Two wild card teams in the World Series

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We are a game away from the 2014 World Series being populated by wild card teams. I don't believe this is something that is bad or wrong. I do not write about this because the two teams did not earn or deserve to get as far as they have gotten. There is just an uneasiness about two teams that did not win their respective divisions after 162 games battling for the title.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's not like it happens often. I don't recall another World Series like it. I do remember the Cardinals winning the World Series as a wild card team in 2011. I do know of some Cardinal fans that were slightly embarrassed about the fact. It doesn't really bother me greatly, but again, there is some uneasiness about those six teams that won divisions sitting at home watching the Series along with the rest of us.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I think part of my problem is the current way in which wild card teams are handled as far as home field advantage goes. In the division series, the wild card faces a 2-2-1 scenario with the middle two games as the only home games. Then in the LCS, the series is handled in a 2-3-2 scenario. My problem is the middle two games.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I believe that the wild card team should have at least one home game in the division series and at least two in the LCS. A team's fans deserve to get to cheer for their team in the post season. I would never advocate taking away home games for wild card teams. But again, there is a problem.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The first problem is if the wild card team wins at least one of the two first two away games in either series. Since most teams have at least one "ace" pitcher, the odds of that happening are pretty strong. And if the wild card team can win one of those first two games, then the series (either one) moves to the wild card city where a series can be put away entirely while in the wild card team's city.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's take the current Giants - Cardinals series in the NLCS. The Giants have an ace in <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong>. So the team's odds of winning one of the two games in St. Louis is pretty strong. I get that the team still has to win a game and the Cardinals have good pitching too...at least in theory.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So the Giants win one of the two games in St. Louis and then play the next three in San Francisco. Once past the ace, a game can be aided by the home town crowd, a team's comfort level at home, etc. So the Cardinals have a three-game slog through extra adversity just to try to survive to get back to where they would have the advantage at home. I'm not sure that is weighted correctly for a division winner and a team that did not win a division.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If the series goes to the max (five games or seven), then the division winner has the advantage. But how often does that happen? So how would you go about fixing this situation?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One way is to have the opening two games in the wild card team's home stadium. Then the series is finished entirely at the home of the division winner. This reverses the current situation for the better.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Before I support other options, I need to interject a fundamental thought. It is my belief that the wild card team's options should be more difficult than a team that won a division. Basically, what happens now is that once a wild card team gets past the wild card game, the current set up actually favors them and that is not fundamentally correct.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Another option is to cut down the home games for the wild card to one in the division series and two in the LCS. I don't like this as much because fans of any post season team deserve the chance to root for their teams and quite frankly, any post season team deserves to gain the extra revenue from home games.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In the last stated option, the division series would go 2-1-2 and the LCS would go to 2-2-3. Frankly, once a team gets to the World Series, they have earned the right to be there and all bets are off and neither team deserves any breaks.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">One last option is the most drastic. It would include adding one more wild card team in each league for a total of three and then you drop the wild card game and have three concurrent division series with the three division winners all facing a wild card team in the first option format.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My conclusion and my contention is that the current format actually favors the wild card team, especially if it can win one of the first two games of either series. And carrying a system that favors a wild card team over a division winner just doesn't seem right from where I sit.</span></div>

Two wild card teams in the World Series

We are a game away from the 2014 World Series being populated by wild card teams. I don't believe this is something that is bad or wrong...

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MLB Game Picks - Sunday: October 5, 2014

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This is getting downright silly. I cannot pick a playoff game to save myself. Two more incorrect calls and one took eighteen innings to put me there. When the post season started, my hope was that I wouldn't get eleven picks wrong total because I did not want my season incorrect total to reach 1,100. How laughable is that now that I have picked eight of ten post season games incorrectly?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I am going to fault <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=willima04,willima09,willima03,willia011mat,willia015mat&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=willima04,willima09,willima03,willia011mat,willia015mat&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Williams</a></strong> for one of them. I mean, who would you rather face with two outs in the ninth inning holding a 1-0 lead with a man on first, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jordan Zimmermann</a></strong>, who got you there, or any relief pitcher? So what if it was <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a></strong>? Williams should not have listened to the "book" there just because Zimmermann had just hit 100 pitches and had given up a hit to Posey prior in the game. Have some faith, man!</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There is more second guessing to go around. What about the Nats' approach to hitting <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Tim Hudson</a></strong>? Give Hudson credit, he willed his way to bring back some old magic, but still, hit the ball up the middle and the other way on a soft toss guy. Nope. And why pitch to <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brandon Belt</a></strong> in the 18th? <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brandon Crawford</a></strong> was next and he hadn't gotten close to a hit all day.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh well, perhaps the most talented team in the National League is now nearly toast. And we get the every-other-year magic of the Giants instead. And how do you feel now TBS and MLB after your insistence on putting the game on later in the day and then having to go until after midnight on the East Coast to figure out who was going to win? That will teach you and it serves you right.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I didn't mind so much getting the Dodgers - Cardinals game wrong. Those were two great starters and either one of them could have succeeded.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's all ALDS today. So here are my (sure to be incorrect) picks:</span></div><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Tigers</strong> over the Orioles</span>: I'm afraid to make any pick at the moment. Talk about gun shy. Anyway, if you have to choose between <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">David Price</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norribu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norribu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Bud Norris</a></strong>, wouldn't you always take David Price? Plus, the Tigers are at home which will help them. My reservations? Price only pitched once against the Orioles this year and it did not go well. The Orioles can hit just about anybody.</span></li></ul><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Royals</strong> over the Angels</span>: The most improbable of the winners will finish the sweep. I think. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsocj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsocj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">C.J. Wilson</a></strong> is 1-5 in his post season career and has not pitched well. His one win did come in an ALDS however. But I don't see it. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shielja02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shielja02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">James Shields</a></strong> worries me though. He'll either be Big Game James, something I have never bought by the way, or he'll give up two or three homers. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> has been totally absent. Will he wake up today? I can feel another 0-2 today. Ugh.</span></li></ul><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yesterday: 0-2, Post Season: 2-8, Season: 1367-1098</span></div>

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: October 5, 2014

This is getting downright silly. I cannot pick a playoff game to save myself. Two more incorrect calls and one took eighteen innings to put ...

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MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how to play those close games. The results gave me a 1-1 day picking. At least I finally got my first correct pick of the post season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Of course it was the extra-inning game that got me yesterday. And the home loss puts the Angels in a bind. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Josh Hamilton</a></strong> went a combined 0-13 in the game. There is no way the Angels win if that continues.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Today is playoff nirvana with four games. If you were so inclined, you could watch all four games from noon today (Eastern Time) through after midnight. It should be a fun day.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The picks:</span></div><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Orioles</strong> over the Tigers</span>: Again, there is something about this Orioles team. They just seem to have it, if you know what I mean. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong> is no longer the top dog on the Tigers' rotation and the Orioles already beat the top dog. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Wei-Yin Chen</a></strong> is the wild card here. How he pitches will depend on how the game goes. I'm going Orioles.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Nationals</strong> over the Giants</span>: <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg</a></strong> worries me. How will he pitch today? But <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peavyja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peavyja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jake Peavy</a></strong> scares me more. The odds of the Nationals' lineup getting to Peavy seem greater in this case. Peavy has been here before, however, and Strasburg has not.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Dodgers</strong> over the Cardinals</span>: What a great match-up this is (on paper). <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> versus <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a></strong>. Wainwright has been through this a half dozen times and knows what he has to do. Kershaw has had one crack at it and did not do well. But head to head, you've got to believe that Kershaw completely shuts down the Cardinals while Wainwright begrudgingly gives up a two-spot.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Angels</strong> over the Royals</span>: Nothing like picking only home teams, there, William. How has that worked out for you so far? Not very good. I worry more about <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/ventuyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/ventuyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Yordano Ventura</a></strong> than I do <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shoemma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shoemma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Shoemaker</a></strong>. But the worry for Shoemaker is his health. He didn't pitch the last couple of weeks and who knows how effective he will be. If this was the Matt Shoemaker that was on the roll for July and August, I would not hesitate. Now there is much hesitation.</span></li></ul><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yesterday: 1-1, Post Season: 1-3, Season: 1366-1093</span></div>

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 3, 2014

The two home teams in the ALDS had completely opposite days. The Orioles romped and the Angels lost to a gritty Royals team that knows how t...

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MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 2, 2014

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I am zero for two so far in the post season. Nicely done, William! Heh. I was worried about <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Edinson Volquez</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> and I let my emotions override my concern. You just can't trust pitchers who wear their hats crooked...at least, not in the long run. </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> certainly helped cement his stature as one of the premier pitchers in baseball. Because he plays on the West Coast, I don't think he gets enough of his due, including from me. Because of him and because of crooked hats, the Giants move on into the playoffs.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh yes, and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong> went two for five with a walk. So, again, <a data-mce-href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/10/last-giants-hurrah-for-pablo-sandoval.html" href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/10/last-giants-hurrah-for-pablo-sandoval.html" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">beware of those warm fuzzies</a>.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Today it is all the American League. If you hate the DH, this isn't a good day for you. The picks:</span></div><ul style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; list-style: square; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Orioles</strong> over the Tigers</span>: If <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tillmch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Chris Tillman</a></strong> can hang with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> for seven innings, then it becomes a bullpen game and that is the Tigers' weakness and the Orioles' strength. Scherzer has been tremendous in the post season, but there is something about this Orioles team. And at home, they will have an advantage with that crowd. Everyone will say that the Tigers can hit. But, boy, so can those Orioles.</span></li><li style="line-height: 1.5;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-mce-style="text-decoration: underline;" style="line-height: 1.5; text-decoration: underline;">The <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Angels</strong> over the Royals</span>: I am worried about the rotation of both these teams and how deep they can go. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jered Weaver</a></strong> had an ace-like season. But every time he pitches, you wonder how he can get anyone out with the speed of his stuff. But he wins, right? The Royals counter with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jason Vargas</a></strong>. Oy. I can see <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yostne01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yostne01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ned Yost</a></strong> going bonkers in his managing tonight.</span></li></ul><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Post Season: 0-2, Season: 1365-1091</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><br /></div>

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 2, 2014

I am zero for two so far in the post season. Nicely done, William! Heh. I was worried about  Edinson Volquez  and I let my emotions override...

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MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 10, 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">The last of the division series will be decided tonight after the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 5 of their series yesterday. Today, the Tigers and the Oakland Athletics will play a Game 5 of their own for the second straight year to decide which team will move on to face the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Just like last year, the A's must face <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong> who they could not solve last year and in the second game of this year's ALDS. Their home field advantage did not help them last year. Will it help the A's this year?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The pick:</div><br /><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Detroit Tigers over the <b>Oakland Athletics</b></u>: This game has several scenarios that could happen. The A's have taken a huge gamble by bringing back <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Sonny Gray</a></strong> to start instead of Colon. After the second game of the series, will the Tigers have a better gauge on Gray? Scenario one: Gray and Verlander are again dominant and the A's again win late because of the Tigers' bullpen. Scenario two: The cracks in Verlander's season reappear here in Game 5 and the A's get to him early with Gray being good enough to get to the A's bullpen. Scenario three: Neither pitcher is effective and the A's win a slugfest with superior defense. Scenario four: Verlander is again dominant and the A's pay the price for starting a  young and inexperienced pitcher in the biggest game of the season. The trick is to pick which scenario is more likely. As much as I'd like to believe the first three scenarios are possible, the last one seems the most probable. Verlander has been here before and knows what to do. Sonny Gray is being asked to pull off a miracle. I don't see it happening.</li></ul><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 1-0</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 13-7</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1387-1075 </div>

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: October 10, 2013

The last of the division series will be decided tonight after the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 5 of their ser...

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MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 8, 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">You could not ask for much more excitement than yesterday's playoff action. Four thrilling games in one day left my picks at 2-2. But seriously, who cares this time of year. It is all a crap shoot anyway.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Dodgers could not do much with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=garcifr03,garcifr01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Freddy Garcia</a></strong> and fumbled a couple of unearned runs onto <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong>'s column. But <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uribeju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Juan Uribe</a></strong> had another great post season in him and pushed the Dodgers into the NLCS.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Cardinals won a thriller against the Pirates, who only tallied one hit the entire game. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Wacha</a></strong> was sensational and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Holliday</a></strong> took care of what offense they needed. That series is going to a Game 5.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Red Sox and Rays probably played the most entertaining game in one that went back and forth until <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lobatjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Lobaton</a></strong> hit a homer into the rays tank off the best reliever in baseball to walk off a win and stay alive.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And the day started with the game that had the least amount of drama at least until <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/balfogr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Grant Balfour</a></strong> acted like the biggest jerk in the world in the ninth during his save as the A's beat the Tigers to go up 2-1 in that series.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Today's two games are going to seem like a letdown. But a lot can be decided in the two ALDS games. Either the Tigers and Rays will tie the series and send them to five games or they go home.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The picks:</div><br /><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Red Sox over the <b>Rays</b></u>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeremy Hellickson</a></strong> will have the shortest of leashes or the Rays will come back with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Moore</a></strong>. We will have to see as the day goes along. But either way, the Red Sox have shown the ability to hit both, so it should not matter. What does matter is what kind of game <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peavyja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jake Peavy</a></strong> pitches. This is why the Red Sox got the guy and he is the toughest of competitors. But that does not mean he will pitch well. And anything can happen in a ballpark that features rings of a dome that are in play or not. Jose Lobaton. I cannot get over that. Will that propel the Rays? It could. But I see a Red Sox win. They are clearly the better team. But the better team does not always win in a five-game series.</li></ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Tigers </b>over the Athletics</u>: The A's do not have an ace. Well, you could call <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bartolo Colon</a></strong> the ace, but he is not really. So there is no question for them staying with the program and having <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/straida01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dan Straily</a></strong>, their fourth starter, pitch today. You never really know what to expect from Straily. Meanwhile, the Tigers will have a decision to make. Do they stick with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fistedo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Doug Fister</a></strong> today and save <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> for a Game 5 that may never come? Or do they pitch Scherzer on four days rest? If I were them, I would go with Scherzer and then you still have Verlander for Game 5 if they win. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> have been invisible in this series and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksau01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Austin Jackson</a></strong> has been <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Curtis Granderson</a></strong>-like with all the strikeouts. It will be an interesting day in Detroit.</li></ul><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 2-2</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 10-7</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1384-1075 </div>

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: October 8, 2013

You could not ask for much more excitement than yesterday's playoff action. Four thrilling games in one day left my picks at 2-2. But se...

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MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryuhy01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hyun-jin Ryu</a></strong> was ineffective for the Dodgers and they quickly went to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/capuach01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Chris Capuano</a></strong>. That decision won the game because Capuano was terrific and he earned the win. The Braves, as we shall see in a minute, are now in big trouble.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Pirates also have the Cardinals on the ropes, but we shall see if the shortness of their rotation becomes a factor as they lack a shut down guy today and if the series extends, have to come back with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">A.J. Burnett</a></strong>, who was shellacked in his last outing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The two ALDS games will be exciting too. The Tigers and A's are tied and the series goes to Detroit. The Red Sox have a chance to sweep the Rays but must do so down in St. Pete. Four big games today. It should be fascinating.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The picks:</div><br /><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Tigers </b>over the Athletics</u>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeja02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jarrod Parker</a></strong> is my problem here. At times, he looks spectacular and on others, not so much. His one start against the Tigers this season was disastrous. His home/road splits do not tell us much nor do his day/night splits. I think the Tigers hit him. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong> goes for the Tigers and few people realize what a great season he had. His record does not pop out at you, but he is right there among the leaders in many categories. If he pitches well, the Tigers win.</li></ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Cardinals over the <b>Pirates</b></u>: This game completely depends on how <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Wacha</a></strong> pitches. The young stud pitcher for St. Louis has the kind of arm that can shut down anyone. But he is young and he makes mistakes. If he can limit them today and get off to a good start, the Cardinals win. If he doesn't start well, then anything can happen with the fans in Pittsburgh going nuts. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=mortoch02,mortoch01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Charlie Morton</a></strong> does not strike fear in anyone. He is a pitcher totally dependent on BABIP or where his batted balls go upon contact.</li></ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Red Sox over the <b>Bay Rays</b></u>: I see a sweep. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clay Buchholz</a></strong> has been unbelievable this season and if he is good today, the Rays will not get him. I questioned Lackey in Game 2, but as a Twitter pal pointed out, Lackey is better at home and if the Red Sox won, could come back with Buchholz for game, set and match. The only sticking point is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alex Cobb</a></strong>, who has been amazing himself. But that amazing goes against every team except the Red Sox. The Red Sox can make any pitcher look mortal and if that offense shows up, there will be nothing Cobb can do to stop them. Cobb lost only three games this season. One of them was to the Red Sox. Overall, he faced them four times and had a 5.16 ERA against them.</li></ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Dodgers </b>over the Braves</u>: The Braves are in big trouble and I see the Dodgers closing out the series today. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzafr99.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Fredi Gonzalez</a></strong>'s decision to bring <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alex Wood</a></strong> into the game as a long reliever in yesterday's game means that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=garcifr03,garcifr01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Freddy Garcia</a></strong> will start for them today. Excuse me while I pause to gag. Oh, Freddy is capable of a surprise good start. He has done it a couple of times this season. But he has given up 18 homers in just 81 innings. Yeah, that's bad. Alex Wood should have started this game and Garcia should have performed the long relief. Of course, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolasri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ricky Nolasco</a></strong> had a great start with the Dodgers and kind of petered out as the season went along. But gosh, all he has to do is be ordinary today and the Dodgers should win.</li></ul><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 2-0</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 8-5</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1382-1073</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

MLB Game Picks - Monday: October 7, 2013

Both games were picked correctly yesterday though the Dodgers - Braves game did not go according to what I envisioned. Hyun-jin Ryu was in...

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Put to rest the run support asterisk with Scherzer

<div style="text-align: justify;">I can picture in my mind that moment when Brian Kenney of the MLB Network saw his dreams of someone other than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> winning the Cy Young Award went poof. Scherzer was going to be Kenney's poster boy for the meaninglessness of the win statistic so he could show that guys like King Felix and Darvish were the better pitchers. The problem for Kenney became that Scherzer, despite the run support and the wins was the best pitcher in the American League in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And then we get this <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9772163/max-scherzer-shows-cy-young-worthy-game-1-alds-m" target="_blank">headline</a> from Jim Caple at ESPN after Scherzer's playoff win against the A's yesterday: "<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Run support no big deal for Scherzer." In Caple's defense, his point was that Scherzer showed why the pitcher was the Cy Young Award's best candidate. But Caple got to the point by bringing up the tired argument:</span></span></div><blockquote class="tr_bq"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; line-height: 17px;">"Hmmm. Apparently, </span><a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28976/max-scherzer" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #225fb2; font-family: inherit; line-height: 19px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Max Scherzer</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; line-height: 17px;"> can also win when he doesn't get great run support. Funny how good pitchers can do that.</span></div><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"></span><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 19px;">Scherzer received the third-highest run support in the majors -- nearly six runs per game -- during the regular season, leading some critics to complain that his 21 wins were as much a testament to his teammates' bats as his pitching. That is, if they gave any credence to wins at all."</span></span></div><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"></span></blockquote><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Caple is basically saying the same thing I have been saying here for the last couple of months, so I should be grateful. But for me, I will not be happy until Scherzer can be mentioned without the run support even coming up in the conversation. Put it to rest already.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Max Scherzer beat league averages no matter what he received for run support. Yes, he received an average of six runs plus run support per game. But it is not like he received that every game. The American League averages for starting pitchers for run support went like this:</span></span><br /><ul><li><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 19px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">0-2 Runs = 30.2% of </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">occurrences</span></li><li><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; line-height: 19px;">3-5 Runs = 39.8%</span></li><li><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">6 or more = 30%</span></li></ul><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">Scherzer's were indeed skewed as his same percentages were: 15.6%, 40.6% and 43.8% respectively. While his 3-5 run games of support were near the norm, he only had five starts with two or less and fourteen with more than six. But again, he beat the norms in every category. Here are the league winning percentages in those splits:</span><br /><ul><li><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">0-2 runs = .121 winning percentage</span></li><li><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">3-5 runs = .534 </span></li><li><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">6 or more = .915</span></li></ul><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">Scherzer's winning percentages in those same splits were: .250, 1.000, 1.000. Those wins were no accident. And let's for a moment, compare them to the great season Verlander put up in 2011 in his Cy Young Award winning season. Verlander's occurrences 17.6%, 50% and 32.3%. So Verlander also received a lot of run support in 2011. I do not remember that being so hotly debated during that season as far as his winning percentage. All of Verlander's losses that season were in the six (and only six) occurrences of when the Tigers scored zero to two runs in a game. That is basically the same as what happened to Scherzer this season.</span><br /><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">Was Scherzer's season up to Verlander's 2011 standard? No, I don't think so. I don't think many seasons like Verlander's in 2011 come up very often in one lifetime. But Scherzer was clearly this year's best pitcher in the American League and run support had little to do with it.</span><br /><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;"><br /></span><span style="line-height: 18.99147605895996px;">But now perhaps with this playoff win, people can stop saying Scherzer's name without having to include the run support thing in the same sentence or paragraph. The win statistic is not the most important statistic to rate a pitcher. I get that. But for a starting pitcher, it is far from meaningless. Scherzer was the winningest pitcher in the American League. But he was also the best.</span></div>

Put to rest the run support asterisk with Scherzer

I can picture in my mind that moment when Brian Kenney of the MLB Network saw his dreams of someone other than Max Scherzer winning the Cy...

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MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 5, 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday was the equivalent of baseball porn as we had playoff baseball for more than thirteen hours. The first two games were blowouts as the Red Sox blew out the Rays (you cannot just blame <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=,myerswi01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wil Myers</a></strong>) and the Pirates, in impressive fashion, derailed a bit the Cardinals hunt for redbird October (there is not surprisingly a website by that name).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The later two games were much more thrilling and both were one-run games. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> showed why he is now the Tigers' ace and not that other guy and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong> was pulled an inning too soon as his replacement coughed up two runs the Dodgers could not overcome. Yes, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=,youngmi02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></strong> did get a pinch hit single that Greinke may or may not have produced (he is a good hitter for a pitcher). But a double-play killed that rally, the Dodgers did not score and the two runs the Braves scored off of Greinke's inexperienced reliever cost the game.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">How did the picks fare in all this? They split, 2-2. The Pirates surprised me and good for them and their fans. It's great the series now goes back to Pittsburgh so that entire city can celebrate. The Braves win was much less unexpected. That was a game that could have gone either way and it did fall away from what I predicted.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">How boring, there are only two playoff games today and they are both American League games. Heh. The picks:</div><br /><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Rays over the <b>Red Sox</b></u>: This is a tough one because you cannot predict how each pitcher will fare against the other's lineup. If you go by just the pitching match-up, you would naturally think that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">David Price</a></strong> is a better pick than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lackejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">John Lackey</a></strong>. But the Red Sox mash the baseball and Price is going to have to pitch the game of his life. If Lackey survives the first inning, he could frustrate this pick also. I think I would have gone with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clay Buchholz</a></strong> in this game to try to go up two heading to Tropicana. But we'll see how it all works out.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Tigers over the <b>Athletics</b></u>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Sonny Gray</a></strong> is the big wildcard in this game. I have loved this kid all season, but to ask him to come up big in this setting? The Indians tried the same thing with Salazar and it did not work. Another unknown is what kind of effort the Tigers will get from <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong>. He certainly fell off the most feared list this season. But I would not put it against him in a big ballpark to do well in this game. Verlander will need to get ahead in the counts and go from there. Neither of these offenses consistently crank. It all seems hit or miss sometimes. The Tigers scored three runs in the first yesterday and then died the rest of the game. I have to go with Verlander. Uh oh, I just picked both home teams to lose. Yikes!</li></ul><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 2-2</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 6-3</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1380-1071 </div>

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: October 5, 2013

Yesterday was the equivalent of baseball porn as we had playoff baseball for more than thirteen hours. The first two games were blowouts as ...

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MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 4, 2013

<div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday's playoff games went pretty much how I expected them to go. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a></strong> were the aces they were billed to be and the other teams could not stay with them with their own pitchers. There was not a whole lot of drama involved.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Today could be different. There are four games being played, which is about as good as playoff baseball gets. None of the games are as clear-cut as yesterday. It will be fascinating to see what happens.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Friday's playoff picks:</div><br /><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Cardinals </b>over the Pirates</u>: This game will make or break the Pirates. If they go down by two games, it will be impossible (in my opinion) to come back. If they can win the game, anything can happen. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Lance Lynn</a></strong> would not be starting this game if it wasn't for his last four starts of the season when he regained his mojo. He had a real bad stretch including two poor games against the Pirates before that. So the Pirates have beat him up pretty good. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a></strong> was great down the stretch too, but the problem for me in that run was that he did not face one single tough offense in his last ten starts. That will not be the case today. I have to go with the home team here and the better offense. The Cardinals just know how to do this.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Red Sox</b> over the Rays</u>: This game is really intriguing. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Moore</a></strong> goes for the Rays and he pitched against the Red Sox twice this season and dominated them like few other pitchers have been able to do. He went 2-0 against them with an ERA of 1.84. He was particularly brilliant in Fenway where he is today. So why pick against him? <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jon Lester</a></strong> is 7-1 in day games. It is his best split. He is not as good against the Rays as Moore has been against the Red Sox. The Rays are on a roll and have been playing steadily. The Red Sox have sat around for a while. This will be interesting. I am going with what I perceive to be the better team at home.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The <b>Dodgers </b>over the Braves</u>: I pretty much know what <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/minormi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Minor</a></strong> is going to do. He will do what he always does. He has not given up more than four runs in his last ten starts. So Minor will hold the Dodgers to four runs or less for six or seven innings. The big question is what will <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong> do? I have this lack of trust in Greinke. But looking back over his last ten games, he has been brilliant. Minor is a fly ball pitcher which plays well in Dodgers Stadium. Greinke has to be the pick because of his season and pitching in a spacious park.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Tigers over the <b>Athletics</b></u>: I have trouble buying into either of these teams. They can look as awful as they look good. But it is hard to forget how the Tigers flipped on a switch of sorts in the playoffs last year and just blanked everybody. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> can do that to the A's. As far as the A's are concerned, they send <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bartolo Colon</a></strong> to the mound. How can you doubt old Bartolo? I have all season and look what he has done? He is not a fluke. But in the back of my mind is that start he has every once in a while where he gives up like four homers. So this game comes down to which pitcher can have a bad day and Colon seems more capable of that than Scherzer.</li></ul><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 2-0</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 4-1</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Week: 14-6</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1378-1069 </div>

MLB Game Picks - Friday: October 4, 2013

Yesterday's playoff games went pretty much how I expected them to go. Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright were the aces they were bi...

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Strikeouts came back to bite Athletics

<div style="text-align: justify;">Back in early September, the <a href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2012/09/whiff-rate-might-sink-oakland-athletics.html" target="_blank">one worry presented in this space</a> for the Cinderella Oakland Athletics was their prestigious strikeout rate. At the time that post was created, the fear was that the inability of the A's to make consistent contact would prevent them from getting to the playoffs. Well, that fear was unfounded as the team had a remarkable run to the finish line. But the bugaboo of whiffs did ultimately sink them in their series against the Tigers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Oh, the Tigers' pitching did have something to do with that. After all, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong> pitched twice in the series and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Max Scherzer</a></strong> had a better strikeout rate than his CYA teammate. But still, the inability to hit the ball and put it in play sunk the A's. They struck out 29.5 percent of their plate appearances in this series. After watching all the series this week, it was thought with Granderson and A-Rod that the Yankees were striking out more (both those players have nine each). But the Yankees strikeout rate for their series is 22.9 percent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Oakland A's led the American League in strikeouts this season. It was always a problem that was masked by an incredible penchant to get the most out of every young starter and make every run count. They truly had a remarkable season and should be proud and thrilled with how far they came this season. But ultimately, against tough opposition pitching, you have to find a way to put the ball in play. When you do so, you at least have a chance to make things happen. The A's could not do that enough in their ALDS and it ultimately cost them.</div><br /><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 569px;"> <colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 4425; mso-width-source: userset; width: 91pt;" width="121"></col> <col span="7" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col> </colgroup><tbody><tr height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td height="21" style="height: 15.75pt; width: 91pt;" width="121"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td> <td class="xl70" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">strikeout</td> </tr><tr height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"></td> <td class="xl68" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">G</td> <td class="xl69" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">PA</td> <td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; width: 48pt;" width="64">AB</td> <td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; width: 48pt;" width="64">BB</td> <td class="xl64" style="border-left: none; width: 48pt;" width="64">SO</td> <td class="xl75" style="border-left: none; width: 48pt;" width="64">OPS</td> <td class="xl76">Perc.</td> </tr><tr data-row="3" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Cespedes,Yoenis" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cespeyo01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Yoenis Cespedes</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none; border-top: none;">21</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none;">19</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none;">2</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none;">2</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none;">0.749</td> <td class="xl77">9.5%</td> </tr><tr data-row="5" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Crisp,Coco" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crispco01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Coco Crisp</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">22</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">22</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">2</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.5</td> <td class="xl77">9.1%</td> </tr><tr data-row="6" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Donaldson,Josh" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Josh Donaldson</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">18</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">17</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">1</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">4</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.686</td> <td class="xl77">22.2%</td> </tr><tr data-row="8" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl66" csk="Drew,Stephen" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/drewst01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Stephen Drew</a></td> <td class="xl73" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">21</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">19</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">2</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">7</td> <td class="xl73" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.602</td> <td class="xl77">33.3%</td> </tr><tr data-row="9" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Gomes,Jonny" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomesjo01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Jonny Gomes</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">1</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">1</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">1</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl77">0.0%</td> </tr><tr data-row="11" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Kottaras,George" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kottage01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">George Kottaras</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">4</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">4</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">4</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">2</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl77">50.0%</td> </tr><tr data-row="13" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Moss,Brandon" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mossbr01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Brandon Moss</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">17</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">15</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">2</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">7</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.411</td> <td class="xl77">41.2%</td> </tr><tr data-row="15" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Norris,Derek" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norride01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Derek Norris</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">12</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">12</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">6</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.167</td> <td class="xl77">50.0%</td> </tr><tr data-row="17" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Pennington,Cliff" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennicl01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Cliff Pennington</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">17</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">14</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">3</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">4</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.697</td> <td class="xl77">23.5%</td> </tr><tr data-row="18" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl65" csk="Reddick,Josh" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Josh Reddick</a></td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">18</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">17</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">1</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">10</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.461</td> <td class="xl77">55.6%</td> </tr><tr data-row="20" height="21" style="height: 15.75pt;"> <td class="xl67" csk="Smith,Seth" height="21" style="border-top-style: none; height: 15.75pt;"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithse01.shtml" style="vertical-align: inherit;">Seth Smith</a></td> <td class="xl74" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">5</td> <td class="xl72" style="border-left: none;">18</td> <td class="xl74" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">15</td> <td class="xl74" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">3</td> <td class="xl74" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">6</td> <td class="xl74" style="border-left-style: none; border-top-style: none;">0.716</td> <td class="xl77">33.3%</td> </tr></tbody></table><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">There is no blame here. The A's took the series to the brink. They played great and had a great season. The only thing this post is trying to state is that the team had too many players that did not put the ball in play. You can survive a couple. But when six of your regular players are above 30 percent strikeout rates, it makes it that much tougher to score runs against very good pitching.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Even so, congrats, Oakland Athletics, on your wonderful ride and season. It was a blast.</div>

Strikeouts came back to bite Athletics

Back in early September, the one worry presented in this space for the Cinderella Oakland Athletics was their prestigious strikeout rate. A...

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Game Picks - Friday: October 12, 2012

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Game Picks continued its utter futility at picking this post season. It's silly really. There were four games yesterday and only the Tigers win behind a studly performance by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong> was correct. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong> only allowed one run in his start for the Yankees. Normally, if that happened, He would win nineteen of twenty times. But the Orioles would not let the Yankees score more than one run in an unbelievable performance of hitting the margins all day. The Nationals proved their metal by their win over the Cardinals, their first ever in Washington, D.C to force a Game Five. And the Giants, behind <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/poseybu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Buster Posey</a></strong>, simply won a battle of will against the Reds, who never stopped trying. None of those things were predicted here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And so there are two Game Fives today. By the end of the day, one fan base will be crushed and the other will be exultant. Which will it be? You are asking this game picker at this point? We'll all be watching together to find out. But just for the sake of doing the job and getting it done, here are Friday's picks:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Yankees over the Orioles</u>: There is less and less confidence that the Yankees will ever hit in this series. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Curtis Granderson</a></strong> could not hit a beachball with their bats right now. And the Orioles' pitching has been unbelievable in their ability to keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hammeja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason Hammel</a></strong> is just like all the rest of the Orioles. No knee? No reps? No problem. Start the game and look like Cy Young for six innings. The Yankees fate rests in the hands of C.C. Sabathia. If he is ace-like, the Yankees should win. If he is not, they lose. Simple as that.</li></ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Nationals over the Cardinals</u>: This one should be a great game. The Nationals win IF <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Gio Gonzalez</a></strong> pitches the game of his life and IF their batters can get to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a></strong> early. Those are two big if statements. They will have the home crowd to cheer them on and they have to remember and perform like they were the best team in the National League this season. These two teams combined for six total hits yesterday. So if that happens again, it's a total crap shoot...which describes just about every playoff game thus far.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 1-3</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 7-13</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1340-1080 </div>

Game Picks - Friday: October 12, 2012

The Game Picks continued its utter futility at picking this post season. It's silly really. There were four games yesterday and only the...

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Game Picks - Thursday: October 11, 2012

<div style="text-align: justify;">What an incredible night of baseball. Except if you are a fan of the Orioles and Tigers. If so, much sympathies as all baseball fans, especially long-term ones, know exactly how that felt and it is a horrible feeling. But for everyone else, nothing could have beaten the drama displayed as two teams in succession came from behind and walked off with victories. Amazing stuff.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As for the NLDS, both of the picks there yesterday were wrong. Both visiting teams took care of the home teams with ease to push the Reds - Giants series to the brink and gave the Cards a 2-1 lead in their series with the Nationals.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">All four series will continue today. There is a possibility that all could end today and only wins by the Orioles and Nationals will extend those two series. The other two are Gave Five events. Wow.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It will be a packed day of baseball, so let's get to the picks:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Reds over the Giants</u>: The Reds are taking a pounding in the press over losing the last two games at home after winning the first two games of the series in San Francisco. But geez, these things do happen and the Giants are a playoff team that won a division handily. Two things will have to happen to make this pick a reality. First, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/latosma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mat Latos</a></strong> has to come up big. Very big. Second, the Reds have to get to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Cain</a></strong> a second time which doesn't seem likely. This is a true tossup with the pick going to the home team.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Cardinals over the Nationals</u>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/detwiro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ross Detwiler</a></strong> is starting a game that is a do or die game for the Nationals. This is the truest consequence of the Strasburg decision and one that will be discussed for a very long time, especially if the Nats lose. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lohseky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kyle Lohse</a></strong> is a very good pitcher who has been here before. He will hold down the Nationals and allow the bats to win the game.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Yankees over the Orioles</u>: While not buying the meme that the Orioles will be shell-shocked and dejected, their backs <i>are</i> against the wall (cliche alert!). They have two win two games at Yankee Stadium. If they do beat <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hugheph01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Phil Hughes</a></strong> tonight, they have Sabathia tomorrow. Tough. Hughes, of course needs to come up big for the Yankees and he is certainly capable. He has to keep the ball in the ballpark. But if he struggles early, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phelpda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">David Phelps</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowede01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Derek Lowe</a></strong> are two good options. This pick is predicated on the belief that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe Saunders</a></strong> cannot hold the Yankees down.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Tigers over the Athletics</u>: Hate making this pick. The A's have been such a fun story and last night was killer. But they get <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Verlander</a></strong>, and while Verlander is not a god, he is quite the mortal. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeja02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jarrod Parker</a></strong> is very good too. The A's only hope here is to have Parker match zeroes with Verlander and make it a bullpen game. If they can do that, they have a good chance. If it is close, one has to wonder if Leyland would go with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valvejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Valverde</a></strong> again.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 2-2</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post season: 6-10</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1339-1077 </div>

Game Picks - Thursday: October 11, 2012

What an incredible night of baseball. Except if you are a fan of the Orioles and Tigers. If so, much sympathies as all baseball fans, especi...

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Tired of offensive scapegoating in the playoffs

<div style="text-align: justify;">How do teams get to the playoffs? They usually get there by hitting the ball reasonably well and pitching the ball well. Each playoff team has its top pitchers and relievers lined up for a short series. Is it ever a surprise when dominant pitching happens? Heck, in two playoff games yesterday, nineteen innings were played by four teams and the batters went a combined 16 for 121. Oof. That is a .132 batting average combined for all four playoff teams in action yesterday. And yet, despite this reality, a few offensive players are scapegoats for their team's performances. It's stupid.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Take some of these guys who are pretty good players:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> - one for twelve.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Reddick</a></strong> - one for ten with six strikeouts.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a></strong> - one for nine with five strikeouts.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Jones</a></strong> - one for eight.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a></strong> - one for ten.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollima01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Matt Holliday</a></strong> - zero for seven.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cozarza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Zack Cozart</a></strong> - one for twelve</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pencehu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hunter Pence</a></strong> - one for twelve</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scutama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Marco Scutaro</a></strong> - one for twelve</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Offense is difficult in the post season. The Giants as a team are batting .126. The Orioles are batting .227. The Tigers, .234 and the A's, .198. And yet, only some of these players listed above will get singled out and lambasted for their performances. What's with that?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">We are dealing with small sample sizes and crap shoot scenarios. We have no business making any offensive player in this situation a scapegoat. For example, Prince Fielder is one for twelve. He has only struck out once. So his BABIP is .091. That is not a BABIP you would ever see over a long period of time. It is a fluke.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And even for a kid like Bryce Harper who has struck out a lot, look at the pitch charts on Brooks Baseball and see how good the pitching has been against him. This is the playoffs! The pitchers are good!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And yet, nearly every single website and newspaper that covers the Yankees (including the one this Fan writes for) is all over Alex Rodriguez for his nine measly at bats. Bryce Harper is accused of being anxious by a well-respected writer and is <a href="http://network.yardbarker.com/author/article_external/11913625?headline=bryce_harper_disrespects_hall_of_fame_baseball_writer&sport_name=mlb" target="_blank">speared</a> for having a negative response to such a stupid question.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The criticism is unfair. Everything that happens in the post season are random events packed into a tight space. With a million bloggers fighting for attention, these random events become magnified all out of proportion. If you don't want <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Derek Jeter</a></strong> over-glorified for his four for nine performance, than you cannot overdo the villain aspect of Alex Rodriguez.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Such blatant over-blaming also influences fan bases who are ever more informed and gobble up articles about their favorite teams. When they read this kind of hyper-criticism, they buy into it and boo and jeer their own players instead of creating an environment of support and cheering their hearts out. It is wrong, writers. Wrong!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It seems that most of the top analysts in the industry such as Dave Cameron and others, forget all about trying to calculate what happens in the post season. The sample sizes are too darn small. Once the post season starts, all you can do is sit back and see what all the randomness brings you. This reduces us to being mere spectators and fans of the events that are happening in front of us. And perhaps that is how it should be.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div>

Tired of offensive scapegoating in the playoffs

How do teams get to the playoffs? They usually get there by hitting the ball reasonably well and pitching the ball well. Each playoff team h...

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Game Picks - Tuesday: October 9, 2012

<!-- NOTE: some names the b-r linker matched have multiple, possible player id matches. Leave this as is or search for "results=" to select a desired player/id pairing. You may remove this comment. --> Once again, success picking the outcomes of the post seasons games seem elusive. After another 1-1 night, the post season picks stand at 4-6. The Cardinals were correctly picked, which seems really strange to type. That team's offense exploded and showed why they are the best offense in the National League. Their win split that series at one game a piece with the Nationals as the series heads now to Washington.<br /><br />The Orioles played a terrific, near flawless game against the Yankees and evened up that series at one game apiece. Oriole pitching, especially in big situations, did a terrific job of pitching on the margins and not in the middle of the plate and the Orioles won, 3-2. That pick, of course, was incorrect. Those two teams will now go to New York to finish up that series in Yankee Stadium.<br /><br />There are two playoff games today and both could result in series wins for the Tigers and the Reds. The Reds will try to close it out at home and the Tigers must do so at Oakland. Here are Tuesday's picks:<br /><br /><ul><li>The Reds over the Giants: The Giants have not been able to generate any offense as they had little to begin with and the Reds' pitching has been terrific. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baileho02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Homer Bailey</a></strong> closed out the season with a no-hitter, so you'd be able to say that he is hitting his stride in his career. The Giants try to stay alive behind <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vogelry01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Ryan Vogelsong</a></strong>, a pitcher who struggled down the stretch and who doesn't pitch as well on the road as he does at home. His road ERA is a full run higher than his home ERA. The Reds move on and the Giants go home.</li><li>The Tigers over the Athletics: The A's are up against the wall here and will have the benefit of their home fans. But the Tigers simply seem to be too much for the A's to handle. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Anibal Sanchez</a></strong> is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and will use that big ballpark to his advantage. The A's meanwhile, turn to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=anderbr04,anders002bre&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Brett Anderson</a></strong>, who, when healthy, is one heck of a pitcher. But is he healthy? Will he be rusty? How long can he pitch? Anderson is a long shot, but he can pull it off. This game is really a tough one to call.</li></ul><br />Yesterday: 1-1<br />Post season: 4-6<br />Season: 1,337-1,073

Game Picks - Tuesday: October 9, 2012

Once again, success picking the outcomes of the post seasons games seem elusive. After another 1-1 night, the post season picks stand at...

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Game Picks - Monday: October 8, 2012

<div style="text-align: justify;"><!-- NOTE: some names the b-r linker matched have multiple, possible player id matches. Leave this as is or search for "results=" to select a desired player/id pairing. You may remove this comment. --> Yesterday was a glorious day of baseball as four playoff games happened and allowed us to watch baseball from noon to midnight. The only sad part was a rain delay in Baltimore that caused one of the games to be shifted to TNT. So the remote came in handy to go back and forth. It was a fun day of highly charged baseball.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The playoff picks did not improve here though. Two were correct. Two were incorrect. So the post season is still in the red in total. The Yankees won the improbable way by teeing off on <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsji04.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jim Johnson</a></strong>, who had been untouchable all season. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arroybr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Bronson Arroyo</a></strong> had great stuff and pitched one-hit ball for seven innings while <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong> and company could not get it done against the Reds' offense. That pick was wrong. The bullpen that got the Cardinals so far last season gave them a loss last night as the Nationals, in their first playoff game ever, showed no signs of being overwhelmed. And the Tigers put the Athletics in a 2-0 hole in the series and in deep trouble with a walk-off win.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Two games are scheduled today. In a move that is only inspired by ratings and money and not by common sense, the Cardinals and Reds, an hour behind the east coast in time zones, get the early game and the Yankees - Orioles play at eight o'clock. That simply ensures that those two teams' fans have to stay up well past bedtimes in order to watch. Well done, baseball. Well done. Hope you choke on those network dollars.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Monday's Columbus Day playoff picks:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Cardinals over the Nationals</u>: Both <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jordan Zimmermann</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jaime Garcia</a></strong> had rough outings earlier in the season against the team they are facing today. But Jaime Garcia is usually outstanding at home and should  allow his team to score a few runs off of Zimmerman. Garcia neutralizes Harper too.</li><li style="text-align: justify;"><u>The Yankees over the Orioles</u>: So the Orioles are down a game to the Yankees in the series. That is familiar territory to them. So they won't panic or anything. But let's say this: Even if he is forty years old, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pettian01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andy Pettitte</a></strong> is the winningest pitcher in the history of post season baseball. Pettitte is also brilliant at limiting damage despite not having the best stuff around. The Orioles are forced to go with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Wei-Yin Chen</a></strong> who has no playoff experience and seemed to wear down toward the end of the season. Chen is left-handed though which gives the Yankees a slightly less deadly lineup. Though <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=nunezed02,nunez-003edu&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eduardo Nunez</a></strong> at DH is an immense upgrade over <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andruw Jones</a></strong>.</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yesterday: 2-2</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Post Season: 3-5</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Season: 1336-1072 </div>

Game Picks - Monday: October 8, 2012

Yesterday was a glorious day of baseball as four playoff games happened and allowed us to watch baseball from noon to midnight. The only...

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