Chris Johnson and swing batter batter

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Remember in Little League or PAL (like I played) where the players on the field would chant, "Swing Batter Batter," before each pitch? Apparently, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso013chr,johnso011chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso013chr,johnso011chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Johnson</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> of the Atlanta Braves is still hearing those chants in his head. Of course, Johnson has had multiple occurrences of blowing up with his temper, so who knows what else is going on in his head. But the bottom line is that Johnson does not walk very much.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Johnson has never walked much, even going back to his minor league days. But last year he broke out and batted .321 and his 5.3% walk rate at least pushed him up to a good .358 on-base percentage. And he finished with a 127 wRC+ to cap off a good season that was somewhat of a surprise.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Braves rewarded his season by giving him a $23.5 million, three-year extension that covers 2015-2017 with an option year after that. The good news is that he followed his good season by batting .281 so far this season. But that is as far as the good news goes. His on-base percentage is .299. That's right, .299.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The problem is that Chris Johnson has tumbled from an already low 5.3 walk percentage last year to a staggeringly low 2.2%. A walk percentage that low is pretty hard to accomplish. How hard? Let me show you.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After 81 games, or exactly half the season, Chris Johnson has seven walks in 325 plate appearances. As is easy to do math-wise, Johnson's pace is to finish with fourteen walks. In the last ten years, only five times has a batter finished with more than 500 plate appearances with less than fifteen walks in a season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">To go one step further, in the last ten seasons, no one with more than 600 plate appearances (a pace Johnson is on) has finished with less than 16 walks. So Johnson's pace would be somewhat historic--at least for the last ten years anyway.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The last time a batter finished with 600 plate appearances and less than fifteen walks was <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cruzde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cruzde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Deivi Cruz</a></strong> in the year 2000. So this is definitely something to keep an eye on for the rest of the season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Right about now, that extension the Braves gave Chris Johnson isn't looking very good. Fangraphs has his season at 0.1 fWAR and baseball-reference.com has him even worse at -1.0 rWAR. That will hardly justify anything over league minimum money.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So what has led to Johnson's plunge in walk rates? As you might expect, a lot of it is found in his O-Rate or the amount of times he swings at a pitch outside the strike zone. His rate is the highest of his career at 44.1%. His overall swing rate of 57.6% is also the highest of his career. His O-rate is the second highest in baseball and his overall swing rate is third highest.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Add to those numbers the fact that his contact percentage and swing and miss percentage are the second highest of his career, the highest they have been since his second season in 2010. His first pitch strike percentage is also quite high at over 61%.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">To add to Johnson's woes, his slugging is way off too. His slugging percentage is 96 points below last year and his overall OPS is 156 points lower! His 84 wRC+ completes the picture of inadequacy he has going on this season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is quite possible that Chris Johnson will improve in the second half. The Braves and the team's fans can only hope such will be the case. A .281 batting average that only adds up to a .299 on-base percentage is a bit embarrassing--especially in this day and age where getting on base is a key criteria.</span></div>

Chris Johnson and swing batter batter

Remember in Little League or PAL (like I played) where the players on the field would chant, "Swing Batter Batter," before each pi...

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Are the Braves good or what?

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Atlanta Braves are a weird team. Last night's game against the Marlins showed it all too. The Braves pitched brilliantly, but could not hit and struck out fifteen times. The Braves have pitched brilliantly all season--good enough to build a terrific 13-7 record. But the offense is so hit or miss that one wonders how far the team can go. Are the Braves good or what?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The projection systems are not kind to the Braves. PECOTA still thinks the Braves will only go 71-71 the rest of the season and give the Nationals the NL East crown. But that was supposed to happen last year too and did not. Will the Braves' pitching stay this good? And will the offense get more consistent?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The pitching was supposed to be a problem. They lost <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/minormi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/minormi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Minor</a></strong>. They lost <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/medlekr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/medlekr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Kris Medlen</a></strong>. They lost <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beachbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beachbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #ff4b33; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brandon Beachy</a></strong>. That was supposed to sink the team. But the rotation has been fabulous.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ervin Santana</a></strong> has terrific and sports an 0.86 ERA. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haranaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haranaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Aaron Harang</a></strong>'s ERA is at 0.70. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Julio Teheran</a></strong> is at 1.80. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Alex Wood</a></strong> is at 1.50 and even <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haleda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haleda02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Hale</a></strong> is holding his own at 2.93. And that starting pitching has been aided greatly by a rangy defense which is itself a bit of an up and down.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Braves get to more balls than anyone else, but they have the second lowest fielding percentage in baseball too. But since the former is so much more important than the latter, it works. And it can only help the pitchers. In fact, the pitching staff has only a .275 BABIP against.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The BABIP figure is one that makes you wonder about how good the pitching will remain. If the BABIP normalizes somewhat, then their current success cannot sustain. The same can be said for the team's strand rate. That strand rate is currently at 79.5, the second highest in baseball. Can that be sustained? One statistic that is not luck dependent is keeping the ball in the ballpark. The Braves are doing really well there.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Braves have had the best bullpen for years. But that bullpen is a bit in flux right now. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Craig Kimbrel</a></strong> has been dealing with soreness and Braves' fans are holding their collective breaths. He is still striking out batters like some super-human. But he has given up three earned runs in his last two outings.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The rest of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess, frankly. Bullpens are the easiest things to fix, however, so that is not a big worry. Kimbrel has to remain healthy for the Braves bullpen mystique to continue.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Then there is the offense. The Braves have four starters with a wOBA of less than .300. They are second in baseball in strikeout percentage and only 21st in walk percentage. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Justin Upton</a></strong>, one player who has an excellent wOBA, has struck out 35.9% of the time. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso011chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=johnsch05,johnso011chr&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Johnson</a></strong> has walked only once all season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Dan Uggla</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">B.J. Upton</a></strong> are both struggling at the plate again this season. Both have really high strikeout rates and really low on-base percentages. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a></strong> has struggled. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gattiev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gattiev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Evan Gattis</a></strong> has struggled up until recently and his backup at catcher, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lairdge01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lairdge01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Gerald Laird</a></strong>, hasn't hit at all.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And yet the team if fifth in baseball in home runs. You just have to wonder what kind of offense this is going to be and how it will all play out. You just have to go back to last year and remember how the team's defense and pitching bailed out its spotty offense and took them to the post season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Then again, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freemfr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Freddie Freeman</a></strong> is a star and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a></strong>' offense is starting to catch up to his defense.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Atlanta Braves were not supposed to win the division last year. But they did. They were not supposed to be on top of the division this year. But there they are. Somehow, the team gets it done. You just have to wonder sometimes if it will all crash and burn somehow. The post asks if the Braves are good or what. After writing it, I still have no idea.</span></div>

Are the Braves good or what?

The Atlanta Braves are a weird team. Last night's game against the Marlins showed it all too. The Braves pitched brilliantly, but could ...

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Julio Teheran making believers

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Julio Teheran</a></strong> is making believers this spring including the guy behind this keyboard. After being in just about everyone's top ten as a prospect in 2010, 2011 and even heading into 2012, Teheran got a bit blown up in his brief stop in Atlanta in 2011 and followed that up with a real downer of a season for the Gwinnett Braves Triple-A team in 2012. Suddenly, here he is in the Braves' spring camp and--albeit, in games that do not count--is pitching spectacularly. Maybe we counted this kid out too quickly.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Teheran fell in the prospect lists like Baseball America's from fifth to 44th. But at least he was still on the board. That might have been generous after his awful numbers in Triple-A last season. The numbers were ugly. His WHIP ballooned to 1.44. He gave up over ten hits per nine innings. And after allowing only fourteen homers in 287+ innings combined in 2010 and 2011, he gave up eighteen in just 131 innings in 2012. Heck, he even hit fifteen batters.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And it wasn't only that he was getting pounded a bit that was concerning. His strikeouts per nine innings fell to 6.7 after posting much better numbers in 2010 and 2011. Was there something wrong with him? He made  one emergency start for the Braves on June 10 and it was deceptively negative. He pitched four and a third innings and gave up four hits and a walk and struck out five. But four of his five base runners scored. He did pitch two scoreless innings on October 3 but that did little to leave a confused tale of what seemed like a wall thrown up in Teheran's face in 2012.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And so it was with a certain amount of skepticism that he was <a href="http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2012/10/atlanta-braves-2012-13-offseason-team.html#.UUmnkxyyDX4" target="_blank">viewed</a> as the Braves' fifth starter on MLBDepthCharts.com. Surely, the Braves would sign or trade for somebody else. But they did not and other candidates have fallen by the wayside. It really looks like Julio Teheran is going to be the Braves' fifth starter. And that could be a good thing if this spring is any kind of indication.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Teheran has started five games this spring. He has pitched twenty innings. And yes, these games don't count and yes, many players were off playing in the World Baseball Classic. But even so, you have to like what you see. He has given up only seven hits. He has only walked six and allowed two homers. Spring batters are batting .103 against him. And best of all, he has struck out 25 batters.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He looks overpowering and a complete opposite of last year's spring exhibitions when he looked over-matched and finished the spring of 2012 with a 9.37 ERA. Last year, he gave up nine homers and 22 hits in just 16.1 innings of work. What a difference a year makes.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Video of some of his performances seem to show a confident pitcher who is keeping the ball down, making great use of a fastball that is darting away from left-handed batters and a curve that he is throwing with some authority. It was kind of hard to tell, but those fastballs looked more like a two-seam fastball instead of a four-seam one he has featured exclusively to this point in his brief major league appearances.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Atlanta Braves could push the Nationals this season if their pitching holds up. And if Julio Teheran keeps pitching the way he is right now, that pitching could be much better than expected. The projections for him are pessimistic and all in the 4.25 ERA range. But perhaps 2012 was just a blip and Julio Teheran can make believers out of all of us. </div>

Julio Teheran making believers

Julio Teheran is making believers this spring including the guy behind this keyboard. After being in just about everyone's top ten as ...

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The remarkably similar careers of Tim Hudson and Roy Halladay

<div style="text-align: justify;">Before launching further into the thought process of the bombastic heading of this post, some declarative statements need to be made. First, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Roy Halladay</a></strong> has been a much more valuable pitcher over his career than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a></strong>. Roy Halladay has won two Cy Young Awards and probably should have won another. Tim Hudson has never won a Cy Young Award and probably never will. Roy Halladay has accumulated ten more wins above replacement in his career according to Baseball-reference.com and twenty more according to Fangraphs. But all that being said, a lot of the same end results are remarkably similar.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's start with some basic (and now mostly discredited statistics):</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay: 199-100 .666 winning percentage,  3.31 career ERA</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Tim Hudson:  197-103  .654 winning percentage, 3.42 career ERA</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That's pretty darned close, isn't it? Halladay has pitched 403 times and compiled 2,687.1 innings. Hudson has pitched 406 times with 2,682.1 innings. Those numbers are virtually identical.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Tim Hudson has given up 2,504 hits and 210 homers. Roy Halladay has given up 2,594 hits and 224 homers. Those numbers are pretty darned close too.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For his career, Roy Halladay has allowed a .666 OPS against with 3,811 total bases allowed. Tim Hudson has allowed a .674 OPS against with 3,675 total bases allowed.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has allowed 987 earned runs. Tim Hudson has allowed 1,019. That is a total difference of 32 runs for virtually the same amount of innings pitched.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has faced 11,005 batters in his career. Tim Hudson has faced 11,157. Roy Halladay has induced batters to hit into 248 double plays. Tim Hudson has turned 282 ground balls into double plays. Tim Hudson has allowed 55 sacrifice flies, Roy Halladay, 59.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has a .625 winning percentage on the road. Tim Hudson has a .620 winning percentage on the road. Roy Halladay has won 90 games on the road. Tim Hudson has won 93.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has pitched 94 times when his own team scored two runs or less and has won 19 of those games. Tim Hudson has pitched 91 times when his own team scored two runs or less and has won 19 of those games.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A batter leading off an inning against Roy Halladay has hit a home run 69 times against Roy Halladay in 2,737 chances. A batter leading off an inning against Tim Hudson has hit a home run 67 times in 2,764 chances.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Roy Halladay has a combined OPS against of .672 against non-pitchers. Tim Hudson has a combined OPS against of .688 against non-pitchers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Tim Hudson has only loaded the bases with no outs 28 times in his career. Roy Halladay has only put himself in that position 32 times. Roy Halladay has an OPS against of .661 in high leverage situations. Tim Hudson has an OPS against of .657 in high leverage situations.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Are a lot of these statistics cherry-picked? Well, yes, sure. And in the final analysis, Roy Halladay has been the better pitcher. His K/BB ratio is much better, his xFIP is much better and so forth. The purpose of this post was not to build a case that Tim Hudson has been as good as Roy Halladay. But perhaps the purpose has been to show the final results have been much more similar than you might have thought. </div>

The remarkably similar careers of Tim Hudson and Roy Halladay

Before launching further into the thought process of the bombastic heading of this post, some declarative statements need to be made. First,...

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Andruw Jones was Dale Murphy with a rad glove

The offensive similarities between <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphda05.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dale Murphy</a></strong> are striking. And since each career encompassed successive generations in the Atlanta Braves' outfield, these similarities are even more fun to consider. Jones had a ten year peak from 1997 to 2006. Murphy had an eight year peak from 1980 to 1987. Both started their careers at a very young age, Jones at nineteen, Murphy at twenty. And both lost their value in their early thirties. The only real difference between the two was defense. And it was this aspect that separated the two players.<br /><br />Let's look at the offensive numbers:<br /><br />Standard:<br /><ul><li>Murphy: 9041 plate appearances, Jones 8664 plate appearances</li><li>Murphy: 1197 runs scored, 398 homers, 787 extra base hits, 1266 RBI</li><li>Jones:     1204 runs scored, 434 homers, 853 extra base hits, 1289 RBI</li><li>Murphy:  .265/.346/.469 = .815 OPS   Jones: .254/.337/.486 =.823 OPS</li><li>Murphy:  161 stolen bases / 70.3%,  Jones 152 stolen bases / 72%</li><li>Murphy:  822 non-intentional walks with 1748 strikeouts, Jones: 827 non-intentional walks, 1748 K's.</li></ul><div>Advanced:</div><div><ul><li>Murphy: 357 career wOBA, Jones: .352 career wOBA</li><li>Murphy: 121 career OPS+, Jones: 111 career OPS+</li><li>Murphy: 228 batting runs above average, Jones 163.4</li><li>Murphy: 10.9% career walk percentage, 19.3% strikeout percentage</li><li>Jones:     10.3% career walk percentage, 20.2% strikeout percentage</li></ul></div><div>Basically what you see is two similar offensive careers. But Dale Murphy will never get elected to the Hall of Fame and Andruw Jones will be hotly debated. The difference, of course, is defense. Murphy is given -33 runs below average for his career defensively. Andruw Jones is given credit for 236 runs above average for his career and is considered by many to be one of the best center fielders of all time.</div><div><br /></div><div>And that difference makes up most of the difference as to why Andruw Jones is a 59.5 rWAR career compared to Murphy's 42.6.</div><div><br /></div><div>They both started young and lost productiveness in their early thirties. Both were iconic during their peaks. And both had eerily similar offensive careers. But Andruw Jones played a pivotal position and he played it better than most who have ever played the game.</div>

Andruw Jones was Dale Murphy with a rad glove

The offensive similarities between Andruw Jones and Dale Murphy are striking. And since each career encompassed successive generations i...

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Chipper Jones' last game a fiasco

<div style="text-align: justify;">In a game that will be remembered for a very long time, a terrible call by an umpire and the fans' unruly reaction will overshadow <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesch06.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Chipper Jones</a></strong>' last game and of the awful Braves' defense that threw the game away. Jones, who will end up in Cooperstown in a half a dozen years, was part of his team's problem in this Wild Card game with the Cardinals.The Braves, perhaps the second or best team in the National League, is now gone from the post season after one game and the Cardinals will move on to the NLDS. What should have been a moment of glory for the new MLB post season ended up as a fiasco.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The crazy bottom of the eighth inning will be what is remembered about this game. The Braves were down by three runs with one out. They had two runners on, one on first and one on second. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andrelton Simmons</a></strong> lifted a lazy pop fly toward left field. The Cardinals' <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kozmape01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Pete Kozma</a></strong> drifted back. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Matt Holliday</a></strong> drifted in. Kozma raised his hands as if he had the call. Once he did so, the umpire on the left field line called the infield fly rule. But Kozma was ten to fifteen feet from the ball and gave up on it. The ball fell in front of Holliday. The Braves and the home crowd thought the Braves had a gift and a bases loaded situation with pinch hitter, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccanbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brian McCann</a></strong>, waiting to hit. But it wasn't bases loaded with one out. The umpires decision made it two outs with runners on first and second.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The problem with the decision by the umpire was twofold. First, he assumed that Kozma had an easy play. He did not. Kozma was not under the ball. The second mistake was the lateness of the call. An infield fly has to be called immediately to give the base runners the opportunity to tag up and decide whether they can go or not on the play. The base runners were not allowed that opportunity. It was the worst kind of bad call because it cannot be reviewed and it cannot be overturned because it was a judgement call.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The call infuriated Braves fans and sadly, they decided to throw things on the field in Disco Demolition Day-type numbers. The game was delayed for at least twenty minutes to clear the field and ensure everyone's safety.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The call and the fans' reaction will overshadow the fact that the Braves played a terrible game. The Braves took a two-run lead on a <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Ross</a></strong> homer in the second. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/medlekr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kris Medlen</a></strong> was cruising and everyone in the Braves dugout had to feel good about their chances at that point. Then, in his last game ever, future Hall of Fame player, Chipper Jones, cost his team three runs and the ballgame.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Beltran</a></strong> singled to start the top of the fourth. But Matt Holliday hit a sharp grounder that Jones backhanded nicely. It was an easy double-play ball. Instead, Jones threw the ball into right field and everyone was safe.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The error did two things. First, it stripped away the aura created around Medlen and opened a door for the Cardinals. Their best RBI guy, Allan Craig did what he usually does and hit a double to score both base runners. Craig's double would have been a harmless two-out job and the following <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freesda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Freese</a></strong> fly ball would have ended the inning. Instead, it scored the third run and put the Braves down, 3-2.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the sixth inning, Medlen allowed Holliday to hit a solo homer. That should have made the score, 2-1 Braves. Instead, it was 4-2 Cardinals. The embarrassing play of the Braves continued in the seventh.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Dan Uggla</a></strong> throwing error allowed a base runner to reach second. The base runner was bunted over to third and the Braves brought the infield in. Pete Kozma hit a grounder to short and was tailor-made for Simmons to get the runner out at the plate. Instead, the youngster bobbled the ball and in his panic, threw the ball away at home. Kozma ended up on second and scored on a single. Two more free runs.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That set the stage for the eighth inning and the terrible happenings there. But seriously, bad call or not, this was a fiasco for the Braves. Chipper Jones went out with the most costly gaffe of his career and then the Braves fans took away any kind of dignity that should have afforded the end of a great career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Not lost in all of this is the charmed existence of the St. Louis Cardinals, the same team that feasted on a plethora of good fortune to go from wild card to World Series champs last season. That monster is still alive and that is not good news for the rest of the National League playoff teams.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Despite it all, thank you, Chipper Jones, for the memories. There were a million more good things you did in your career that overwhelm the way this stinker ended. </div>

Chipper Jones' last game a fiasco

In a game that will be remembered for a very long time, a terrible call by an umpire and the fans' unruly reaction will overshadow Chipp...

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Tim Hudson - The unsung ace

Listing off the pitching aces in baseball is easy. There is Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Weaver, Sabathia, Strasburg and a few more. Few would think to put the Atlanta Braves' <b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a></b> on the list. But Tim Hudson is an ace. He wins the big games. He stops losing streaks. His rotation around him fluctuates in effectiveness. But nine times out of ten, he is going to throw a good game at you. And the Braves' success is so wrapped around Tim Hudson's fortunes that when he lost steam last September, the Braves could not overcome his mortality and fell out of a playoff spot on the last day of the season. Tim Hudson is a...dare it be said?...winner.<br /><br />Hudson will never be among the leaders in WAR. He does not blow people away with a fastball. His strikeout rate is mundane. He makes his living getting batters to pound the ball weakly into the ground. And he has been doing it for years. Here are a few facts about Tim Hudson you might not know:<br /><br /><ul><li>After last night's win, his career record improved to 193-101, a .656 winning percentage.</li><li>Hudson's winning percentage is the 22nd best of all time and behind only Weaver and Halladay among active pitchers (Minimum of 1,000 innings pitched).</li><li>He is pitching in his fourteenth season and has never had a losing record. He's never even had a .500 record.</li><li>Tim Hudson has only had one season in his career where his winning percentage was less than .600.</li><li>Since 1999, only five other pitchers have compiled more WAR.</li><li>Only eight pitchers since 1999 have a lower career BABIP than Tim Hudson (his stands at .279 for his career).</li><li>Only ten pitchers since 1999 have been better at stranding base runners.</li><li>Since 1999, only two pitchers have pitched more innings than Hudson and they are out of baseball.</li><li>He is tied with Halladay for the most wins since 1999.</li><li>Hudson's 2.54 ground ball to fly ball ratio is the third highest among active starters behind only Lowe and Westbrook.</li><li>Since 1999, Tim Hudson is fifth in WPA.</li><li>For his career, Hudson has a 0.7 home run per nine inning rate and he is currently in his sixth straight season with a rate under one.</li><li>His career ERA+ is higher than Sabathia, Cain, Lincecum, Lester, Peavy, Lee, Haren, Carpenter and Greinke.</li></ul><br />So, yeah, Tim Hudson has had a fantastic career. And he seems to be just as good now as he was when his fastball had five more miles per hour on it. Hudson doesn't need a lot of run support to win. In games where the Braves have scored three to five runs a game, his record is 6-2 this season. Hudson beat both the Yankees and the Rays in interleague play this season.<br /><br />Hudson has not had a losing month this season. His 2-2 record in May was the closest. Since then, Hudson has gone 10-2. In eight road starts, Hudson is 5-1 with a 3.06 ERA. His ERA is 3.96 at home, but he is 7-3 at Turner Field.<br /><br />Tim Hudson is an ace. He is an unsung ace. But he is one. All he does is win. And he has been doing that for a long, long time.

Tim Hudson - The unsung ace

Listing off the pitching aces in baseball is easy. There is Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Weaver, Sabathia, Strasburg and a few more. Few wo...

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