The Flagrant Fan Blogs: Yadier Molina

Cardinals making the most of their base runners

<div style="text-align: justify;">After watching the Yankees most of the season (nearly every game), it was eye-opening watching the St. Louis Cardinals dismantle the Reds yesterday in the Reds' backyard. And what had me drooling with envy was the approach the Cardinals had with runners on base. As I <a href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2013/06/03/the-team-that-pulls-together/" target="_blank">have written this week</a> for <i>It's About the Money, Stupid</i>, the Yankees are so pull happy that they often fail with runners on base and in scoring position because pitchers can take advantage of that proclivity. But not the Cardinals. They are more than happy to take that outside pitch up the middle or to the opposite field, particularly their right-hand hitting bats. The numbers are pretty astounding.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Obviously, the Cardinals are really doing everything well except for their relief pitching. The starting rotation has been fabulous with a bunch of <a href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2013/06/cardinals-home-grown-pitchers-are.html" target="_blank">home grown talent</a> supporting <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam  Wainwright</a></strong>. As a team, the Cardinals have the best ERA in the National League, give up the fewest homers and give up the second fewest amount of walks. As scary for the rest of the league as that is, the Cardinals also have the best batting average and on-base percentage in the National League. If you are the best pitching staff and the best offense, you are going to win some games. It is no secret why they are the first Major League team to forty victories.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But their offense has some secrets that are pretty amazing to discover. For example: As a team, the Cardinals have a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .381 with runners on base. The league average is .303. With runners in scoring position, the Cardinals have a BABIP of .401 compared to the league average of .300. That is pretty astounding. While that kind of pace would seem to be impossible to maintain, there is a reason the Cardinals are so successful--they hit the ball up the middle and the other way.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While the Cardinals do lead the NL in batting average and on-base percentage, the numbers are not that staggering. Other teams in history have hit much higher. And their slugging percentage is only five points higher than the league average. What makes them special right now is that when runners are on base, they make the most of those opportunities.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here are some numbers to back up what I am talking about. In all of baseball, when batters hit line drives good things happen. In the majors as a whole, when the batter hits a line drive, a run will score at least 23.9 percent of the time as a result of that batted ball. With the Cardinals, that number jumps to 25.6 percent of the time. And that is just the tip of the iceberg.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">When all batters in baseball hit the ball to the opposite field, the percentage of runs batted in per batted ball is 13.4 percent. With the Cardinals, opposite field batted balls result in runs batted in 16.6 percent of the time.  That is impressive.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Some of this shows up in their ground ball stats. While the Cardinals OPS on ground balls is 26 points higher than the entire Major League average (.520 versus .494), the ground balls score more runs for the Cardinals than the rest of the league. When the league hits a ground ball, those lead to runs batted in only 6.7 percent of the time. When the Cardinals hit ground balls, those lead to runs batted in 9.8 percent of the time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While some of this is accounted for by having more runners on base than anyone else (highest OBP, right?), a good part of it is the willingness and ability to hit the ball where it is pitched. And this is almost strictly a right-handed batting phenomenon for the Cardinals.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cardinals' left-handed batters actually pull the ball more than league average and have a lower percentage of batted balls up the middle and opposite field than the rest of baseball. But the right-handed bats more than make up for it.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The league average (and when I say, "League" here, I mean all of baseball) for the percentage of pulled batted balls by right-handed batters is 26.7 percent. The Cardinals' right-handed batters pull the ball only 23.8 percent of the time. The MLB average for right-handed bats going up the middle is 55.8 percent. The Cardinals' right-handed bats go up the middle 57.3 percent of the time leaving their percentage of pulling the ball 1.6 percentage points lower than the league average.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It is this ability to be dynamic and use all fields that allows the Cardinals to develop rallies and keep them going.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/craigal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Allen  Craig</a></strong>, the Cardinals' most prolific RBI guy leads the way. He hits the ball to the opposite field 24.8 percent of the time. That beats the league average by 7.5 percentage points. He is batting .381 with men on base and a .412 batting average with men in scoring position. And 29 of his 43 runs batted in have been either up the middle or to the opposite field.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt  Holliday</a></strong> has hit 32.4 percent of his batted balls to the opposite field! That almost doubles the league average. As a result, 24 of his 33 runs batted in have been up the middle or to the opposite field. He is batting .354 with men on base and .346 with runners in scoring position.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Yadier  Molina</a></strong> came up as a great fielding and throwing catcher. He has become a great hitter by going the other way. Of his batted balls, 30.7 percent of them go to the opposite field and 22 of his 30 runs batted in have gone up the middle or to the opposite field. He is hitting .410 with runners on base and .377 with men in scoring position.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Among their star hitters, only <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Carlos  Beltran</a></strong> is a pull hitter, especially from the right side of the plate. But he is their legitimate home run threat and is batting an incredible .478 with runners in scoring position.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The thing about this approach at the plate is that it is more slump proof than a pull-happy approach. Pitchers have to be honest and cannot simply live on the outside part of the plate with the Cardinals. I do not know how the Cardinals will hold up as the season progresses. But as of right now, they have the most versatile and resilient offense in baseball. </div>

Cardinals making the most of their base runners

After watching the Yankees most of the season (nearly every game), it was eye-opening watching the St. Louis Cardinals dismantle the Reds ye...

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Crowded field for National League MVP

<div style="text-align: justify;">    The Most Valuable Player Award is one of the most confusing awards in baseball. The Cy Young Award is easy: Who was the best pitcher in the league? But the MVP is difficult because nobody can agree on who should be considered. The problem comes from the word, "Valuable," stuck in the middle of the award's name. Value based on what? Based on WAR? Based on runs batted in or homers? Does the value have to be to a contending team for it to count? After all, to paraphrase an old general manager, a team finished in last place with a valuable player, it can finish in last place without him. If the award was called the Player of the Year, it would be easier. But it isn't. 2012 gives us a crowded field of MVP contenders, so these questions all come into play.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So who are the contenders? Well, there is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Buster  Posey</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David  Wright</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yadier  Molina</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=braunry02,braunry01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan  Braun</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andrew  McCutchen</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/headlch01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chase  Headley</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bournmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Michael  Bourn</a></strong> and perhaps <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jason  Heyward</a></strong>. That is a lot of contenders for the award. And on both stats sites, Fangraphs.com and Baseball-reference.com, several of them are bunched up in those site's WAR valuations. Last year was a little easier as the two contenders were Braun and Matt Kemp. McCutchen was in the conversation too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">How did that race break down since the play of the two players were similar. One led one site in WAR and the other led the competing stat site in WAR. It appears that Braun won because his team was a contender and the Dodgers were not. And personally, that seems fair. The Dodgers were never a factor in any race, whether it be the wild card or the division race. That would have been the case with or without Kemp.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The one problem with this way of thinking is putting so much value upon a player for a team's contending success. A contending team needs so many things to happen in order to contend. It sounds simple to simply say they have to score more runs than they allow on a regular basis. But so much is involved in that equation. The schedule, injuries, the pitching, the defense, "clutch" hitting and to a small degree, the manager and coaching. Even if a player has a monster year, giving him too much credit for that contending team is questionable. If a great player cannot elevate a terrible team, how much does a great player then elevate a good team? Do you see how that is not a correlation and there is a logic conundrum there?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the course of writing these thoughts out, the feeling that the award has to go to a contending team's player is not in personal jeopardy. The award is not called, the "Most Valuable Player to his Contending Team" Award. In fact, the thinking is now almost reversed itself. Should the award go to a player that brings the most value to his team? That would simply bring the award to the guy with the highest WAR. The trouble with doing that is that the two sites listed rarely agree. Verlander was much more highly rated last year on one site over the other. Gosh this is confusing, especially in light of so many contenders for the award. Fortunately, there are no pitchers close in the NL to the position player's WAR totals, so we can save the debate on whether pitchers should win for another day.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is another problem to which player is the most valuable to his team concept. When great players dominate bad teams, those bad teams are not going to have much for total team WAR. For example, Mets' batters have accounted for the grand total of 11.5 rWAR. With David  Wright's total of 6.4 rWAR, he accounts for 57.1% of his team's WAR. A couple of years ago, the Pirates finished with a negative WAR for the team and McCutchen was at like six by himself. The math on that boggles the mind. This season, the Pirates are a contending team and McCutchen accounts for 46.8% of his team's total batting WAR.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Oh man, we are not getting anywhere are we? This much can be said, rightly or no, public opinion believes that Ryan  Braun got away with a technicality on this PED thing. In other words, most people think he was guilty but got off on a forensic snafu. No matter how he fares this season and how much he elevates the Brewers in their last ditch effort to sneak into the wild card mix, he will probably not get the vote this season after winning it last year under what many feel was false pretenses. That is not the personal opinion here. It just states the obvious.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">With all the messiness already involved here, the only thing left to do is to assign the award to the player of the year. Who was the best player? One equation this writer would take out would be the part that fielding plays in current WAR evaluations. Fielding metrics are not universally loved and trusted. At least they are not yet. And again, the way the fielding metrics are measured varies from stat site to stat site. So that has to be factored in to some of the valuation methods.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For example, a lot of Michael  Bourn's worth is tied up in his fielding. Of his 6.1 fWAR, perhaps as high as two of those wins come as a result of his fielding metrics. Until we can pin this fielding thing more closely to where most people agree they are the bomb, they should not be included in the MVP discussion.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">After boiling all this down, the top contenders for this observer are Andrew  McCutchen, Ryan  Braun and Buster  Posey. Not only are all three at the top of the WAR leaderboards, but all three are the only NL players above .400 in wOBA and above 160 in wRC+. If the season ended today, the pick would be Ryan  Braun.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

Crowded field for National League MVP

The Most Valuable Player Award is one of the most confusing awards in baseball. The Cy Young Award is easy: Who was the best pitcher in ...

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