Flipping the Marlon Byrd revisited

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a data-mce-href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/10/whiffing-wonders-flipping-marlon-byrd.html" href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/10/whiffing-wonders-flipping-marlon-byrd.html" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Yesterday</a><span style="font-size: small;"> I wrote about </span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Marlon Byrd</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> and the fact that he did something no other player has ever done before by striking out 150 times more than he walked. I did mention that Byrd did have a good offensive season. But my over-arching point was that he could have done better sans the strikeouts. That post was syndicated by </span><a data-mce-href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/10/02/whiffing-wonders-flipping-a-marlon-byrd/#idc-container" href="http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2014/10/02/whiffing-wonders-flipping-a-marlon-byrd/#idc-container" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank"><em style="border: none; color: #444444; line-height: 1.5;">It's About the Money</em></a><span style="font-size: small;">, the other site I write for. And one of my favorite commenters had this to say: "</span><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> struck out 101 times more than he walked. Somehow I doubt the Angels are getting their underwear in a twist over that." Interesting point. Let's look at it for a second.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Certainly Mike Trout had an MVP season. I cannot imagine him not winning the award this season. The Angels also ended up with the best record in the Major Leagues, so, no, the Angels do not have much to complain about. Trout led the league in runs batted in and runs scored. According to all of that, the Angels should be ecstatic. But that doesn't mean the Angels aren't worried about the strikeouts.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My difficulty with the comment is that just because Mike Trout was the bomb again this year for the third straight year of brilliance on the field, it doesn't mean he could not have been better. The comment comes with certain assumptions.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The first assumption is that Trout's season was good enough just as it was. And I cannot argue that point. It was good enough to garner him an MVP and it was good enough for the Angels to be the best team in baseball during the regular season. But the assumption is also wrong because as scary as this sounds, Trout could have been much better with, say, a hundred less strikeouts.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The second assumption is that the sudden jump in strikeouts for Trout is not a concern. I totally disagree there. When his strikeout rate the previous two seasons were 21.8% and 19% respectively, then jumping to 26.1% is a big concern. The problem I am having is that his plate discipline and swinging strike rates did not change much from his previous two seasons. That said, it could be just a fluke and he will return to his normal rate of the previous two seasons. But what if it wasn't?</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's say this new strikeout rate is the new norm for Trout moving forward. It will impact things for Trout and for the Angels in future years when the Angels have to fight more for the post season and Trout has other competition for post season awards. Trout winning the MVP with a .939 OPS will be the third lowest OPS to win the award since 2000. He will have challengers in the years ahead.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">My contention is still that as good as Trout was in 2014, it could have been better with less strikeouts and more contact. Most people assume that power hitters would not hit more homers with less strikeouts and that strikeouts are the trade off for the power. I just don't buy that. If a power hitter makes contact and puts more balls in play, then the power numbers will not go down and would probably go up even higher.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Stating anything else would be to assume that being defensive with two strikes would lead to weaker contact and not more homers. Again, I am not biting. Mike Trout did hit 14 of his homers with two strikes. But surely (please don't call me Shirley) if Trout put the ball in play eighty to a hundred more times a few more would go over the fence.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And even if it didn't, with the BABIP being pretty well established at .291 for the Major Leagues with two strikes, Trout's OPS would be closer to one with 25 to 29 more hits that would result in putting the ball in play.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I realize that I am flying in the face of the "an out is an out" crowd made up of really smart people. I cannot let go of the idea that such outs are not equal. A strikeout leaves no possibility of getting on base. A batted ball will always lead to a 30% chance of getting on base. As good as Mike Trout was in 2014, it was not as good as his 2012 and 2013 seasons and the strikeouts were the number one reason.</span></div>

Flipping the Marlon Byrd revisited

Yesterday  I wrote about  Marlon Byrd  and the fact that he did something no other player has ever done before by striking out 150 times mor...

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The Angels have a chance in the AL West

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The news this spring from the AL West has been interesting to say the least. While nobody should ever discount the Athletics again, the Rangers have three starters with various ailments and question marks behind them. The Mariners got Cano, who now wants the general manager's job, but have Iwakuma and Walker hurting. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the state of California on the West Coast of the USA in North America on Planet Earth just might be able to do some business here.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">That opinion might sound a bit whacked for a team that just finished a miserable season at 78-84 with a -4 run differential. Their pitching was abysmal and two big splash free agents, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Josh Hamilton</a></strong> were invisible. But even ZiPS has the team winning 85 games in 2014, good enough for a first place finish in the division. Is that realistic?</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">There are three keys to the Angels being able to rebound in 2014. The first is what contributions the team gets from the aforementioned Pujols and Hamilton. The second is if the starting rotation can be better. And the third is the bullpen. Let's take a look at each one of these keys individually.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">Pujols and Hamilton</strong></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Things have not started well for Josh Hamilton as he cannot even get out of the gate in Spring Training with a calf issue. You never like to see a player not be able to start his preparatory part of the season behind. But a calf is not the most serious of injuries and eventually, Hamilton should get his season underway. But what kind of season will it be?</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">ZiPS has him at 2.3 WAR with only 6 runs above average on offense. Other projections systems have anywhere from a win and a half to 2.7. Those pessimistic numbers are understandable with the season Hamilton had in 2013 that lead to a career low, 1.9 fWAR.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">But there are two things to consider. First, Hamilton was much better in the second half with a .344 wOBA compared to .302 in the first half. While that second half wOBA is not where his career has been, it is higher than any of the projection systems predict for him. I do not expect a return to his glory days in Texas, but a .350 wOBA is not out of the question.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Then there is Albert Pujols. How soon we forget that Pujols was the best player on the planet during his first ten years. While regression is natural, his fall off in production the last two to three years seems unnatural. His wheels were never right since 2011 and without a solid base beneath a batter, the batter cannot do what he once did.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Pujols stubbornly played through the pain until reason finally prevailed and he was shut down after just a partial season a year ago. All indications are that he is healthy. I think he has one more great year in him. I have already mentioned in another post that in Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections, Albert Pujols was projected to have the highest offensive score.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">They are alone in that assessment, however. Other projection systems range from 1.5 WAR (no way) to 3.8. His wOBA projections go from .336 to .366. His career average is .420. Woof. I will go out on a limb here and predict a .380 wOBA for Pujols in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">If Pujols and Hamilton play even close to what I have predicted, they will make that lineup more dynamic and make <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> even better.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;">The Rotation</strong></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">In the last four years, only 22 pitchers have started more than 120 games and compiled over ten WAR. The Angels have two of them in <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jered Weaver</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsocj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsocj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">C.J. Wilson</a></strong>. That said, Weaver scored 5.7 fWAR in each of 2010 and 2011 and did not equal that total for his last two seasons combined. His strikeout rate has come down and he has lost three MPH on his fastball.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">All that said, there is just something about Jered Weaver to believe that he will find a way. The projection systems agree (mostly) and have him in the mid-threes range. That seems reasonable and solid to me.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">I have to admit that I was surprised by C.J. Wilson's season a year ago. He was really good for the Angels and was one of the most pleasant stories of their lost season. He cut down on his walk rate, kept the ball in the park better and his 3.51 FIP was quite impressive. It changed my opinion of him and my worries about his durability since changing from a closer to a starter have been unfounded. He has been as durable as they come. He should be in the ballpark of where he was a year ago.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The rest of the rotation last year was putrid. Williams, Blanton and Hanson stunk up the joint. Only Blanton of those three remain and if he makes the rotation, nobody will be more surprised than me. The depth charts show a rotation of Weaver, Wilson, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Garrett Richards</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/skaggty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/skaggty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Tyler Skaggs</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santihe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santihe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Hector Santiago</a></strong>. On paper, that is a much more solid rotation than last year.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Skaggs and Santiago were obtained in a big three-team trade that cost them <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mark Trumbo</a></strong> and a minor league pitcher. That is a great deal for the Angels. Pujols will make up for Trumbo's offense and Skaggs and Santiago have to be better than Blanton and Hanson.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Tyler Skaggs never really got going with the Diamondbacks, but that is a tough place to pitch. He had success in the minors that even the projection systems believe will translate to the Angels.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Hector Santiago had a 3.51 ERA as a starter last year for the lousy White Sox team. It should have been better, but it looks like he ran out of gas towards the end of the season and got roughed up a bit in the second half. The experience should put him in good stead for this year and at the very least, should make him one of the better fifth starters in the AL West. Anything would be an improvement over Blanton. Geez.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">All in all, the rotation is in much better shape in my opinion. Richards can take the next step and Skaggs and Santiago should be better than what was around last year following a very good 1-2 combo.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;"><b>The Bullpen</b></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">This bullpen still worries me. I am not a big fan of Ernesto Friari. His tendency to give up the long ball is frightening. But his strikeout rate is among the best and if he can do better at not delivering the soul-sucking homers, he could be very good.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">The rest of the cast looks just so-so. But I do not worry much about bullpens, especially this time of year. A struggling bullpen is the easiest thing to fix during a season and if the Angels are not comfortable with what they have, lots of cuts by other teams could give them some options at the end of Spring Training.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">If the Angels have weaknesses other than what we talked about, it would be at the catcher position and I think <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Raul Ibanez</a></strong> was a stretch as is the pick up of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=penaca01,pena--006car&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=penaca01,pena--006car&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Carlos Pena</a></strong>. The depth is not there and if bodies go down, the Angels could struggle again.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">But all things being equal and somewhat healthy, is this team eight wins better than last year? I think so. Is that enough to beat the Athletics? I'm not so sure. I do believe Angel fans will have a lot more fun this summer.</div>

The Angels have a chance in the AL West

The news this spring from the AL West has been interesting to say the least. While nobody should ever discount the Athletics again, the Rang...

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Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at projections is a fun way to pass the time. Whether you do this for fantasy baseball purposes or--if you are like me and do not play fantasy--just for the fun of it, There is a lot of stuff to sort through and ponder. Projection systems are difficult to wrap your head around because some project actual playing time and others assume everyone is going to get 550 plate appearances. The latter, I suppose, is helpful in case a player breaks out in Spring Training and ends up as a starter (which rarely happens). What I thought I would do on this Sunday afternoon was cull through the various projection systems and determine who the five least valuable players would be in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Such an exercise is harder than you think. First, I have an artificial number of projected plate appearances of 450. I want to consider starters and not part-time players. Secondly, I have to figure out which of these players will actually get the playing time he is projected to obtain. For example, one of the lowest rated was <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brett Wallace</a></strong>. But he was just DFA'd by the Astros and doesn't figure to catch on with a full-time gig anywhere else. And lastly, most of the projection systems have to agree on the lack of value a player will have in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">After making my list, a discussion on the merits of each will occur. Think of it as sort of an over/under type discussion. For disclosure sake, I used PECOTA, Steamer, Oliver and Fans projections. I used MLB Depth Charts to confirm possible playing time.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Okay, the list:</div><ol style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Garrett Jones</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.23 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Raul Ibanez</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.3 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mitch Moreland</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.55 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adeiny Hechavarria</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.65 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Ludwick</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.78 WAR</li></ol><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Garrett Jones - Jones holds one of the most extreme L/R splits in the Majors with less than a .600 OPS against left-handed pitching and in the high .878 against right-handed pitchers. He is penciled in as the platoon partner with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeff Baker</a></strong> at first base. That would be a good thing for Jones as he is capable of hitting more than twenty homers. If he can field first base at near league-average level, he could score 2.0 in WAR. If he plays full time or spends any time in the outfield, all bets are off.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Raul Ibanez - The projections are logical since Ibanez is 41 years old and should never wear a glove. But the Angels only need him as a DH and have plenty of outfielders. So unlike last year in Seattle, Ibanez should only be a DH. That said, will he get 400 plate appearances? He won't if he is platooned (and he should be). Based on offense alone, he could get 1.5 in WAR.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Mitch Moreland - Moreland has no home at first base with the Rangers' addition of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong>. MLB Depth Charts has him listed as the Rangers' DH. Plus, he has spent plenty of time in the outfield too. Moreland's career doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I think these projections are pretty money.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Adeiny Hechavarria - Not only is his name a bear to spell, but he was awful for the Marlins last season. And still, he is pegged as their starting shortstop again this year. I don't think he will ever hit and a sub-.300 on-base percentage could be his norm. He gets bonus WAR points for his "important position" on the field, but doesn't score all that well as a fielder. If he reaches 1.0 in WAR in 2014, it will be a surprise.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Ryan Ludwick - I kept hearing last year that the Reds will be okay once Ludwick comes back from injury. And it made me scratch my head. Yeah, he had a pretty good 2012, but that is the anomaly for him over the past five seasons. The Reds have him penciled in as the starting left-fielder. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky scenario for them. He is not great in the field, and 2012 aside, his bat has been missing since his days with the Cardinals. I think his projection is fair. His positional ranking hurts him, his fielding hurts him and I don't see him repeating 2012 for offensive production.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">There you have it. The projections have spoken. But of course, nobody knows how any player's season will go until he actually plays the games.</div>

Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at ...

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Can Hamilton and Pujols bounce back?

<div style="text-align: justify;">When <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Robinson Cano</a></strong> signed his mega-deal with the Seattle Mariners, the two names that came up most often in stories and comparisons were <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Hamilton</a></strong>. The two recent free agent sweepstakes winners were used as the counterweight of what can go wrong with signing long-term deals to players past their primes. Instead of "Remember the Maine" being used as a battle cry, we heard, "Remember Pujols and Hamilton." Forget the money for a moment. The two Angel players are going to get paid insane amounts of money. There is nothing to be done about that fact. But can they come back in 2014 and contribute?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's start with Josh Hamilton. Unlike Pujols, Hamilton appeared to be healthy in 2013. He played in 151 games, which, when it comes to Hamilton's past injury history, you would have taken gladly. But he did not produce and became all but forgotten in the grand scheme of things. His wOBA of .319 (OPS+ of 108) was the lowest of his career. His 21 homers were half of his 2012 season. His lack of luster in play led him to become, along with Pujols, the symbol of all that had gone wrong for the Angels.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So what went wrong? For one, he did not enjoy success hitting at home. After successful years hitting at Rangers Ballpark and putting up a career .964 OPS there, Hamilton could only muster a triple slash line at Angel Stadium of .236/.289/.401. That paltry .690 OPS at home compares pretty snugly to the career .717 OPS for his career in that ballpark. Sometimes you have to wonder if agents and players think about ballparks when considering offers. It is clear that Angel Stadium is not conducive to Hamilton's success.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hamilton hit much better on the road. And while his .787 road OPS is much better, it is still below his standards. So what else went wrong then?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">One key statistic is his pitch value against the fastball. In his two great years in Texas, his fastball pitch values were over 30 runs per season. In his lesser years there, his values against the fastball were still fearsome at 19.0 and 18.4 runs above average in 2011 and 2012. That plummeted to only 5.7 runs above average in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While he used to kill fastballs, Hamilton held his own against other pitch types. But in 2013, the slider killed him. While never previously finishing below -2.4 runs against that pitch and often scoring above average in most other years, Hamilton had a pitch value against the slider of -12.7 runs. Wow!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Word gets around on such things and pitchers exploited Hamilton with the slider. He saw the pitch 19.5% in 2013, the highest of his career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The real thing most people talk about when it comes to Hamilton is his free-swinging ways. Much has been made about his O-swing rate or the rate Hamilton swings at pitches out of the strike zone. Fangraphs.com rates Hamilton's increase in doing so way more than PitchF/X does, which makes you wonder which one is more accurate.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you believe Fangraphs, then his O-swing rate the last three years has gone through the roof. But if you believe PitchF/X, then he had a one-year blip in 2012 and his rate in 2013 was near his career norms.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whichever is correct, there is no denying that Hamilton has no plate discipline. When a 30% O-swing rate or lower is the ideal, then Hamilton's PitchF/X career average of 39% is not good and never has been. But Hamilton produced despite that fact until 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So is he done then as a productive player? I have a hard time making that pronouncement. If you look at his career, he has always had swings in his years. 2009 was otherworldly and then 2010 was not. In fairness, there was some injury problems there.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is a little hope in that his second half of 2013 was much better than his first half. And he finished real strong in September, though it is troubling that his homer total fell off in the second half. Hamilton's batting average and on-base percentage improved dramatically in the second half, but his first half contained more power.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">While there is hope that Hamilton bounces back in 2014, I don't expect it. Half of his games are in a ballpark where he has never seemed comfortable at the plate. Unless he can adjust to the slider pitchers are feeding him and get his groove back against fastballs, then Hamilton becomes an .800 OPS guy, which simply is not enough to help the Angels where they need to go.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So far the projections match my feelings that Albert Pujols will bounce back some in 2014. You have to assume that 2013's results were totally from injuries suffered to Albert's wheels. He tried to play and could barely walk, never mind run and still hit 17 homers in 99 games.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And yes, 2013 finished a three year arc of decline for Pujols that has seen his OPS fall from consistently over one to .906 his last year in St. Louis to .859 in 2012 and then .767 in 2013. I still believe much of 2012 and 2013's problems were health related but time will tell.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">All I know is that for Albert Pujols' first ten years, he was right up there with the greats of all time. At the age of 33, he only needs eight more homers for 500. In only 13 years, he has compiled over 2,300 hits and over a thousand extra base hits. Does a guy like that just fall into sheep dip? Maybe. Maybe not.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Like Hamilton, Pujols has fallen off against the fastball. He killed them in the past and fell off in his last year at St. Louis to half his previous value against fastballs and then that was cut in half again in 2013. Pujols never had negative values against any pitch type in his first ten years but was in the negative on three different pitch types in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Steamer and Oliver both project Pujols to bounce back somewhat in 2014. Though that bounce back will not get him back to where he was in his first ten years, it is still a projection that is optimistic that he will have some impact for the Angels.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Personally, I don't think Pujols is done as a player and I expect one or two more big seasons from him. I do believe his health has not been optimal since 2011. If he can come back feeling good in 2014, then people may be surprised by what he does. Heck, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/killeha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Harmon Killebrew</a></strong> had an MVP season at the age of 33 after a down season plagued by injury. That slugger followed his MVP season with another great one at the age of 34.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For the Angels, you know that (if he stays healthy) <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> is going to Mike Trout. But if Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols can recapture some of their past glory and give the phenom some support, 2014 might be a far better scene for the Angels than 2013 was. </div>

Can Hamilton and Pujols bounce back?

When Robinson Cano signed his mega-deal with the Seattle Mariners, the two names that came up most often in stories and comparisons were A...

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Mike Trout by the (MVP) numbers

<div style="text-align: justify;">Last season, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> took the world by storm and became the most talked about player in baseball. Sadly, this season, he is even better but plays on a severely disappointing team and has fallen away somewhat as a conversation leader. By the end of the season, he will bring up once again the age old debate on if an Most Valuable Player Award should go to a player on an awful team. Because of his team, he might lose out on the award he deserves for the second straight season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To illustrate the point, I am simply going to give you some numbers to give you an idea of how special Mike Trout has been. Here are a bunch of numbers and his corresponding rank in baseball based on them:</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">WAR - 7.6 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR: First in baseball either way</li><li style="text-align: justify;">wOBA - .424: Third</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Slugging - .574: Fifth</li><li style="text-align: justify;">OBP - .424: Third</li><li style="text-align: justify;">BA - .331: Third</li><li style="text-align: justify;">OPS - .998: Third</li><li style="text-align: justify;">wRC - 101: Second</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Doubles - 32: Third</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Hits - 143: First</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Walks - 67: Third</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Extra base hits - 59: Second</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Runs - 79: Tied for Second</li><li style="text-align: justify;">WPA - 3.40: Seventh</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Base running runs - 6.3: Fourth</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Stolen bases - 24: Tenth</li><li style="text-align: justify;">ISO - .243: Tenth</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;">As you can see by the numbers, Mike Trout can do it all. His fielding numbers have fallen off a bit, but otherwise, Mike Trout is the best overall player in the game this year. Now if only the Angels could get some pitching...</div>

Mike Trout by the (MVP) numbers

Last season, Mike Trout took the world by storm and became the most talked about player in baseball. Sadly, this season, he is even better...

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When Albert Pujols was better than Miguel Cabrera

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> is the best hitter in baseball. Pretty much everyone agrees with that assessment. Oh, you might get a few Votto votes, but Cabrera has pretty much dominated the offensive world for the past three seasons. It was not long ago when that title belonged to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Albert Pujols</a></strong>. The run Pujols put together in his first ten seasons rivaled any player that has ever played the game. It seems strange to say that now, doesn't it? Since his last season in St. Louis to his first two years for the Angels, Pujols seems a cut above ordinary. But even the great Miguel Cabrera could not match Pujols at his best.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you put their first ten years side by side, Pujols comes out on top in just about every category. Pujols had 98 more hits, 40 more doubles, 86 more homers, 205 more walks, 107 more runs driven in and over 200 more runs scored. In some bit of fairness, Pujols had 308 more plate appearances. But even then, there would have been no way for Cabrera to catch up to those numbers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is not knocking what Cabrera has done after his first ten years. This exercise is just to show how good Albert Pujols really was. Perhaps you might also argue that Cabrera had all those years with the lowly Marlins to depress his totals. Fair enough. Then just take Cabrera as a Tiger and compare it to Pujols' Cardinal years and he still cannot match what Pujols did.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For example, Cabrera has an amazing 161 OPS+ during his six years with the Tigers. Pujols was at 170 for his ten years with the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .404 on-base percentage with the Tigers. Pujols was at .420 for the Cardinals. Cabrera has a .585 slugging percentage with the Tigers. Pujols slugged .617 with the Cardinals. Heck, Pujols even stole more than 40 bases more than Cabrera in their first ten years as ballplayers in the majors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">About the only thing you can give Cabrera when comparing the two players through their first ten seasons is that he hit into nine less double plays.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The big question for the future is whether Cabrera can keep up the pace of his hitting longer than Pujols did. Since joining the Angels in his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons, Pujols has hit at an .825 OPS pace. That is so far below his career average that it seems like a totally different player. If you look at both players from their Age 27 seasons to their Age 30 seasons, they are too close to call.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Can Cabrera keep up the pace better than Pujols has? Or will he too decline dramatically a couple of seasons from now when he too hits his Age 32 and Age 33 seasons?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The one thing that gives Cabrera fans hope that he can maintain his peak longer than Pujols is that his trend is totally different. Take a look at their two wOBA charts from Fangraphs.com:</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR-6X7s5mgqJdELhQVPMa5VJPhTTZYbhasYrkgAhpglgNlCrTODgtvR9_Ue-ONTAyZIpWXoVZuF3ZhDzlg5biM8Eg0xZGcEtlyT06r_QAECi3cVwN8I2JlSgAZdAKLGjLU-ogDw5AHQAo/s1600/Pujols+woba+graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR-6X7s5mgqJdELhQVPMa5VJPhTTZYbhasYrkgAhpglgNlCrTODgtvR9_Ue-ONTAyZIpWXoVZuF3ZhDzlg5biM8Eg0xZGcEtlyT06r_QAECi3cVwN8I2JlSgAZdAKLGjLU-ogDw5AHQAo/s400/Pujols+woba+graph.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6qCkUrATnV8m_tCRnliFBp-ycbZo9kqZYiXvQJ2VWHqO_c_Eyc4VH6g5dBZKXTJvO5VcGarPfv1hskC6Rx74F5hPNmsNJrolLSHoO6fhaw_qug-_KARhSNgqDK9KnYlBtGSyVu1i9q2U/s1600/Cabrera+woba+graph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6qCkUrATnV8m_tCRnliFBp-ycbZo9kqZYiXvQJ2VWHqO_c_Eyc4VH6g5dBZKXTJvO5VcGarPfv1hskC6Rx74F5hPNmsNJrolLSHoO6fhaw_qug-_KARhSNgqDK9KnYlBtGSyVu1i9q2U/s400/Cabrera+woba+graph.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The top chart shows not only that Pujols had an amazing peak and hovered around the .400 wOBA mark for years, but also that there has been a sharp decline for four years now. On the bottom graph, or Cabrera's, the trend is up, up and away. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">That is not to say that Cabrera will not start to slow down as he goes past thirty like Pujols has. They have similar body types despite Pujols being more of a workout guy with less body fat. Let's just say that Cabrera is trending better and has a chance to stay better.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">While it is true that Albert Pujols has been a disappointment since joining the Angels, especially for that contract he signed, the other truth is that this generation of baseball fans has had a chance to see two of the really special careers in the history of baseball. Someday we will look back and reflect on both careers and say, "Man, they were awesome offensive players."</div>

When Albert Pujols was better than Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball. Pretty much everyone agrees with that assessment. Oh, you might get a few Votto votes, but ...

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Sitting Josh Hamilton was dumb

<div style="text-align: justify;">One more note on the Angels - Orioles game. As everyone knows, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Hamilton</a></strong> has been awful so far with the Angels after signing this huge contract. He is continuing his trend from last year at swinging at everything and is batting like .208 or something. And so his manager sat him yesterday against the Orioles. That was dumb.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Why was it dumb when Hamilton just went zero for four the previous game with three strikeouts? Because he was sat down when a right-handed pitcher was pitching and that pitcher happened to be <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=garcifr03,garcifr01&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Freddy Garcia</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yes, Garcia pitched a wonderful game. But let us not get too giddy here. At this point in his career, Freddy Garcia is a meatball pitcher. If you are expecting him to go six innings without him giving up a hit in the rest of his outings, you are expecting miracles.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I would have taken the odds that Josh Hamilton could have jacked one of those meatballs from Garcia. I would have jumped on that chance to give Hamilton an opportunity to crunch some baseballs. Instead, he was not playing.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I can see Hamilton getting a rest against a tough lefty or even a hard thrower. But against Freddy Garcia? Foolishness. Hamilton could have made a difference in that game. </div>

Sitting Josh Hamilton was dumb

One more note on the Angels - Orioles game. As everyone knows, Josh Hamilton has been awful so far with the Angels after signing this huge...

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Hank Conger is my new hero

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Angels lost another game yesterday. That was not surprising the way things have been going over there. But something did happen in the game that made me have a new hero. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/congeha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hank Conger</a></strong> beat the shift. And he provided one of the sillier moments of the season while doing so.</div><br />Here is the video in case you missed it. Click this <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=26852789&topic_id=11493214" target="_blank">link</a> if the video does not work:<br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=26852789&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Every team is now doing the shift thing against hitters known to pull the ball. Rarely if ever do you see a player just put a ball down the third base line to beat the shift. It drives me crazy. Do that five times or so and make the defense pay for their positioning. They are basically giving you a free hit. Why not take it?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hank Conger did. And it figured it would be Conger. He is not a big power guy. His slugging percentage is never going to wow anyone. So there is no pride that gets in the way. The argument against a power guy trying to beat a shift is that you could get four bases instead of one. But that argument makes no sense to me. The chance of hitting a homer is what, one out of fifteen even with a big slugger? So taking away his chance for a homer is negligible. But make the defense play honest now could increase your BABIP later. At least that is my argument.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hank Conger beat the shift. Hooray! He squared up like he was hitting a sacrifice bunt and put it down the third base way when nobody was there. Even an elder Molina would have beat that out.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But Conger almost did not beat it out. He started running. His feet were so excited about getting a base hit that they were beside themselves. I loved the first announcing team saying that he had happy feet. That was perfect. Conger tripped over himself and went sprawling to the ground. He still beat the play and was rewarded not only for his comedy, but for beating that darned shift.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Gosh, I wish more players would do it. Not the falling down part. That was fun. But I do not want anyone getting hurt. Hank Conger is my new hero because he beat the mighty shift. Watch and learn all you pull hitters.</div>

Hank Conger is my new hero

The Angels lost another game yesterday. That was not surprising the way things have been going over there. But something did happen in the g...

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Imagining a computer with personality computing Josh Hamilton's 2013 projection

<div style="text-align: justify;">Imagine, if you will, a computer with a personality and emotions like a human being. The computer is having a good day and has been cranking out projections with ease. The computer is popping Starburst candies and singing Katrina & The Waves', <i><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPUmE-tne5U" target="_blank">I'm Walking on Sunshine</a></i>. "This <i>is</i> a good day," the computer says to itself." After all, it is a computer and it knows it has been well fed by its data keepers. And then suddenly, the computer gets to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamiljo03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Hamilton</a></strong>'s data. Queue the sound of a record needle jagging  off a record. The computer spills water on itself. "What the bloody heck," the computer says as it jumps up from its office chair in shock and surprise.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cleaning the spilled water with a paper towel, the computer sits back down and frowns at the data. "This does not compute," it thinks. "90 games played, 156, 89, 133, 121, 148!?" The computer rolls up its sleeves. "How many stupid games is this guy going to play?" It runs the scenarios five different times and five different sets of numbers pop up varying from a low of 120 to a high of 147.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Let's try something easy," says the computer and brings up the data for the strikeout percentage. "Holy, mother of..." The computer accidentally snaps a pencil in half. It looks at the consistent flow of data from 2007 to 2011 and that looks okay. But then the number jumps to 25.5% in 2012. "How did that happen?" And so the computer loosens its tie and looks at the plate discipline information.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Okay, he was never the most patient of hitters and his swing and miss rate was always fairly high," it sees. But why did Josh Hamilton swing at everything in 2012!? 45.4%!? "He was swinging at everything!" The computer looks for strands of data that might indicate if there was an eye injury or something that could explain why Hamilton started swinging as soon as he got out of bed in the morning.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The computer dutifully ran the data several thousand times and felt a little better when the data settled down to anywhere from 21.9% to a high of 22.9%. "Okay, that's better. After all, that was this human's rate in 2009. This will work."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But the computer is working up a sweat by now. The tie comes off. He calls on the intercom for a coffee. The Starbursts get shoved into a desk drawer. It decides to look at this human's ISO. "What the..."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It sees the ISO numbers over the years fall all over the sandbox. .262 in 2007, .158 in 2009, .238 in 2011 and .292 in 2012. The computer starts thumping its chest to see if his data is flowing properly. How does it figure this mess out? The computations are run a few thousand times. They spit out .214 from its ZiPS computation. Frowning, the computer is not happy with such a low number after a .292 season and runs the data a few more thousand times using slightly different algorithmic sets. "Wait! Wait!" the computer shouts as .251 spits out followed by a .221, followed by .246.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Oh. Come. On. Now!"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The computer sits back and pictures the Rocky Mountains and then Lake Reno. It tries to regulate its breathing. After a while of doing this, the computer cracks its knuckles and repeats a mantra that everything is going to be okay. After all, it is just numbers and numbers don't lie. The computer decides to tackle on-base percentage. "This should be easy."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Trying to be dispassionate and look at the data impersonally, the computer sees a normal progression with two anomalous seasons in 2009 and 2010. "It's okay," says the computer, "We'll just throw those out." And it does. As it runs the algorithmic calculation, the computer is confident about this one. Suddenly, numbers start spitting out anywhere from .333 to .356 and everything in between. "What is wrong with me!?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">By now, the computer's shirt is untucked, the tie has been long discarded. The coffee has been drained and is empty despite how many times the computer brings the cup to its lips. Finally, in a moment of clarity, the computer sits back and thinks that a self-diagnosis is in order. Repeating its mantra over and over, the computer checks every one of its systems.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Everything seems normal. "Keep checking!" The computer goes into a trance-like state and tries to push its mind outside its body. Looking around at all its inputs and orifices, the computer finally spots something. "What is THAT?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Taking a closer look is difficult because what has been spotted is in the middle of its back. It keeps reaching around and cannot get to it. Rooting around its desk, the computer finally spies a pair of tweezers and reaches around. Using the mirror for a guide, the tweezers slowly inch to the target. Finally, "I got it!"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">As the offending particles are brought around to where the computer can inspect them, a puzzled look and a frown creases its face. "Chewing tobacco??" What the heck does that mean?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The computer sits back heavily in its chair and creates an email that it sends to Szymborski. The short e-mail reads as follows: "Josh Hamilton: you're on your own on this one, Dude." </div>

Imagining a computer with personality computing Josh Hamilton's 2013 projection

Imagine, if you will, a computer with a personality and emotions like a human being. The computer is having a good day and has been cranking...

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Coming to grips with antipathy for Jered Weaver

<div style="text-align: justify;">I need to deal with this intense dislike I have for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jered Weaver</a></strong>. I have not had this kind of dislike for a player since the earlier days of Chipper of the Braves and before that, Yaz of the Red Sox. The latter two I came to appreciate as--in the end--their body of work was worthy of respect and admiration. But I'm not there yet with Weaver and it is time to deal with it because he is one of the better pitchers of his generation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Why do I dislike Weaver so intensely? Is there ever really a rhyme or reason for such feelings? It just is. Oh, I can say it is because of the way his temper boils over from time to time and has created scenes of anarchy. But I loved Clemens and he did that too. I can say it is his body language that seems to flip the bird at the world with everything he does. But so did Pedro when he was on the mound and I liked him. Maybe he suffers from memories of his brother, Jeff, who still fills my mind with nightmares.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">No, there is no rational reason for hating Jered Weaver. It's just a thing that exists and looks for justification. It does not allow for a rational discourse of his pitching ability and performances. I cannot write about him fairly or with any kind of objectivity. How can I pull that off when I simply hate the guy?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But then there is his record. Since he began his career as a starter with the Angels in 2006, he has won 66.2 percent of his starts. His career ERA of 3.24 has been under 3.00 in each of the last two seasons. Those two seasons saw him go 38-13. Those are clearly some really impressive numbers.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And the way those numbers have been accumulated have been nearly as impressive. He is not a fireballing pitcher with a 95 MPH heater. He is not a ground ball savant. In fact, his ground ball to fly ball ratio of 0.70 for his career is among the lowest of his peers. And yet, only eight percent of those fly balls go over the fence and the last two seasons, his BABIPs have been insane at .250 and .241 respectively. In fact, his BABIP against has been an astounding .270 for his career. So clearly he induces a lot of useless contact.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Weaver's WHIP the last three seasons have been 1.074, 1.010 and 1.018 respectively. That is pretty darned impressive. He has improved his walk rate to only 2.1 per nine innings the last two seasons and his career strikeout to walk ratio is 3.17. All of those numbers are terrific.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Weaver has made at least 30 starts for five straight seasons, making him extremely durable despite being slight of stature with a violent throwing motion. He has earned respect for the way he has pitched no matter how much I dislike the guy.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Putting all feelings aside, there is a bit of a concern at how long he can stay as effective as he has been. His velocity has dipped a mile per hour in each of his last two seasons. You would think that violent, all-or-nothing pitching motion would catch up to him eventually. His long-term contract with the Angels seemed questionable at the time and still does due to these concerns.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But what will be will be and for right now, Jered Weaver has been a premier pitcher since he arrived on the scene for the Angels. His record speaks for itself. I acknowledge that I cannot get over my dislike for the guy. But at least admitting to how good he is will exonerate me just a little bit. </div>

Coming to grips with antipathy for Jered Weaver

I need to deal with this intense dislike I have for Jered Weaver . I have not had this kind of dislike for a player since the earlier days ...

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From the department of meh - Alberto Callaspo

<div style="text-align: justify;">The off-seasons is filled with the news of signings. As such, MLB Rumors never gets shut down on this computer. Some of those signings bring a stir of interest as a team will sign a budding star to a contract to avoid arbitration or an interesting free agent that might make the team out of Spring Training. But an awful lot of them are of the kind that leave you simply making a mental checklist of the event. These are the "department of meh" signings. This week's main candidate was the two year contract the Angels gave <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/callaal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Alberto Callaspo</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Now Callaspo is not without his usefulness. Since he has moved to third base, he has become a good fielder there and his last two seasons have shown his walk rate to record its highest numbers of his career as he has suddenly become a very patient hitter. For example, he only swung at pitches out of the strike zone less than twenty percent of the time in 2012.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But those two facts above are the only two reasons to have any kind of warmth for him as a player. When you think of third basemen, you think of guys with at least a little bit of thump. Guys like Headley for the Padres, Longoria for the Rays, Wright for the Mets and Beltre for the Rangers. Thump is not a word you would ever associate with Alberto Callaspo. He hit twenty doubles in 2012 with ten homers. He has a career ISO of .108. Compare that to Beltre's .196 or even Lowrie, the A's new third baseman, whose career ISO is .177.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It is this lack of thump along with a series of seasons of offensive ups and downs that have kept Callaspo as one of the weaker offensive performers for his career. That career now spans since 2006 with four full seasons and three partial ones. For his career, Fangraphs gives him a -7.7 score as an offensive player (runs above replacement). Baseball-reference.com gives him a big fat zero, so that site is more bullish.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If we go by the Fangraphs number and look at all batters in that same time frame, Alberto Callaspo ranks 268th among his peers in baseball for offense. He is tied at that number with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bartlja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jason Bartlett</a></strong>. Just above him is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blaloha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Hank Blalock</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sweenry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ryan Sweeney</a></strong>. So yeah, that is hardly impressive company.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And so that means that all of his value as a player, the value that leads the Angels to shell out just a shade under $9 million for his next two seasons, comes from his glove and his positional or replacement value. Those figures calculated by the stat sites make sense most of the time, but personally, whenever a player's entire value comes from his glove and from the positional value of the position he plays, that is a bit of an off-put here.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">According to Fangraphs' valuation system, that salary comes in below what he was worth to the Angels as a player in each of the last two seasons. There is no argument here on how their valuation system works. But when a guy is a negative, or at best, a league average offensive player (depending on the site), is not a great base runner, then paying for just his glove and his position hardly seems attractive. No doubt, it could be worse. He could have a meh glove too. But his contract would present just a bit more interest if some of his value at least came from offense. </div>

From the department of meh - Alberto Callaspo

The off-seasons is filled with the news of signings. As such, MLB Rumors never gets shut down on this computer. Some of those signings bring...

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Vernon Wells - Anatomy of a career's death

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Vernon Wells</a></strong> was drafted in the first round with the fifth overall pick of the 1997 draft. His first full season for the Toronto Blue Jays showed promise in 2002 when he drove in a hundred runs. His star exploded in 2003 when he led the league in hits, doubles and total bases. After two middling seasons in 2004 and 2005, he again had a terrific season in 2006. He rallied for decent seasons in 2008 and 2010. But he never became the superstar 2003 promised. His last two seasons have been so bad that Wells has become a symbol of sorts of what can go wrong with a career and a GM decision. What this post will attempt to show is that the signs were there all the time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Toronto Blue Jays general manager, Alex Anthopoulos, was heralded as a genius when he was able to unload Wells on the Angels an off season move before the 2011 season. The move has probably been the most mocked trade since <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Babe Ruth</a></strong>. It cost then Angels' GM, Tony Reagins, his career and led to the hiring of Dipoto. Dipoto, who has a reputation for using the new metrics from the analytic world most likely have never done the Wells deal if he was in office at the time.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And that is because there have been signs since 2004 that Vernon Wells had serious flaws in this game. In his early years (2002, 2003), Wells had good line drive rates which led to league average BABIP rates. But the flaw of his game in those years was a lack of taking walks. In his first three seasons, his walk rates were 4.9, 4.2 and 5.7 percent respectively.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His walk rates rose by a couple of points in subsequent seasons while his career lost some of its luster. So that really is not a smoking gun even though his last three seasons have seen his walk rates again plummet and even worse, his O-Swing rates rise dramatically.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">What Tony Reagins should have seen and what Alex Anthopoulos undoubtedly saw was that there were several items in Wells' stats that showed that a little less bat speed would accelerate these hidden problems to the point that he would start tumbling to the point of uselessness.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Okay, these stats have been hinted at for long enough. Let's get to them. Two of them are striking. The first is that since 2004 and with a minimum of 5,000 plate appearances, Vernon Wells has had the highest infield popup rate in baseball. There is nobody even close. Damon is second and almost a percentage point and a half behind Wells. And this is not something that is new in Wells' career that suddenly rears its head. It has always been there. Wells never had a season where this rate was less than 12.2% and most years it was much higher. His career rate is 16.3% and that is what it has been since 2004.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It was mentioned earlier in this piece that Wells started his career with good line drive percentages. His first full season of 2002 showed a line drive percentage of 24.4% and his terrific season of 2003 showed a line drive percentage of 21.6%. But starting in 2004, his line drive proficiency dried up. And again, if we look at all players since 2004 with at least 5,000 plate appearances, nobody has a lower line drive percentage than Vernon Wells. Since 2004, his line drive percentage is 16.6%. And since 2009, his line drive percentages have been particularly woeful: 14.8, 15.9, 12.3 and 15.7.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Though those line drive percentages have been particularly bad in the last four years, the signs started way back in 2004 as they never again came close to his 2002 and 2003 seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Add the low line drive percentage to the high popup to the infield percentage and you have a recipe for a low BABIP and again, continuing the theme of looking at 2004 to today and nobody with 5,000 plate appearances since that time have had a lower BABIP than Vernon Wells.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Combine a low BABIP, low line drive percentage, high popup rate and the fact that he puts a lot of balls in play thanks to low walk and strikeout rates and you have a recipe for the death of a once promising career.Wells had once improved his plate discipline to respectable levels but in the last three years, that discipline has gone out the window meaning even less good contact than before.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">These numbers put the nail in two coffins. The first was Reagins' who should have seen these and the second was in the Blue Jays before Anthopoulos who gave him this massive, intractable contract that makes the whole story worse.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Angels have tried to shop Wells all winter. But in today's day and age with analysts in front offices, nobody is going to make the same mistake the Angels did. They are stuck with a player who once looked like he was heading to a superstar career. Instead, he turned into the conversation of worst trades and contracts of all time. </div>

Vernon Wells - Anatomy of a career's death

Vernon Wells was drafted in the first round with the fifth overall pick of the 1997 draft. His first full season for the Toronto Blue Jays...

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Hanson just adds to the Angels' rotation question marks

<div style="text-align: justify;">The Angels of a year ago went into the season with their rotation feted as the strength of the team. Yes, they went out and got Pujols, and no one knew Trout was going to explode the way he did. The rotation was what impressed everyone. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weaveje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jered Weaver</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harenda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dan Haren</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsocj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">C.J. Wilson</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ervin Santana</a></strong> were considered a formidable top four and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jerome Williams</a></strong> was a cut above for a fifth starter. But the rotation did not work out as most expected.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Weaver was as good as ever, but Haren had health problems and was not as effective after the early part of the season. Wilson seemed rather ordinary for most of the season and Santana struggled early and often in the season. Jerome Williams could not stay healthy. And even <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong> picked up late in the season could not help the team reach the playoffs in what has become a very tough division.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">With Haren, Santana and Greinke all gone this off season, the Angels needed to rebuild a bit and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hansoto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tommy Hanson</a></strong> ended up being their target. Knowing the Angels, they might not be done working to improve themselves, but Hanson was a pretty bold statement. After all, Hanson is only 25 years old and started his career with three straight seasons with a WHIP of under 1.2.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But Hanson adds another layer of question marks. He did not have the same sort of season for the Braves last season. His WHIP ballooned to 1.454 and for the first time in his career, he gave up more hits than innings pitched. He also gave up home runs at an alarming rate.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Angels really did not give up much to get Hanson. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/waldejo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jordan Walden</a></strong> will cross the river to get baptized in someone else's pond. He joins an already deep bullpen for the Braves. But he had lost his closer role to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frierer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ernesto Frieri</a></strong> and it was apparent that the Angels did not trust him on the mound.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Knowing the little return the Braves allowed themselves to unload Hanson, you have to wonder about the pitcher the Angels are now counting on as the third guy in their rotation. The real big deal you notice right off the bat with Hanson is that he has lost three miles per hour on his fastball since 2010. The loss of velocity was shown across all of his pitches. Combine those facts with one strikeout per nine less in 2012 compared to 2011 and you see a few flags fly up.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">From this perspective, the Angels have too many question marks in the rotation behind Weaver. Wilson just doesn't often seem that impressive and his numbers for the Angels were just a tick above ordinary. There are red flags with Hanson. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Garrett Richards</a></strong> is pegged as number four and has not blown anyone away in either the high minors or in his two cups of coffee. Round out the thing with Jerome Williams and his hard sinker.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The good news is that the Angels have not given up much to get Hanson. But the not so good news is that Hanson is not someone to be overly excited about either. There are only three possibilities here. Either Hanson was not healthy and can get his velocity back. Or he is still not healthy. Or, finally, that at twenty-five, we've already seen the best of what Hanson has had to offer. The Angels are hoping that the first possibility is the one that they get. </div>

Hanson just adds to the Angels' rotation question marks

The Angels of a year ago went into the season with their rotation feted as the strength of the team. Yes, they went out and got Pujols, and ...

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