The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing factors. I also fully understand that they are somewhat helpful to fantasy baseball players. But projections are not perfect and never have been.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I do not have a favorite projection system. I may like ZiPs a little more because I follow the guy on Twitter and he is personable. But they all have their place and some are more conservative than others.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system and it tends to be conservative. I found their top fifteen position player projections very interesting. As such, I wanted to spend some time with these fifteen players and give you an over/under on whether PECOTA was too conservative or not. Too conservative is an over vote. Not conservative enough is an under vote. I will give you the player, the projected triple slash line, WAR(P) and then a justification of over or under. Here we go.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">15</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a></strong> - .261/.350/.480  4.3 WARP: This is very conservative, so over. I don't have too much of a problem with the triple slash line as they are near to what Longoria did last year. But I consider Longoria's season a year ago to be disappointing on the offensive side. I think he will be better. And his fielding puts him over six WAR easily.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">14</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> - .315/.402/.456  4.4 WARP: These numbers are all under his career averages and he beat each of them last year. Playing first base will free him up physically and as <a data-mce-href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/02/ranking-joe-mauer-among-first-basemen.html" href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/02/ranking-joe-mauer-among-first-basemen.html" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">I wrote a few days ago</a>, I think that will lead to bigger offensive numbers and make up for his loss of positional value by moving to the dead zone of first base. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">13</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Kemp</a></strong> - .282/.344/.486  4.5 WARP: PECOTA must be still smoking whatever Kemp was having back in 2011. Of all the systems I have looked at, this is the most optimistic version of Matt Kemp of all of them. Unless proven otherwise, the 2011 Matt Kemp is gone for good in a haze of shoulder troubles. Under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">10</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> - .285/.393/.518  4.7 WARP: All the systems are conservative on Fielder, which is odd considering that he is moving from one of the toughest stadiums on hitters to one of the best. PECOTA is more optimistic than all the others for the big first baseman but still only projects him to hit 33 homers. Based on an albeit small sample size, I think he will hit 20 homers at home and 13 on the road should be a piece of cake. All Fielder has to do is get back to where he was in 2012 to beat this projection. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">10</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> - .278/.358/.465  4.7 WARP: This is probably the easiest one of the bunch. McCutchen has beaten these numbers in each of the last two seasons. Barring injury (knocking wood), he should breeze by these numbers. My only concern is if the Pirates fall back to a non-contention team. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">10</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a></strong> - .294/.367/.466  4.7 WARP: Projecting a catcher is always problematic because so much depends on dings and dents accumulated over the season. All you have to do is look at the wild swing of Posey's fWAR numbers over the last four seasons to see what I mean: 3.9, 1.7, 7.7 and 4.8. PECOTA pegs Posey right around his numbers for last year, which I considered a bit of a down year for him. If he bounces back at all to somewhat near what he did in 2012, he will blow past these numbers. But again, for a catcher, this is a crap shoot at best. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">7</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a></strong> - .293/.343/.490  4.9 WARP: PECOTA is really expecting Safeco Field and the lack of protection in the lineup to mess with Cano. But let's look at it this way: In forty games played at that field, Cano has a .837 OPS, which is four points higher than this projection. All Cano has to do to blow away this projection is to do better on the road. Cano has batted over .300 in six of his last seven seasons including the last five in a row. His OBP has been 35 to 40 points higher than this for the last two seasons. And he has been over .500 slugging for five straight seasons. Yeah, Safeco will dampen him a bit, but come on. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">7</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adrian Gonzalez</a></strong> - .286/.366/.485  4.9 WARP: Perhaps I have to admit my bias here. I really can't stand Adrian Gonzalez. There is no rhyme or reason for my antipathy, but there is. Even so, this is overly optimistic. Gonzalez's fWAR figures the last two seasons were 3.3 and 2.8. That is hardly close to 4.9. PECOTA has him hitting 28 homers. Not a chance. Under. But I am biased.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">7</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> - .267/.345/.546  4.9 WARP: Every projection system expects Stanton to have a monster season. The average projection for him is 5 WAR and 35 homers or more PECOTA has him at 40 homers. There are two things that concern me. First, pitchers have <a data-mce-href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marlins-offense-hinders-giancarlo-stanton/" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marlins-offense-hinders-giancarlo-stanton/" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">stopped pitching</a> to him, second he strikes out too much and lastly, he cannot stay on the field for 150 games. I see only a chance for one of those three things to change. Under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">6</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> - .288/.354/.467   5.2 WARP: Are you kidding me? Over. Easily. The Angels are going to have a better year and that can only help Trout. Over. Over. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">5</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a></strong> - .298/.369/.524   5.4 WARP: One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to play 150 games or more. And if he does, these numbers will look puny. He is the best overall shortstop in the game, who unfortunately, cannot seem to get a full season in. I am going out on a limb here and saying that this is the year. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">3</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> - .313/.392/.560  5.7 WARP: Duh. Over. He will miss Prince Fielder, but the guy has murdered these numbers for years now.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">3</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a></strong> - .302/.364/.544  5.7 WARP: Would you really say Ryan Braun in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera? No, but he has put up these kinds of numbers regularly. But how will he react after last year's fiasco? What will it be like with all that pressure to show he is that good without the drugs? I think this is 50/50. But I'm going under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">2</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a></strong> - .299/.400/.531  5.9 WARP: The final OPS number is similar to what Votto put up last year. His on-base percentage was much higher, but his slugging was lower. I really don't understand the knock on him that Reds fans have of the guy. He is a great hitter. All that said, last year seemed like a down year for him when he did put the bat on the ball, though his BABIP was right in range with his career average. I don't know. The guy seems like a lock to get at least 5.9 WARP, but I am not real sold on the lineup around him. Under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">1</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> - .296/.382/.548  6.9 WARP: Surprise! I bet you wouldn't guess this in a million years. Not only does PECOTA project Pujols as the top WARP guy in baseball, but by a win! Wow. Pujols hasn't had a WAR this high since 2010. He is older. He is not the guy anymore. The guy now is Cabrera. Pujols isn't even the best player on his team. That would be Mike Trout. But...what if his struggles the last three years were because of his legs? What if that was fixed now and he has his base back under him. The guy was the superstar of superstars. He was better than Cabrera during his peak. What if, for one magical season, we see the Albert Pujols of old with a monster year? It could happen. Will it? I would not bet real money on it. But it is in the realm of possibility. Just ask the computer. Well...ask PECOTA's computer as no other projection system has him close to these numbers.</div>

The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing fact...

+ Read more »

The most accurate shortstop arms

<div style="text-align: justify;">When I was a kid, my brother and I made up this game called, "Ground ball to first." We would stand on opposite sides of the street about 70 to 90 feet apart and each half inning of a nine inning game consisted of us taking turns playing shortstop and first base. The first baseman was on "offense" and would throw grounders to the other. An out required a perfect field of the baseball and a perfect throw back to the first baseman. Errors were the only way to score. It was from that game that I have always appreciated the strong, accurate throw from the shortstop position.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I had the idea to go through the list of shortstops in the last fifty or so years who are on Baseball-reference.com's assist leaders. I also took a look at those with the top fielding percentages and zone ratings. Please note that I am not looking for the best fielding shortstops here. I am only looking for the most accurate arms. If you dig down enough for each player, you can find out how many of his total errors were throwing errors and then it is a simple case of dividing the throwing errors by throwing errors plus assists.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I know this is not perfect because some of the throws might have been relay throws and some benefited from year to year by who played first base and that first baseman's scooping ability (or height!). But I would assume all of that stuff evened out over the length of each player's career. I also know that I did not get everyone. I added to my list at least four times and am sure I missed a couple.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But the list became interesting as it is and gives a pretty good snapshot of what shortstop's arm was accurate or not. Here are my numbers from best to worst:</div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bowala01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Larry Bowa</a></strong> - .0022</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/conceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dave Concepcion</a></strong> - .0037</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belanma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Belanger</a></strong> - .0041</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/russebi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bill Russell</a></strong> - .0046</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dentbu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bucky Dent</a></strong> - .0048</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kessido01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Don Kessinger</a></strong> - .0053</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cardele01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Leo Cardenas</a></strong> - .0057</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/campabe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bert Campaneris</a></strong> - .00596</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yountro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robin Yount</a></strong> - ..00599</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrebu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bud Harrelson</a></strong> - .0067</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcmilro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Roy McMillan</a></strong> - .007105</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=ripkeca01,ripkeca99&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Cal Ripken</a></strong>, Jr. - .007108</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Omar Vizquel</a></strong> - .00711</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/speiech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Chris Speier</a></strong> - .007198</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithoz01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ozzie Smith</a></strong> - .007199</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trammal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alan Trammell</a></strong> - .0073</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/templga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Garry Templeton</a></strong> - .0075</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aparilu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Luis Aparicio</a></strong> - .008638</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchre01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Rey Sanchez</a></strong> - .008647</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fernato01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tony Fernandez</a></strong> - .0090</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolliji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jimmy Rollins</a></strong> - .0104</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brinked01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ed Brinkman</a></strong> - .0119</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guilloz01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ozzie Guillen</a></strong> - .0126</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=rodrial01,rodrig011ale&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a></strong> - .0134</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/claytro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Royce Clayton</a></strong> - .0144</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/larkiba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Barry Larkin</a></strong> - .0158</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tejadmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Miguel Tejada</a></strong> - .0164</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/renteed01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Edgar Renteria</a></strong> - .0167</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a></strong> - .0178</li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;">Larry Bowa was amazingly accurate and tops our list of modern shortstops with the most accurate arm. Eight of his sixteen full seasons at shortstop had zero throwing errors. Zero! And five others included only one throwing error. He made only 15 throwing errors his entire career. Eight of those were in the first two seasons he played. He went from 1974 to 1980 without a single throwing error. Amazing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Of course, throwing accurately is only part of a shortstop equation. B-R also tracks something called Percentage of fielded balls that turned into outs. Throwing is only a part of that equation. Release and simply catching the ball cleanly also play a part. During all seasons I looked at, 89 or 90% was the league average.</div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;">95% - Mark Belanger</li><li style="text-align: justify;">93% - Leo Cardinas, Rey Sanchez, Bud Harrelson, Roy McMillan</li><li style="text-align: justify;">92% - Larry Bowa, Bert Campaneris, Alan Trammell, Cal Ripken, Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Luis Aparicio, Bucky Dent, Robin Yount</li><li style="text-align: justify;">91% - Conception, Templeton, Speier, Jeter, Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, Brinkman, Guillen</li><li style="text-align: justify;">90% - Tejada, Russell, Rollins</li><li style="text-align: justify;">89% - Clayton, Renteria, Fernandez</li><li style="text-align: justify;">88% - Kessinger</li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;">So the old saw would apply that most of these long-time shortstops "made all the plays."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For 2013, the top five in throwing accuracy from shortstop were:</div><ol><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drewst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Stephen Drew</a></strong> - .0030</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/iglesjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Iglesias</a></strong> - .0057</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreas01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Asdrubal Cabrera</a></strong> - .0095</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peraljh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jhonny Peralta</a></strong> - .0101</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a></strong> - .0104</li></ol><div style="text-align: justify;">Please remember that I am not saying this makes the best shortstop. Good old Asdrubal points that out in this list. But it is interesting to see who has the most accurate arms from the shortstop position. Larry Bowa should be smiling at Stephen Drew.</div>

The most accurate shortstop arms

When I was a kid, my brother and I made up this game called, "Ground ball to first." We would stand on opposite sides of the stree...

+ Read more »

Troy Tulowitzki reclaims best shortstop title

<div style="text-align: justify;">The only thing that has kept <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a></strong> from acclaim as baseball's best shortstop has been his propensity to get injured. He only played 47 games in 2012. He won Silver Slugger Awards in 2010 and 2011 as the best hitter for his shortstop position despite missing forty games in 2010 and another 19 in 2011. Despite missing those 59 games in 2010 and 2011, he was still a 6 WAR player. If he can dodge this injury thing in 2013, he has a chance to be the National League MVP. He is that good.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">How good is Troy Tulowitzki when he is healthy? How about a career .373 wOBA? How about a career ISO of .212? His career triple slash line of .292/.364/.504 puts him among the best of the game, never mine his position.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He is a very patient hitter who also does not swing and miss very often. He has a 6.4% swing and miss rate for his career, but that figure has been under five for the past two seasons. He waits for a pitch he likes better than most too as his swing percentage is also among the lowest at 43.6%. He will walk between nine and ten percent of the time and only strikes out 15.7% for his career. He only struck out 9.4% of the time in his brief 2012.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His home runs per fly ball have always been in double digits for a percentage. The only flaws in his offensive game is that he hits as surprisingly high percentage of pop flies to the infield (13.4% for his career) and hits slightly more ground balls than fly balls. Well...and yeah, the injury thing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Combine Troy Tulowitzki's offensive prowess as a shortstop with his fielding and you get a superstar. Well...that is until you get to 2012 where he was rated slightly below average in the field. That was probably a one year blip because his defensive metrics have always been excellent. It seems certain that if Tulowitzki had been able to stay healthy for the full season, he would have pulled the defensive metrics back where they usually are.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Of course, Tulowitzki will always get a bit of stink eye because he plays his home games at Coors Field. And sure, his career OPS at home is nearly a hundred points higher than his road OPS. But his road OPS is still .812 and that is pretty darned good.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Despite the fact that it has seemed like Troy Tulowitzki has been around for a long time, He is heading only into his Age 28 season, so he is just reaching his prime as a player.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Because of his injury past, it seems that projections for 2013 are conservative for him. Here are some of them with the biggest ones on top:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Bill James - .298/.372/.522 with 28 homers</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Baseball Prospectus - .292/.370/.524 with 28 homers</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Steamer - .300/.374/.540 with 23 homers</li><li style="text-align: justify;">ZiPS - .294/.365/.535 with 23 homers</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Only Bill James and Baseball Prospectus expect him to get a full playing season in. The rest have him missing games and that is fair considering his history.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But if Tulowitzki plays 155 games, he will hit over .300, hit over 30 homers and will be an MVP candidate with his combination of batting, position and fielding skills. Those projections that predict WAR give him a range of 5.5 to 6 as a projection for 2013. If he stays healthy, I don't see why that can't be pushed up to seven or seven and a half.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most talented players in baseball. Unfortunately, injuries have robbed us of far too much of his playing time. It would be great if he can play 155 times this season. Well...if would be great unless you were an opposing pitcher. </div>

Troy Tulowitzki reclaims best shortstop title

The only thing that has kept Troy Tulowitzki from acclaim as baseball's best shortstop has been his propensity to get injured. He only...

+ Read more »