Whiffing wonders - flipping a Marlon Byrd

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Anyone who has read my stuff for a while understands that I am not fond of strikeouts. I have often jousted against the notion that an out is an out is an out. I respectfully disagree. Strikeouts give the batter no opportunity to have anything other than an out where a batted ball will give the batter a 30% chance to get on base. One of the few scenarios where a strikeout is better than a batted ball is a double play. Knowing my predilection to this part of baseball is my discovery that <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Marlon Byrd</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> has done something in 2014 no player in the history of baseball has ever done before. Marlon Byrd struck out 150 times more than he walked in 2014.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Byrd had a pretty good offensive season by most standards. He had a 110 OPS+, hit 25 homers and drove in 85. In the world of the Phillies, that’s really productive. But when I saw that he had struck out 185 times and only walked 35 times, I was amazed and wondered if anyone had ever done that before.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Using Baseball-reference.com’s handy play index feature, I first looked for players with over 150 strikeouts in a season with less than 50 walks. That did give me a list of 57 all-time players. But I wasn’t sure if that was all inclusive. For example, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mark Reynolds</a></strong> once struck out 223 times and walked way more than fifty times. So then I searched players with more than 150 strikeouts in a season no matter how many walks there were. After all, you need a whole bunch of strikeouts to have 150 more of them than walks. I then subtracted the walks from the strikeouts in each case.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It turns out that exactly 200 batters have struck out more than 150 times in a season. Of those 150, 67 have struck out at least a hundred more times than walking in their season.  That is 33.5%. Of those 67, 23 have struck out 120 or more times than they have walked. Mark Reynolds has done it four times. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cartech01,cartech02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=cartech01,cartech02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Carter</a></strong> has done it twice. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/incavpe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/incavpe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pete Incaviglia</a></strong> did it twice. And <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=alvarpe01,alvare002ped&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=alvarpe01,alvare002ped&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pedro Alvarez</a></strong> has done it twice.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Obviously, Pete Incaviglia was a man who played before his time. In fact, no player before 1963 ever struck out 150 or more times. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nichoda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nichoda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dave Nicholson</a></strong> was the first ever to reach that total in 1963. That season, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lockdo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lockdo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Don Lock</a></strong> also broke the magic 150 mark).</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The following chart shows how exponential the growth of the 150 strikeout season has become. In our current decade, now only five years in, we have seen 65 such seasons. For the chart’s purposes, I doubled that amount to give a projected total to show the growth of such seasons. In fact, in 2014 alone, ten players struck out at least 150 times, the same amount as the entire decade of the 1970s.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" href="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="hr growth" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-13489" data-mce-src="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" height="289" src="http://www.flagrantfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/hr-growth.jpg" style="color: #444444; display: inline; float: left; height: auto; line-height: 1.5; margin: 4px 24px 12px 0px; max-width: 100%;" width="481" /></span></a></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And so it only makes sense that we have finally reached such a pinnacle of strikeouts that for the first time in the history of baseball, a player has struck out 150 more times than he has walked. We have flipped the Marlon Byrd.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The top ten seasons in more strikeouts than walks:</span></div><ol style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Marlon Byrd – 150</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Mark Ryenolds – 147 (2009)</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernajo01,hernan030jos,hernan020jos,hernan031jos,hernan035jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernajo01,hernan030jos,hernan020jos,hernan031jos,hernan035jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jose Hernandez</a></strong> – 146 (2001)</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Danny Espinoza – 143 (2012)</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Chris Carter (2013), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Drew Stubbs</a></strong> (2011) – 142</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zuninmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zuninmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Zunino</a></strong> (2014) – 141</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/preslji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/preslji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jim Presley</a></strong> (1986), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samueju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samueju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Juan Samuel</a></strong> (1984), Mark Reynolds (2008) – 140</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Pedro Alvarez (2013) – 138</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ian Desmond</a></strong> (2014) – 137</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jose Hernandez (2002), <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso011chr,johnso013chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso011chr,johnso013chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Johnson</a></strong> (2014) – 136</span></li></ol><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I know that this issue drives me crazier than it should. But I can’t get over the fact that if Marlon Byrd had struck out 85 times instead of 185 times and put the ball in play those 100 times, he would have had 29 more hits (using a .291 BABIP for MLB with two strikes in 2014). If you gave him 29 more hits, even if they were all singles, his triple slash line would go from .264/.312/.445 to .313/.358/494. Strikeouts have risen to insane levels and we have finally flipped the Byrd.</span></div>

Whiffing wonders - flipping a Marlon Byrd

Anyone who has read my stuff for a while understands that I am not fond of strikeouts. I have often jousted against the notion that an out i...

+ Read more »

The quiet quality of Cliff Lee

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The Philadelphia Phillies won 102 games in 2011 and won the National League East. That season completed a two-season arc that saw the team win 199 games. That seems so long ago. In the last two seasons, the team won only 154 games and has fallen into the also-ran status. None of that can be blamed on <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=leecl02,leecl01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=leecl02,leecl01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Cliff Lee</a></strong>. Lee has been basically the same pitcher from the good times to the bad.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">How well Cliff Lee has done has gotten lost in the shuffle. I am newly aware of fantasy baseball rankings as I have begun my first adventure in that world. It struck me odd that Lee was owned by 99% in leagues. Shouldn't that be 100%? The guy is the closest thing there is to a metronome in pitching. Year in and year out, his peripherals rarely vary.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Everybody knows that Cliff Lee does not walk people. But they also forget that he strikes out batters to the tune of one an inning. Just look at his K/9 rate over the last three years respectively: 9.2, 8.8 and 9.0. You cannot get more consistent than that. I just looked at his spring numbers. His K/9 rate this spring is 8.7. The metronome.<br /><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">He has led the National League (and probably baseball) in strikeout to walk ratio in each of the last two years and three of the last five. Over the last four years, he has struck out 852 batters and walked only 120. That is a four year average of 7.1 strikeouts per walk. Amazing.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Cliff Lee has also been reliable as they come. He has six straight seasons of over 200 innings. His WHIP in his four years with the Phillies has been 1.058. He has made a lot of money. And he has earned it.</div><iframe frameborder="0" height="543" scrolling="no" src="//embed.gettyimages.com/embed/182044707?et=-Jzr4nRQv0KkRB9-qeNmvA&sig=P8TOWN6OIucOAAmzAp-lcDJspRSvNsGkN89miSCbrao=" width="594"></iframe> <br /><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">In his four years  with the Phillies, Lee's FIP has been under 3.00 three times and has never been higher than 3.13.  And somehow, he has kept getting better as he has gotten older. His rate of getting batters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone has never been higher than it has been the past four years. His rate of getting first-pitch strikes has never been as high as the last four years. His swinging strike rate has never been higher than the last four years.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Throughout his time with the Phillies, he has never been considered the Number One pitcher on his team. There was Halladay, who was brilliant and there was Hamels, who shined off and on. But Halladay is gone, Hamels struggled in 2013 and is starting slow with injuries this year. Through it all, Cliff Lee has been the pitcher to count on.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">There has been a lot of talk this spring about the Phillies trading Cliff Lee. After all, they do not appear to be going anywhere presently. The team could eat a lot of the money and still save and perhaps get prospects in return. And that might be a good thing for Lee, though he might not see it that way.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">And that's because Cliff Lee should be pitching to more glory than he is. Since the Phillies have fallen on hard times, he has been forgotten a bit. And that is a shame. Because Cliff Lee has been fantastic.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Over the past six seasons, his rWAR has been 37.5 or 6.25 rWAR per season. Fangraphs has him at 37.1 or 6.12 fWAR over the same period. That is a half dozen years of wonderful quality. The projections do not expect him to slow down much despite the fact that he is now 35 years old. And if this spring is any indication, Cliff Lee just keeps rolling and dealing.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">It is just too bad that he might be doing so for a team going nowhere.</div>

The quiet quality of Cliff Lee

The Philadelphia Phillies won 102 games in 2011 and won the National League East. That season completed a two-season arc that saw the team w...

+ Read more »

Are the Phillies as bad as they look?

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Spring Training results are meaningless. The statistics mean nothing. There is nothing to see here. At least those are the things we are told. But what if miserable Spring Training results follow a miserable season and do not even look up to snuff to reach the miserable win projections the computers have in store for them in 2014? Maybe they are not so meaningless.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The Phillies of 2013 lost 89 games. The pitching, which just a couple of years ago looked dominant for years, finished fourteenth out of fifteen teams in earned run average. The offense, which was considered worse than the pitching, finished twelfth in OPS. That is hardly a recipe for good things to happen.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">And what has the team done to bolster its 2014 chances? They brought in <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">A.J. Burnett</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernaro01,carmofa01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernaro01,carmofa01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Roberto Hernandez</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Marlon Byrd</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/abreubo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Bobby Abreu</a></strong>. I don't know about you, but that wouldn't make me slap my knee and say, "Hot dang!" if I was a fan.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Burnett had better years for the Pirates, but he is just a few years from being run out of New York. Roberto Hernandez could not be fixed by the always fixing Tampa Bay Rays last season and was awful. Abreu is old and a wing and a prayer and Marlon Byrd rose from the dead last year for a very good season. Can he repeat it?</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Top it off with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a></strong> still being out of action all spring and shut down again recently and things are not looking good. So when I see a Spring Training record of 2-9-2, I do not see meaningless.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=leecl02,leecl01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=leecl02,leecl01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Cliff Lee</a></strong> is still slinging them from the left side and has been very good, but as usual, he has gotten no run support. Roberto Hernandez has looked okay but Burnett and hold-over, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kyle Kendrick</a></strong> have gotten cuffed around. Yes, it is early. It is always early. But it sure is troubling. Without Hamels, there is no fifth starter.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">And then you get to the infield. So far this spring, the second basemen, shortstops and third basemen are a combined 25 for 176, a .142 batting average. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a></strong> has three singles and a walk in twenty plate appearances. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a></strong> has two hits so far, one of them a homer. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ascheco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ascheco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Cody Asche</a></strong> has three extra-base hits. But those are his only hits and he has struck out over 30% of the time. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/galvifr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/galvifr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Freddy Galvis</a></strong> is batting .136. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frandke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frandke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kevin Frandsen</a></strong> is batting .158 and on and on it goes.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">And then everyone is looking at the big guy at first base. Will he be platooned this season since he has lost the ability to hit lefties? <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/howarry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/howarry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Howard</a></strong> is batting .182 with two doubles and no homers and has struck out 37.4% of the time this spring. Meanwhile <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rufda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rufda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Darin Ruf</a></strong> is killing the ball. Good luck with that situation, Mr. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryne Sandberg</a></strong>.</div><iframe frameborder="0" height="669" scrolling="no" src="//embed.gettyimages.com/embed/174014446?et=g4WI82rJskqcphpssmjfQg&sig=0LCQvMh_sYOe4ZuET7EMshuOfh7rkUIknhpacGkBCIE=" width="400"></iframe> <br /><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The outfield has been a slightly better story. Well...at least for two thirds of the outfield. Marlon Byrd and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=maybejo02,maybejo01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=maybejo02,maybejo01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">John Mayberry</a></strong>, Jr. are hitting well. But <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/browndo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/browndo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Domonic Brown</a></strong> is batting .091 with just two singles and a 30% strikeout rate.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Bobby Abreu was a nice story when first heard, but he is not hitting and looks old. And old describes many parts of the team. Rollins and Utley can still play up the middle, but their best years are behind them. Ryan Howard has not earned his keep in years with injuries and a bat that swings and misses way too often. Byrd will have to prove that despite his age, last year was not a fluke.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The bullpen should be okay, though <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/papeljo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/papeljo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jonathan Papelbon</a></strong> has the bad habit of opening his mouth too often. But the overall pitching staff does not look promising at this point.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The projections have the Phillies finishing the same as a year ago with 73 wins and 89 losses. This is now Ryne Sandberg's team, but how much will that make a difference? He doesn't pitch and he doesn't bat. And the team did not get a significant boost when he took over last season.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Spring Training doesn't mean anything. That is what everyone says. And so I often have to caution myself from making too much of what I see. But what I see currently is a team that will be very fortunate to win 73 games. The 2014 Philadelphia Phillies look dreadful and it might be a very long season.</div>

Are the Phillies as bad as they look?

Spring Training results are meaningless. The statistics mean nothing. There is nothing to see here. At least those are the things we are tol...

+ Read more »

Freddy Galvis kicks teammate where the sun don't shine

When I get up in the morning, I like to go to MLB.com and watch the walk-off highlights. Now I know my friend, Mike Bates (@commnman) hates the term, "walk-off," so I know I am already in trouble. But the events are about as close to a sudden death situation as baseball gets. The walk-off homer is about as exciting as it gets for a home team. A team's player hits a homer that wins the game and the visiting team walks sadly off the field and the player who hit the homer pumps his fists, rounds third, throws his helmet and gets mobbed at home plate.<br /><br />These events get a little passe after a while. There is a lot of jumping, the teams all huddle around the hero and there is whooping and hollering. They usually throw water at the guy or try to rip his shirt off. And the post-game interview usually involves shaving cream. If you have seen one, you have seen them all. The best ever was Prince Fielder's in Milwaukee where he landed on home plate and all his players fell over. But mostly, they are all the same.<br /><br />Well, yesterday, Kevin Frandsen hit a walk-off homer for the Phillies, and all of the above elements were in there. But there was an added bonus. The video showed Freddy Galvis kicking his teammate where the sun does not shine. Galvis did not do it once. He did it twice. I will try to embed the video. If that does not work, see <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=28898650&content_id=28263729" target="_blank">this link</a> to watch it.<br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://wapc.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=28263729&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> <br />So Galvis could be forgiven for his enthusiasm. But what the heck was he thinking? Sheesh. The second one connected in such a way that junk might have been involved. Ouch. Next time, Freddy, just pat the guy on the back, okay?

Freddy Galvis kicks teammate where the sun don't shine

When I get up in the morning, I like to go to MLB.com and watch the walk-off highlights. Now I know my friend, Mike Bates (@commnman) hates ...

+ Read more »

Jimmy Rollins - on legacy and leading off

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a></strong> is a legacy player for the Philadelphia Phillies. In a game where few stars play at a premium position such as shortstop and play it as well as he has, Rollins has had a great thirteen seasons. Baseball-reference.com has given him a total of 41.8 WAR for his career. Fangraphs.com has given him 44.8 WAR. So both agree that Rollins has been a terrific player in his career. My one problem with his legacy really is not his fault. Some 78.4% of his career plate appearances have come as a lead-off batter. This season, when <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ben Revere</a></strong> got off to a slow start, Jimmy Rollins was again put on top of the lineup and has now been there for the last fifteen games. Rollins is not a good lead-off batter.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"But wait, William," you say, "he has scored over a hundred runs on six different occasions including last season." Yes, I hear you. He has also stolen over thirty bases ten times, four of those times over forty and had over thirty steals last year. I get it. But that still does not mean he is a lead-off batter. Let me explain. You might even think he has been a better lead-off batter than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a></strong> (who has really only batted lead-off for about half his career. Look at the following War Graph from Fangraphs and remember that most of Jeter's value comes from his offense whereas at least a third or more of Rollins' value comes from defense:</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguTOdWn6Sr7TiXhT0Y4Ir94eEqMQr1BDERiw_RwpWoTDqcJaiMLk8YdBLsVtPQqbL7IOp-DlsCX9zOGMnOGOhJm2aazHvacEC8eqcRv75EOtN02cQAOL5Gj91lFywPhXwYNse-kP0ghiM/s1600/chart+(4).png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguTOdWn6Sr7TiXhT0Y4Ir94eEqMQr1BDERiw_RwpWoTDqcJaiMLk8YdBLsVtPQqbL7IOp-DlsCX9zOGMnOGOhJm2aazHvacEC8eqcRv75EOtN02cQAOL5Gj91lFywPhXwYNse-kP0ghiM/s400/chart+(4).png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Jeter has clearly been the better offensive player.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Here is some facts to back my argument about Jimmy Rollins as a lead-off batter. Look at this spreadsheet picture of Rollins' on-base percentage compared to the entire major leagues for each season he has played and then also compare it to the average on-base percentage of lead-off batters year by year:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfrIsWXtEQg4444BfWikCWfHY8DCuXsxHp5k1R8tFsod_w-XQqeX1MsKhSuBz_hWGiPm_9s5tESDJTg4C_tWbxkP4beeHl3uZUvv-3n4wLgCrUfi8hVjY4vpT_QDrGKHOyitwrM_wwlWA/s1600/Rollins+on-base.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfrIsWXtEQg4444BfWikCWfHY8DCuXsxHp5k1R8tFsod_w-XQqeX1MsKhSuBz_hWGiPm_9s5tESDJTg4C_tWbxkP4beeHl3uZUvv-3n4wLgCrUfi8hVjY4vpT_QDrGKHOyitwrM_wwlWA/s1600/Rollins+on-base.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">There have only been five of Rollins' seasons where he had a higher on-base percentage than league average and only three times has he had a higher on-base percentage than the average lead-off batter in baseball. Two of those times, he was just barely over average. Only his 2011 on-base percentage was significantly higher than the average lead-off batter. To see it better, here is the same information in graph form:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjovt3Z59MCmWqSDCRkqWl7ujZeUhOy6OHGQNsra31T2ZzyGUx50fQbA0dSUaEm9Op8UyTKIjtX4yIy7Sqq26LMgQ9xoaQBc6zn1xyMjUl1Ks0BuUFUdscuFqntVw3Xw_swi5w6ZKin3Y8/s1600/Rollins+on-base+graph.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjovt3Z59MCmWqSDCRkqWl7ujZeUhOy6OHGQNsra31T2ZzyGUx50fQbA0dSUaEm9Op8UyTKIjtX4yIy7Sqq26LMgQ9xoaQBc6zn1xyMjUl1Ks0BuUFUdscuFqntVw3Xw_swi5w6ZKin3Y8/s1600/Rollins+on-base+graph.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">You might be stuck on those 102 runs he scored last season. You might counter that Rollins was on base 210 times last season. Yes, he was. But that was 78th in baseball. And Rollins played 156 games last season. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">So who, then, should bat lead-off for the Phillies? I would go with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=,youngmi02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></strong>. Young's current on-base percentage is .386. Young's career on-base percentage is .347, which is 19 points higher than Rollins' career on-base percentage.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Again, do not get me wrong here. Jimmy Rollins has been worth every penny he has made from the Philadelphia Phillies. When his bat was not great, he glove was. He has earned his legacy place in Phillies history. If he plays six or seven more seasons, he will come close to 3,000 hits. All I am saying here is that he is not the best suited for lead-off. His on-base percentage has often not been high enough. And the one thing you want from the first guy in your lineup is to get on base.</div><br />

Jimmy Rollins - on legacy and leading off

Jimmy Rollins is a legacy player for the Philadelphia Phillies. In a game where few stars play at a premium position such as shortstop and...

+ Read more »

Any last hurrahs for Utley and Howard?

<div style="text-align: justify;">Once upon a time in our not too distant past, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Chase Utley</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/howarry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ryan Howard</a></strong> were a two-man wrecking crew for the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2006, the two combined for 13.7 fWAR as Howard hit 58 homers and Chase Utley was in the second year of a five-year run that might be among the best runs ever for a second baseman. Howard has never matched the incredible numbers he put up in 2006, but he did hit 145 homers combined in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The two were part of a World Series Championship in Philadelphia in 2008 and were beaten by the Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Those were heady times.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Howard slipped in value in 2010 and 2011 and in his last playoff game of 2011, tore his Achilles tendon and only played in 71 games in 2012 finishing with a fWAR value of less than zero. Utley ran into a series of medical problems starting in 2010 and has played 115, 103 and 83 games respectively in the last three seasons. When he played, he still showed some value, but, as you can imagine, that value was about half of what it had been in that incredible five-year run.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So what will 2013 bring for the pair? Are their glory days gone for good? Can they (or should they) play a full season? The good news is that both are playing a lot in this Spring Training. Ryan Howard is killing the ball with four homers and four doubles accounting for half of his eight hits this spring. Utley has a homer and two doubles but is hitting about .200 in his spring games. Is the fact they are playing a full spring schedule a sign that they might just have some of that old magic left in them for the 2013 season? The projections are mixed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">First off, projection systems like PECOTA see the Phillies as a .500 team. And the projections for Utley and Howard do not seem to predict that they will make much of a difference to change the Phillies' chances of improving on that record. Let's look at both players and see if there is any hope for some sort of renaissance season for either or both of them.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's start with Ryan Howard. The five projection systems that Fangraphs.com list on Howard's player page do not have hope that Ryan Howard will be any better than he was in 2010 and 2011. The WAR range from the five systems project him anywhere from 0.9 WAR (ZiPS) to 1.8 (Fans34). PECOTA rates him much higher and checking in with Baseball Prospectus his projection there is a somewhat healthier 2.2 WAR projection. Despite the higher projection, PECOTA doesn't see Howard finishing higher than an OPS of .812.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While that is not that bad of an OPS, with Howard's diminished defense and base running, he still doesn't project anywhere close to where he was from 2007 to 2009.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">You pretty much have to throw out Howard's 2012 season. The numbers simply do not fit in any category to his career numbers (or even his 2010 and 2011 numbers). His plate discipline went out the window and whereas he used to swing at only 25% of pitches out of the strike zone, that number ballooned to 37% in 2012. His strikeout rate also blew up from its already high 27.8% career percentage to 33.9%. Those numbers should be thrown out the window as a year adjusting to a bad wheel and not really being in any kind of shape to play.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But you cannot dismiss his 2010 and 2011 seasons when he lost some of his plate discipline and went from that aforementioned 25% to the low 30's percent range for swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He did not strike out more than he had before, but his wOBA or TAv (pick your favorite) was thirty to forty points lower than where he had been as recently as 2009.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The spring he is having is encouraging and perhaps is a sign that he can produce somewhere near where he was in 2009. But the odds seem in better favor of him staying at his 2010 and 2011 levels. He will need to regain some of his plate discipline of the past and make pitchers pitch to him to return to some semblance of his old form.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Oddly, the feeling here is that there is more cause for optimism for Chase Utley than there is for Howard. One of the reasons is that Utley's game is still more complete than Howard's. Despite playing only 83 games in 2012, Utley still garnered eight runs above average in fielding from Baseball-reference.com and 5.5 above average at Fangraphs.com. Plus, Utley still scores high for his base running skills.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The other thing to look at is that Utley's BABIP has been ridiculously low for both 2011 and 2012 at .269 and .261 respectively. If you look at his line drives, for example, his BABIP on line drives in 2012 was .528. That may sound high, but the league average is a hundred points higher than that. His ISO was off about seventy points from his super hero days. But his home run to fly ball percentage rebounded a bit in 2012 from a career low in 2011.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Looking deeper at Utley's numbers, he still maintained his plate discipline and he swung and missed at pitches at a very low 4.7%, the lowest of his career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Most of the projections for Utley are not encouraging. They have him in the 3.2 to 3.5 WAR(P) range. All of them see his wOBA and TAv off by twenty points from his career average. Until proven otherwise, it is hard to fault these projections. But then again, both B-R and Fangraphs had him at 2.9 and 3.4 respectively for 83 games in 2012. If he plays 135 to 140 games, there is no reason not to think he can represent about a five or six WAR season. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The key is their continued health. It is encouraging to see them both playing so often this spring. That seems to indicate that they are both healthy...or at least healthier. If they can both obtain 550 to 600 plate appearances, there is a chance that both can rebound nicely to some semblance of what they were from 2009. Howard is 33 and Utley is 34. So neither is ancient by baseball standards. It would be fun to see them both rebound in 2013. It still might not be enough to overcome both the Braves and the Nationals. But it would be fun for baseball. </div>

Any last hurrahs for Utley and Howard?

Once upon a time in our not too distant past, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard were a two-man wrecking crew for the Philadelphia Phillies. In...

+ Read more »

The remarkably similar careers of Tim Hudson and Roy Halladay

<div style="text-align: justify;">Before launching further into the thought process of the bombastic heading of this post, some declarative statements need to be made. First, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a></strong> has been a much more valuable pitcher over his career than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a></strong>. Roy Halladay has won two Cy Young Awards and probably should have won another. Tim Hudson has never won a Cy Young Award and probably never will. Roy Halladay has accumulated ten more wins above replacement in his career according to Baseball-reference.com and twenty more according to Fangraphs. But all that being said, a lot of the same end results are remarkably similar.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's start with some basic (and now mostly discredited statistics):</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay: 199-100 .666 winning percentage,  3.31 career ERA</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Tim Hudson:  197-103  .654 winning percentage, 3.42 career ERA</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That's pretty darned close, isn't it? Halladay has pitched 403 times and compiled 2,687.1 innings. Hudson has pitched 406 times with 2,682.1 innings. Those numbers are virtually identical.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Tim Hudson has given up 2,504 hits and 210 homers. Roy Halladay has given up 2,594 hits and 224 homers. Those numbers are pretty darned close too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For his career, Roy Halladay has allowed a .666 OPS against with 3,811 total bases allowed. Tim Hudson has allowed a .674 OPS against with 3,675 total bases allowed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has allowed 987 earned runs. Tim Hudson has allowed 1,019. That is a total difference of 32 runs for virtually the same amount of innings pitched.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has faced 11,005 batters in his career. Tim Hudson has faced 11,157. Roy Halladay has induced batters to hit into 248 double plays. Tim Hudson has turned 282 ground balls into double plays. Tim Hudson has allowed 55 sacrifice flies, Roy Halladay, 59.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has a .625 winning percentage on the road. Tim Hudson has a .620 winning percentage on the road. Roy Halladay has won 90 games on the road. Tim Hudson has won 93.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has pitched 94 times when his own team scored two runs or less and has won 19 of those games. Tim Hudson has pitched 91 times when his own team scored two runs or less and has won 19 of those games.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A batter leading off an inning against Roy Halladay has hit a home run 69 times against Roy Halladay in 2,737 chances. A batter leading off an inning against Tim Hudson has hit a home run 67 times in 2,764 chances.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has a combined OPS against of .672 against non-pitchers. Tim Hudson has a combined OPS against of .688 against non-pitchers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Tim Hudson has only loaded the bases with no outs 28 times in his career. Roy Halladay has only put himself in that position 32 times. Roy Halladay has an OPS against of .661 in high leverage situations. Tim Hudson has an OPS against of .657 in high leverage situations.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Are a lot of these statistics cherry-picked? Well, yes, sure. And in the final analysis, Roy Halladay has been the better pitcher. His K/BB ratio is much better, his xFIP is much better and so forth. The purpose of this post was not to build a case that Tim Hudson has been as good as Roy Halladay. But perhaps the purpose has been to show the final results have been much more similar than you might have thought. </div>

The remarkably similar careers of Tim Hudson and Roy Halladay

Before launching further into the thought process of the bombastic heading of this post, some declarative statements need to be made. First,...

+ Read more »

Phillies' Erik Kratz is a very good catcher

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kratzer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Erik Kratz</a></strong> proves something I have been saying for an awfully long time. Year after year of watching guys like Olivo and Barajas and a half dozen other old catchers playing for a couple of mil a years is kind of stupid. There has to be catchers in the minors that can do just as well or better than the geriatric "clubhouse" guys who general managers and manager seem to adore. Erik Kratz played eleven minor league seasons and played 766 games down there. Most of that time was spent in the Toronto organization that drafted him in the 29th Round of the 2002 draft. Thankfully, and fittingly, Kratz got some playing time in 2012 for the Phillies, and ended up opening some eyes.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Kratz spent 2009 and 2010 in the Pirates' organization. He sat in Triple-A while the Pirates decided to start Doumit, everyone's worst catcher in baseball for the last several seasons. Puzzling. At least him sitting at Triple-A for the Phillies is a little more understandable in 2011 because the Phillies have had a very good catcher in Ruiz. But when Ruiz got hurt, Kratz got a chance to play and he did not disappoint.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I have long been fascinated with catching metrics that are not in your every day stats. The kind of work that Mike Fast did before getting hired by the Astros was groundbreaking but still hasn't become mainstream. Lookout Landing, that hotbed of inspiring stat work recently included a <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/11/16/3651804/a-look-at-catchers-and-others-pitch-framing-performance" target="_blank">post</a> by "Matthew" that was basically written to see where the Mariners were in their catching work. But he came up with his own stats that in large part agreed with what Fast did, but also included 2012. While Matthew does not deliver his entire list, he rated Erik Kratz as fifth best in baseball at framing pitches.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It should be stated that catching for the Phillies means catching guys like Lee and Halladay who are going to get some calls other pitchers do not. But still, coming in fifth gives Kratz a huge amount of value.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Then add in that Kratz threw out 45% of base steal attempts when the league average is 27% and we are getting someplace fast. Add to all these goodies in that Kratz held his own on offense and finished with a 114 OPS+ and it is easy to say, "Where you been, big fella?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Kratz is a big reason why the Phillies do not have to be overly concerned about Ruiz serving his suspension to start the season. Kratz is terrific and should have gotten a chance in the majors a long time ago. At least a couple times a year, I will rant and rave on how and why GMs and teams hang on to these revolving door catchers that add no value and get contracts year after year simply because they are "veteran catchers." Kratz is Exhibit A on why that has always been a bad model and cheaper and more effective catchers simply have to be out there among all those minor league receivers. </div>

Phillies' Erik Kratz is a very good catcher

Erik Kratz proves something I have been saying for an awfully long time. Year after year of watching guys like Olivo and Barajas and a hal...

+ Read more »

Five reasons why Michael Young will bounce back with the Phillies

<div style="text-align: justify;">Rangers fans are left this week pondering the mixed legacy of their now departed <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></strong>. As a legacy member of that team, Young had produced far more positive moments for the Rangers than the other way around. But his contract--which is not his fault--combined with two episodes of whining at position changes despite that contract--which is his fault--led to a falloff of some of that fan ardor. Add to the mix his horrid 2012 and the prospect of less playing time in 2013 and you have the perfect timing of his trade to the Phillies. And while it is true that he has little way else to go but up after last season, there are reasons to suspect that he will bounce back for his new team.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's look at five good reasons why Michael Young will bounce back in 2013:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;">It seems clear that Michael Young never gelled in the designated hitter position and is much more comfortable playing in the field. In 2012, his triple slash line as a DH was: .265/.295/.367 in 292 plate appearances. In 108 plate appearances as a third baseman, his triple slash line was: .307/.352/.396. Yes, there is an element of small sample size there but looking at his career splits, he has compiled a career OPS as a DH of .784 while compiling a career OPS of .817 as a third baseman. The Phillies intend to make him their starting third baseman which will allow him to concentrate on just one thing.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">There were some anomalies in his batting stats for 2012 compared to the rest of his career. For example, looking at his batted ball data, Young traditionally had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.5. That skyrocketed to 2.22 in 2012. His line drive percentage remained high, but his increased number of ground balls led to a BABIP of .242 on batted balls with that trajectory and a lowering of his historical BABIP from .334 (career) to .299 last year. Let's say that was a fluke and his hit trajectory goes back to his career norms, then he'll bounce back. 2012 also saw an uncharacteristic loss of plate discipline. For his career, he has swung at only 23.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. That rate has been closer to 30 the past three seasons and 33 percent in 2013. If he gets back on track in that category, that will also help.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Michael Young played in a very tough pitching division last season. The Angels and Athletics had shutdown starters and even the Mariners could bring King Felix. Young moves to a division where he will face the Mets nineteen times and the Marlins eighteen times. Both of those teams should have difficulties maintaining a rotation, especially if the Mets jettison Dickey. Plus, the Mets boast two left-handed starters in Santana and Niese and Young kills left-handed pitching.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">One glaring statistical anomaly for Young in 2012 was his loss of effectiveness against the fastball. For his career, Young has compiled 147.3 runs above average against the fastball, an average of 14.7 runs above average per season. The prior three years, he averaged 24.3 runs above average. And then suddenly, he scores a -7.1 against the fastball in 2012!?  That will bounce back.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The statistical gurus state that walk years on player contracts have not statistically proven to be that much better than a player's normal seasons. But it still matters. There is a renewed emphasis to get one last contract and to prove his career is not over. That combined with a new situation with a new team will give him all kinds of incentive to get back to some semblance of his normal self.</li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Look, Mighael Young has always been a mixed bag as a player. He has compiled better than decent wins above replacement on offense while losing a third of that total with his defense. He was overrated and overpaid with the Rangers. But on the Phillies, all he has to do is his part and he will help what was a pretty pathetic offense in Philadelphia this past season. Write it down: Michael Young is going to have a bounce back season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

Five reasons why Michael Young will bounce back with the Phillies

Rangers fans are left this week pondering the mixed legacy of their now departed Michael Young . As a legacy member of that team, Young had...

+ Read more »

A payday for Kevin Frandsen

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frandke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Frandsen</a></strong> did not get rich a few days ago when the Phillies signed him for $850,000 plus incentives. That is certainly not big money when it comes to baseball contracts. But when you think that it took eight years of minor league ball and several cups of coffee for him to stick at the major league level, that is a pretty big deal. But his signing doesn't mean that the Phillies will actually hand him the third base job. The team is rumored in on the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youklke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Youkilis</a></strong> sweepstakes. Such is the life for Frandsen, a guy who has never had it easy.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To get some sort of picture of what it took Frandsen to reach this point, here is a sequence of events leading up to his 201 plate appearances for the Phillies in 2012:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Played at a small San Jose college and set the record there for hits.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Not drafted until the 370th pick (12th round) by the Giants in 2004.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Hit well in his first two minor league seasons and appeared in 41 games for the Giants in 2006. He finished with a .607 OPS.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Appeared in 109 games for the Giants in 2007 and played at five different appearances. Fared better at the plate with a .710 OPS and a .331 on-base percentage.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Blew out his Achilles tendon in 2008 and missed the entire season except for one at bat in the last game of the season.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">In the spring of 2009, Frandsen was in a competition with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burriem01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Emmanuel Burriss</a></strong> for the starting second base job. Burriss won. How ignoble is that? Can't even beat out Emmanuel Burriss? He was sent to the minors</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Only appeared in a handful of big league games in 2009 and finished with a .384 OPS. Ugh.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Was traded by the Giants to the Red Sox for cash and an unknown player to be named later on March 26, 2010. </li><li style="text-align: justify;">After just a three-day look, the Red Sox optioned him on March 29th of that same year.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The Red Sox then DFA'd him a month later on April 28.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The Angels took him off waivers a day later</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Frandsen played in 54 games for the Angels in 2010 at five different positions. Again, he did not hit an finished with a .613</li><li style="text-align: justify;">The Angels non-tendered him after the season.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Signed a minor league deal with the Padres on January 5, 2011. They released him two months and twenty days later.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Signed with the Phillies to a minor league contract in 2011 and he did not see any major league playing time. </li><li style="text-align: justify;">Signed a minor league deal with the Phillies again in 2012 and played 99 games for the Triple A, Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Polanco hurts himself and on July 29, 2012, Frandsen was recalled from the minors and played nearly every day for the remainder of the season.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That is quite a long ride to earn himself (finally) a nearly million dollar deal! But Frandsen played really well when he got his chance this time. He rated above league average in the field, mostly at third base. He batted .338 with a .383 on-base percentage. His .834 OPS was good for a 124 OPS+.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And it should not be that big a surprise. In 2,563 plate appearances in the minors, Frandsen had a .310 batting average with a .368 on-base percentage.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Phillies do not quite trust what they saw though. As stated, they are in the hunt for Youkilis and if they don't get him, they have stated that they would consider platooning Frandsen with Galvis. Seriously? Frandsen did not have any kind of batting split against right-handed pitchers. Most of his plate appearances were against right-handers and look at the numbers he put up.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is some understanding of the Phillies' reticence. Frandsen's game does have a few weaknesses. He doesn't walk much with only a 5.4 percent rate for 836 big league plate appearances. He does not have power. As good as his season was, his ISO was only .111. Teams like their third basemen to have some pop. And Frandsen hits too many ground balls. His ground ball to fly ball rate was over two.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But there are strengths to his game. He hardly ever strikes out and his swing and miss rate is only 5.6 percent for his career. He hits a lot of line drives and again, he plays good defense.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Frandsen's story is one of perseverance. You root for guys like him. His fine two months of play last season will not guarantee him anything with the Phillies heading into 2013. But at least it guarantees him a major league job all season and his first real payday of his career. His game isn't ideal. But it is not half bad either. </div>

A payday for Kevin Frandsen

Kevin Frandsen did not get rich a few days ago when the Phillies signed him for $850,000 plus incentives. That is certainly not big money ...

+ Read more »