Some early batted ball anomalies

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A month of a baseball season is still a fairly small sample size. After all, we are only nearing the 15% mark of the season. There are a lot of games left to be played. Even so, 23 to 24 games played is a pretty good chunk of games to see a few trends taking place. Whether sample size or a meaningful chunk of games is up to the eye of the beholder. However, it does allow for some weird batted ball statistics. I have compiled a few for your viewing pleasure. Just don't make too much of what is being presented. Because it IS early yet.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thirty-six qualifying players have yet to hit an infield popup. I find that figure to be pretty amazing. You would think that not many popups would lead to a pretty good average for balls in play (BABIP). But that's not the case for <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freesda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freesda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Freese</a></strong>. Not only has he not hit a popup, but his line drive percentage is at a healthy 25%. Those are good batted ball odds. And yet his BABIP sits at .186. It is no wonder that the guy is hitting .143 after eighteen games.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But that is a little bit misleading. Freese is striking out at a 29.6% clip, so he only has 45 balls in play altogether. Even so...</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For another extreme, we look at <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=eatonad01,eatonad02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=eatonad01,eatonad02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adam Eaton</a></strong>. Eaton has brought some enthusiasm to the White Sox and that team seems far from the dead team they were last year. But Eaton's statistics are really weird. His line drive percentage of 11.1% is the fifth lowest in the Majors right now. And yet his BABIP is a healthy .313. That's kind of hard to do.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But it doesn't end there. Adam Eaton's batted ball statistics show that a full 74% of his batted balls are grounders. That gives him a ratio of ground ball to fly balls of 4 to 1. Holy cow, I have never seen those kinds of numbers put together in one batter.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lawribr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brett Lawrie</a></strong> of the Blue Jays is off to a slow start. He has a .151 average and a .538 OPS. Those are pretty bad numbers despite the five homers he has hit. His average makes sense because his BABIP is only .125, which is insanely low. Well...it is insanely low only if you don't see the details.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Brett Lawrie easily is last in the Majors at hitting line drives. His 8.8% line drive rate is so far off the Major League average (usually around 19.5%) that it almost seems silly. He is the only MLB player (qualified) that is under 10%. Needless to say that Mr. Lawrie is not squaring up many baseballs. Maybe he should use a fatter bat?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tejadru01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tejadru01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ruben Tejada</a></strong> of the Mets also has some mind-blowing batted ball stats. He leads the Major Leagues in line drive percentage. His rate so far in that category is almost staggering. 38.1% of his batted balls have been line drives. And he has a .688 BABIP when he hits a line drive. So why is his overall BABIP stuck at .285? That's weird isn't it?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">You don't know the half of it. Tejada has hit 16 line drives. He has also hit 16 ground balls and ten fly balls. Only one of his 26 combined ground balls and fly balls have fallen in for a hit. One! And it was on a grounder. That is amazing.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tejada, amazingly enough, is not alone. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Castellanos</a></strong> also has a similar problem. Castellanos is second in the Majors in line drive percentage at 37.7%. That's the good part. But his BABIP is only .280. Castellanos has hit 24 fly balls. Only two of them are hits and that is only because they went over the wall for homers. He only has one ground ball hit.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Royals' <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Alcides Escobar</a></strong> is off to a pretty good start this season and is batting .301. That is despite the fact that he leads all players in popping up to the infield. He has done so 27.8% of the time. And yet he has a healthy BABIP of .368. How does that happen? It happens when 80% of your line drives turn into hits (way over average) and 40% of your ground balls turn into hits (again, way over average). I don't think he can keep that up.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We have already seen a pretty amazing stat of Adam Eaton hitting four ground balls to every fly ball. But that is chicken feed compared to <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ben Revere</a></strong>. Revere's ratio is an astounding 7.83 ground balls for every fly ball. He has only hit eight fly balls all season. And yet, Revere's BABIP is sitting at .342. Being fast helps.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Okay, one more. There are only three players in the Majors who have a rate of 30% or higher of their fly balls going over the fence. You could probably guess that they would be <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mark Trumbo</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=abreujo02,abreu-007jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=abreujo02,abreu-007jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jose Abreu</a></strong>. The other commonality these three share is very low BABIPs. Abreu's is the highest at .258. Trumbo's was under .200 before he got hurt. And Pujols is sitting at .240. But who cares when so many of your fly balls are sailing majestically over the fence.</span></div>

Some early batted ball anomalies

A month of a baseball season is still a fairly small sample size. After all, we are only nearing the 15% mark of the season. There are a lot...

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The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing factors. I also fully understand that they are somewhat helpful to fantasy baseball players. But projections are not perfect and never have been.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I do not have a favorite projection system. I may like ZiPs a little more because I follow the guy on Twitter and he is personable. But they all have their place and some are more conservative than others.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' proprietary system and it tends to be conservative. I found their top fifteen position player projections very interesting. As such, I wanted to spend some time with these fifteen players and give you an over/under on whether PECOTA was too conservative or not. Too conservative is an over vote. Not conservative enough is an under vote. I will give you the player, the projected triple slash line, WAR(P) and then a justification of over or under. Here we go.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">15</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Evan Longoria</a></strong> - .261/.350/.480  4.3 WARP: This is very conservative, so over. I don't have too much of a problem with the triple slash line as they are near to what Longoria did last year. But I consider Longoria's season a year ago to be disappointing on the offensive side. I think he will be better. And his fielding puts him over six WAR easily.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">14</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joe Mauer</a></strong> - .315/.402/.456  4.4 WARP: These numbers are all under his career averages and he beat each of them last year. Playing first base will free him up physically and as <a data-mce-href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/02/ranking-joe-mauer-among-first-basemen.html" href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/02/ranking-joe-mauer-among-first-basemen.html" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">I wrote a few days ago</a>, I think that will lead to bigger offensive numbers and make up for his loss of positional value by moving to the dead zone of first base. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">13</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kempma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Kemp</a></strong> - .282/.344/.486  4.5 WARP: PECOTA must be still smoking whatever Kemp was having back in 2011. Of all the systems I have looked at, this is the most optimistic version of Matt Kemp of all of them. Unless proven otherwise, the 2011 Matt Kemp is gone for good in a haze of shoulder troubles. Under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">10</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> - .285/.393/.518  4.7 WARP: All the systems are conservative on Fielder, which is odd considering that he is moving from one of the toughest stadiums on hitters to one of the best. PECOTA is more optimistic than all the others for the big first baseman but still only projects him to hit 33 homers. Based on an albeit small sample size, I think he will hit 20 homers at home and 13 on the road should be a piece of cake. All Fielder has to do is get back to where he was in 2012 to beat this projection. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">10</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> - .278/.358/.465  4.7 WARP: This is probably the easiest one of the bunch. McCutchen has beaten these numbers in each of the last two seasons. Barring injury (knocking wood), he should breeze by these numbers. My only concern is if the Pirates fall back to a non-contention team. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">10</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a></strong> - .294/.367/.466  4.7 WARP: Projecting a catcher is always problematic because so much depends on dings and dents accumulated over the season. All you have to do is look at the wild swing of Posey's fWAR numbers over the last four seasons to see what I mean: 3.9, 1.7, 7.7 and 4.8. PECOTA pegs Posey right around his numbers for last year, which I considered a bit of a down year for him. If he bounces back at all to somewhat near what he did in 2012, he will blow past these numbers. But again, for a catcher, this is a crap shoot at best. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">7</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a></strong> - .293/.343/.490  4.9 WARP: PECOTA is really expecting Safeco Field and the lack of protection in the lineup to mess with Cano. But let's look at it this way: In forty games played at that field, Cano has a .837 OPS, which is four points higher than this projection. All Cano has to do to blow away this projection is to do better on the road. Cano has batted over .300 in six of his last seven seasons including the last five in a row. His OBP has been 35 to 40 points higher than this for the last two seasons. And he has been over .500 slugging for five straight seasons. Yeah, Safeco will dampen him a bit, but come on. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">7</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adrian Gonzalez</a></strong> - .286/.366/.485  4.9 WARP: Perhaps I have to admit my bias here. I really can't stand Adrian Gonzalez. There is no rhyme or reason for my antipathy, but there is. Even so, this is overly optimistic. Gonzalez's fWAR figures the last two seasons were 3.3 and 2.8. That is hardly close to 4.9. PECOTA has him hitting 28 homers. Not a chance. Under. But I am biased.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">7</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> - .267/.345/.546  4.9 WARP: Every projection system expects Stanton to have a monster season. The average projection for him is 5 WAR and 35 homers or more PECOTA has him at 40 homers. There are two things that concern me. First, pitchers have <a data-mce-href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marlins-offense-hinders-giancarlo-stanton/" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/marlins-offense-hinders-giancarlo-stanton/" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">stopped pitching</a> to him, second he strikes out too much and lastly, he cannot stay on the field for 150 games. I see only a chance for one of those three things to change. Under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">6</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> - .288/.354/.467   5.2 WARP: Are you kidding me? Over. Easily. The Angels are going to have a better year and that can only help Trout. Over. Over. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">5</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tulowtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki</a></strong> - .298/.369/.524   5.4 WARP: One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to play 150 games or more. And if he does, these numbers will look puny. He is the best overall shortstop in the game, who unfortunately, cannot seem to get a full season in. I am going out on a limb here and saying that this is the year. Over.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">3</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> - .313/.392/.560  5.7 WARP: Duh. Over. He will miss Prince Fielder, but the guy has murdered these numbers for years now.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">3</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Braun</a></strong> - .302/.364/.544  5.7 WARP: Would you really say Ryan Braun in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera? No, but he has put up these kinds of numbers regularly. But how will he react after last year's fiasco? What will it be like with all that pressure to show he is that good without the drugs? I think this is 50/50. But I'm going under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">2</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Joey Votto</a></strong> - .299/.400/.531  5.9 WARP: The final OPS number is similar to what Votto put up last year. His on-base percentage was much higher, but his slugging was lower. I really don't understand the knock on him that Reds fans have of the guy. He is a great hitter. All that said, last year seemed like a down year for him when he did put the bat on the ball, though his BABIP was right in range with his career average. I don't know. The guy seems like a lock to get at least 5.9 WARP, but I am not real sold on the lineup around him. Under.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">1</strong> - <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> - .296/.382/.548  6.9 WARP: Surprise! I bet you wouldn't guess this in a million years. Not only does PECOTA project Pujols as the top WARP guy in baseball, but by a win! Wow. Pujols hasn't had a WAR this high since 2010. He is older. He is not the guy anymore. The guy now is Cabrera. Pujols isn't even the best player on his team. That would be Mike Trout. But...what if his struggles the last three years were because of his legs? What if that was fixed now and he has his base back under him. The guy was the superstar of superstars. He was better than Cabrera during his peak. What if, for one magical season, we see the Albert Pujols of old with a monster year? It could happen. Will it? I would not bet real money on it. But it is in the realm of possibility. Just ask the computer. Well...ask PECOTA's computer as no other projection system has him close to these numbers.</div>

The over/under of PECOTA's top 15 players

I love projections. I fully understand that they are simply computer-generated predictors based on past performance and current playing fact...

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Can Hamilton and Pujols bounce back?

<div style="text-align: justify;">When <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a></strong> signed his mega-deal with the Seattle Mariners, the two names that came up most often in stories and comparisons were <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Hamilton</a></strong>. The two recent free agent sweepstakes winners were used as the counterweight of what can go wrong with signing long-term deals to players past their primes. Instead of "Remember the Maine" being used as a battle cry, we heard, "Remember Pujols and Hamilton." Forget the money for a moment. The two Angel players are going to get paid insane amounts of money. There is nothing to be done about that fact. But can they come back in 2014 and contribute?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's start with Josh Hamilton. Unlike Pujols, Hamilton appeared to be healthy in 2013. He played in 151 games, which, when it comes to Hamilton's past injury history, you would have taken gladly. But he did not produce and became all but forgotten in the grand scheme of things. His wOBA of .319 (OPS+ of 108) was the lowest of his career. His 21 homers were half of his 2012 season. His lack of luster in play led him to become, along with Pujols, the symbol of all that had gone wrong for the Angels.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So what went wrong? For one, he did not enjoy success hitting at home. After successful years hitting at Rangers Ballpark and putting up a career .964 OPS there, Hamilton could only muster a triple slash line at Angel Stadium of .236/.289/.401. That paltry .690 OPS at home compares pretty snugly to the career .717 OPS for his career in that ballpark. Sometimes you have to wonder if agents and players think about ballparks when considering offers. It is clear that Angel Stadium is not conducive to Hamilton's success.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hamilton hit much better on the road. And while his .787 road OPS is much better, it is still below his standards. So what else went wrong then?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One key statistic is his pitch value against the fastball. In his two great years in Texas, his fastball pitch values were over 30 runs per season. In his lesser years there, his values against the fastball were still fearsome at 19.0 and 18.4 runs above average in 2011 and 2012. That plummeted to only 5.7 runs above average in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While he used to kill fastballs, Hamilton held his own against other pitch types. But in 2013, the slider killed him. While never previously finishing below -2.4 runs against that pitch and often scoring above average in most other years, Hamilton had a pitch value against the slider of -12.7 runs. Wow!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Word gets around on such things and pitchers exploited Hamilton with the slider. He saw the pitch 19.5% in 2013, the highest of his career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The real thing most people talk about when it comes to Hamilton is his free-swinging ways. Much has been made about his O-swing rate or the rate Hamilton swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Fangraphs.com rates Hamilton's increase in doing so way more than PitchF/X does, which makes you wonder which one is more accurate.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you believe Fangraphs, then his O-swing rate the last three years has gone through the roof. But if you believe PitchF/X, then he had a one-year blip in 2012 and his rate in 2013 was near his career norms.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whichever is correct, there is no denying that Hamilton has no plate discipline. When a 30% O-swing rate or lower is the ideal, then Hamilton's PitchF/X career average of 39% is not good and never has been. But Hamilton produced despite that fact until 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So is he done then as a productive player? I have a hard time making that pronouncement. If you look at his career, he has always had swings in his years. 2009 was otherworldly and then 2010 was not. In fairness, there was some injury problems there.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is a little hope in that his second half of 2013 was much better than his first half. And he finished real strong in September, though it is troubling that his homer total fell off in the second half. Hamilton's batting average and on-base percentage improved dramatically in the second half, but his first half contained more power.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While there is hope that Hamilton bounces back in 2014, I don't expect it. Half of his games are in a ballpark where he has never seemed comfortable at the plate. Unless he can adjust to the slider pitchers are feeding him and get his groove back against fastballs, then Hamilton becomes an .800 OPS guy, which simply is not enough to help the Angels where they need to go.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So far the projections match my feelings that Albert Pujols will bounce back some in 2014. You have to assume that 2013's results were totally from injuries suffered to Albert's wheels. He tried to play and could barely walk, never mind run and still hit 17 homers in 99 games.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And yes, 2013 finished a three year arc of decline for Pujols that has seen his OPS fall from consistently over one to .906 his last year in St. Louis to .859 in 2012 and then .767 in 2013. I still believe much of 2012 and 2013's problems were health related but time will tell.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">All I know is that for Albert Pujols' first ten years, he was right up there with the greats of all time. At the age of 33, he only needs eight more homers for 500. In only 13 years, he has compiled over 2,300 hits and over a thousand extra base hits. Does a guy like that just fall into sheep dip? Maybe. Maybe not.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Like Hamilton, Pujols has fallen off against the fastball. He killed them in the past and fell off in his last year at St. Louis to half his previous value against fastballs and then that was cut in half again in 2013. Pujols never had negative values against any pitch type in his first ten years but was in the negative on three different pitch types in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Steamer and Oliver both project Pujols to bounce back somewhat in 2014. Though that bounce back will not get him back to where he was in his first ten years, it is still a projection that is optimistic that he will have some impact for the Angels.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Personally, I don't think Pujols is done as a player and I expect one or two more big seasons from him. I do believe his health has not been optimal since 2011. If he can come back feeling good in 2014, then people may be surprised by what he does. Heck, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/killeha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Harmon Killebrew</a></strong> had an MVP season at the age of 33 after a down season plagued by injury. That slugger followed his MVP season with another great one at the age of 34.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For the Angels, you know that (if he stays healthy) <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> is going to Mike Trout. But if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols can recapture some of their past glory and give the phenom some support, 2014 might be a far better scene for the Angels than 2013 was. </div>

Can Hamilton and Pujols bounce back?

When Robinson Cano signed his mega-deal with the Seattle Mariners, the two names that came up most often in stories and comparisons were A...

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MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 21, 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">After picking to the tune of 22-10 over the past two months, I was hoping that I was over my long picking slump. That hope was misguided. Yesterday's picks limped into a 6-6 record and back to mediocrity. It was a screwy night. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Felix Hernandez</a></strong> had an 8-2 lead over the Angels. That was safe right? Wrong. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/niesejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jonathon Niese</a></strong> had to leave the game early after experiencing pain in his shoulder. The Braves went scoreless in five and two-thirds innings against Mets' relievers. The Marlins scored only two runs against the Giants. But that was enough as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/koehlto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tom Koehler</a></strong> won his first game. The Brewers blew a save (go figure) and lost to the Astros in extras. It was <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvarpe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Pedro Alvarez</a></strong> <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_06_20_pitmlb_cinmlb_1&mode=video" target="_blank">five</a>, the Reds three. So yeah, it was a tough night.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Friday's picks:</div><br /><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Cubs </b>over the Astros:</u> <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garzama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Garza</a></strong> continues to audition for his pending trade and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keuchda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dallas Keuchel</a></strong> gives up a few too many.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Nationals </b>over the Rockies:</u> <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg</a></strong> needs to calm down some of the naysayers with a big game. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chatwty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tyler Chatwood</a></strong> has a good record and ERA, but I cannot imagine he will go the whole season without giving up a homer.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Twins over the <b>Indians</b>:</u> My boss is from Minnesota and loves the Twins, so I have to keep picking them. No, seriously, they are playing good baseball. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dedunsa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Sam Deduno</a></strong> has helped. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kazmisc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Scott Kazmir</a></strong> can still miss bats, but cannot hang around long enough.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Yankees </b>over the Bay Rays:</u> The Yankees actually have a chance in this one. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phelpda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">David Phelps</a></strong> is better than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong>. And <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernara02,hernara01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ramon Hernandez</a></strong> gives the putrid Yankees' lineup a chance as long as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Vernon Wells</a></strong> finally sits. I hope <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/almonzo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Zoilo Almonte</a></strong> starts in the outfield.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Orioles over the <b>Blue Jays</b>:</u> This one could blow up quickly and all depends on which pitcher, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hammeja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason Hammel</a></strong> or <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">R.A. Dickey</a></strong>, gives up the least amount of home runs.The Blue Jays winning streak is on the line.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Tigers </b>over the Red Sox:</u> This one seems even as both <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jon Lester</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fistedo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Doug Fister</a></strong>'s last names even rhyme. There is no rhyme or reason to this pick. Either team could win. Both have no closers. It should be fun.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Braves over the <b>Brewers</b>:</u> <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Julio Teheran</a></strong> is really throwing the ball well these days. It is nice to see him settle down and start reaching his promise. The Braves' lineup is so spotty and inconsistent though. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peralwi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wily Peralta</a></strong> will have either a great day or a bad day depending on which Braves show up.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Royals </b>over the White Sox:</u> Is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/venturo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robin Ventura</a></strong> still glad he took this job? I do not think so. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guthrje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeremy Guthrie</a></strong> should have a good day and win this one. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santihe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hector Santiago</a></strong> is one of those nondescript pitchers who wins every once in a while just to keep his job.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Rangers over the <b>Cardinals</b>:</u> Wow. This is a cool series. The Rangers lose a bat in the lineup. The only games the Cardinals have lost in the past couple of weeks have been started by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lyonsty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tyler Lyons</a></strong>, so that is the pick. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollade01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Derek Holland</a></strong> will have to have a good day though. Remember that World Series?</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Reds over the <b>Diamondbacks</b>:</u> The Reds are the better team and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Johnny Cueto</a></strong> is a better pitcher than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wade Miley</a></strong>. But as we all know, since when does logic matter in baseball?</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Angels </b>over the Pirates:</u> This is a tough call and a tough series to predict. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a></strong> has been great for the Pirates. But the Angels have gotten hot as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> has started to hit. I am going with the Angels at home.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Dodgers over the <b>Padres</b>:</u> The only place that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richacl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clayton Richard</a></strong> pitches well is at home. And that is where he is. But how can any picker ever pick against <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong>? Kershaw does not always win. But he has the ability to win every game he pitches.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Athletics over the <b>Mariners</b>:</u> <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/iwakuhi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hisashi Iwakuma</a></strong> was a lock earlier in the season, but has not won in a while. The A's are the better team and cannot seem to lose when <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bartolo Colon</a></strong> pitches. So that is the pick. I hate picking against Iwakuma though...</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Giants </b>over the Marlins:</u> I am torn on this one. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/linceti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tim Lincecum</a></strong> is far from a lock pitching any game. I could see a homer by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> in this one. And <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ricky Nolasco</a></strong> could have a good game. But, gee, it is hard to pick the Marlins to win, though they have been more regularly. Ugh.</li></ul><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">And the Game of the Day!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><ul><li><u>The <b>Phillies </b>over the Mets:</u> The pitching line in this one is a combined 3-16. Yikes! So, how do you pick a game like that? Well, one of them is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamelco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Cole Hamels</a></strong> and the other is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hefneje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeremy Hefner</a></strong>. Which one makes sense to you?</li></ul><br /><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 6-6</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Week: 42-29</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Month: 142-132</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 605-481</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Games of the Day: 46-33</div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

MLB Game Picks - Friday: June 21, 2013

After picking to the tune of 22-10 over the past two months, I was hoping that I was over my long picking slump. That hope was misguided. Ye...

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When Albert Pujols was better than Miguel Cabrera

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> is the best hitter in baseball. Pretty much everyone agrees with that assessment. Oh, you might get a few Votto votes, but Cabrera has pretty much dominated the offensive world for the past three seasons. It was not long ago when that title belonged to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong>. The run Pujols put together in his first ten seasons rivaled any player that has ever played the game. It seems strange to say that now, doesn't it? Since his last season in St. Louis to his first two years for the Angels, Pujols seems a cut above ordinary. But even the great Miguel Cabrera could not match Pujols at his best.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you put their first ten years side by side, Pujols comes out on top in just about every category. Pujols had 98 more hits, 40 more doubles, 86 more homers, 205 more walks, 107 more runs driven in and over 200 more runs scored. In some bit of fairness, Pujols had 308 more plate appearances. But even then, there would have been no way for Cabrera to catch up to those numbers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is not knocking what Cabrera has done after his first ten years. This exercise is just to show how good Albert Pujols really was. Perhaps you might also argue that Cabrera had all those years with the lowly Marlins to depress his totals. Fair enough. Then just take Cabrera as a Tiger and compare it to Pujols' Cardinal years and he still cannot match what Pujols did.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For example, Cabrera has an amazing 161 OPS+ during his six years with the Tigers. Pujols was at 170 for his ten years with the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .404 on-base percentage with the Tigers. Pujols was at .420 for the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .585 slugging percentage with the Tigers. Pujols slugged .617 with the Cardinals. Heck, Pujols even stole more than 40 bases more than Cabrera in their first ten years as ballplayers in the majors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">About the only thing you can give Cabrera when comparing the two players through their first ten seasons is that he hit into nine less double plays.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The big question for the future is whether Cabrera can keep up the pace of his hitting longer than Pujols did. Since joining the Angels in his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons, Pujols has hit at an .825 OPS pace. That is so far below his career average that it seems like a totally different player. If you look at both players from their Age 27 seasons to their Age 30 seasons, they are too close to call.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Can Cabrera keep up the pace better than Pujols has? Or will he too decline dramatically a couple of seasons from now when he too hits his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The one thing that gives Cabrera fans hope that he can maintain his peak longer than Pujols is that his trend is totally different. Take a look at their two wOBA charts from Fangraphs.com:</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR-6X7s5mgqJdELhQVPMa5VJPhTTZYbhasYrkgAhpglgNlCrTODgtvR9_Ue-ONTAyZIpWXoVZuF3ZhDzlg5biM8Eg0xZGcEtlyT06r_QAECi3cVwN8I2JlSgAZdAKLGjLU-ogDw5AHQAo/s1600/Pujols+woba+graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR-6X7s5mgqJdELhQVPMa5VJPhTTZYbhasYrkgAhpglgNlCrTODgtvR9_Ue-ONTAyZIpWXoVZuF3ZhDzlg5biM8Eg0xZGcEtlyT06r_QAECi3cVwN8I2JlSgAZdAKLGjLU-ogDw5AHQAo/s400/Pujols+woba+graph.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6qCkUrATnV8m_tCRnliFBp-ycbZo9kqZYiXvQJ2VWHqO_c_Eyc4VH6g5dBZKXTJvO5VcGarPfv1hskC6Rx74F5hPNmsNJrolLSHoO6fhaw_qug-_KARhSNgqDK9KnYlBtGSyVu1i9q2U/s1600/Cabrera+woba+graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6qCkUrATnV8m_tCRnliFBp-ycbZo9kqZYiXvQJ2VWHqO_c_Eyc4VH6g5dBZKXTJvO5VcGarPfv1hskC6Rx74F5hPNmsNJrolLSHoO6fhaw_qug-_KARhSNgqDK9KnYlBtGSyVu1i9q2U/s400/Cabrera+woba+graph.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The top chart shows not only that Pujols had an amazing peak and hovered around the .400 wOBA mark for years, but also that there has been a sharp decline for four years now. On the bottom graph, or Cabrera's, the trend is up, up and away. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">That is not to say that Cabrera will not start to slow down as he goes past thirty like Pujols has. They have similar body types despite Pujols being more of a workout guy with less body fat. Let's just say that Cabrera is trending better and has a chance to stay better.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">While it is true that Albert Pujols has been a disappointment since joining the Angels, especially for that contract he signed, the other truth is that this generation of baseball fans has had a chance to see two of the really special careers in the history of baseball. Someday we will look back and reflect on both careers and say, "Man, they were awesome offensive players."</div>

When Albert Pujols was better than Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball. Pretty much everyone agrees with that assessment. Oh, you might get a few Votto votes, but ...

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