhat succeeding with his offerings.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Last year, there were only five qualified starters who finished with less than 15% for a strikeout rate. The bottom two were <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guthrje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guthrje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeremy Guthrie</a></strong> and Kevin Correia. So far this year there are twelve. I don't know if that means there are more exceptions to the rule this year than last or that injuries have forced teams to go with more pitchers who do not fit today's pitching mold.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What I do know is that ten years ago (2005) there were 42 qualifying pitchers that finished with a strikeout percentage of less than 15%. While to this point, twelve is more than the two from last year, we can easily see that this is a dying breed.</span></div>

Swimming against the strikeout tide

Never in the history of Major League Baseball has the strikeout been as prevalent as it is in today's game. The rate has risen every yea...

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