Valdespin and Andrus: Youth is Wasted on the Young

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The quote in the heading by George Bernard Shaw could also be modified as, "Talent is Wasted on the Young." Two different stories have caught my attention this spring. Both involve the people behind the baseball players.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The<a data-mce-href="http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/12417881/elvis-andrus-texas-rangers-ready-move-rough-year" href="http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/12417881/elvis-andrus-texas-rangers-ready-move-rough-year" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank"> first story</a>  caught my attention early in Spring Training and involved <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a></strong> being in the best shape of his life (BSOL). And the <a data-mce-href="http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article15548384.html" href="http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article15548384.html" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">second story</a> was much more recent concerning <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valdejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valdejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jordany Valdespin</a></strong> and how his mother told him to grow up. Andrus is 26 and Valdespin is 27.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is easy to forget that baseball players reach their physical peak early in life. We also fail to understand that most males do not reach their maturity peak until much later. I used to tell my son that boys were always three years younger (in maturity) than their actual ages. Sometimes that is optimistic.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And yet for every <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> who bursts onto the scene with nothing but determination and a level head, there are a dozen others that don't figure it out until much later. The result is losing a lot of time and talent and sometimes it is too late.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let's start with Elvis Andrus as his is perhaps the less harsh story of the two. Andrus has been a millionaire since the age of 23. When he signed a long-term deal with the Rangers that runs unti 2022, his future became secure and he had nothing but years of money heading his way.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Andrus' reaction to that was him coming to Spring Training a year ago really out of shape. I am not being unfair here, he says it himself. As such, he wasn't ready to play and ended up having the worst year of his career when he should have been peaking as a player.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Andrus has been in the spotlight since he arrived in the Majors. The arrival coincided with the Rangers having great teams and making two World Series in a row. Andrus wanted to be talked about in the same breath as Jeter. But it never happened. While he was a much better fielder than Jeter ever was, his offense has been below league average for every season he's been in the Majors.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It appears that last season made the bell go off and he went into the off season with a plan and is having a fabulous spring. This could be the year that he actually becomes the offensive player it was thought he could be.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's just a shame that it took him so long to figure that out.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jordany Valdespin has an even harsher story. The Mets were excited about his talent and either thought he would be the team's future second baseman or a weapon as a super-utility type player. The trouble was, the young man was poison to his fellow players.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Valdespin has a <a data-mce-href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-jordany-valdespin-suspended-50-games-by-mlb-in-biogenesis-probe-1.5832641" href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-jordany-valdespin-suspended-50-games-by-mlb-in-biogenesis-probe-1.5832641" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">track record</a> of immaturity which included altercations with his manager when he didn't play or was sent to the minors. And when he did play, he angered his teammates by showboating. His results definitely show a guy who should not have been showboating.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">How bad was the antipathy with his fellow Mets? When he got caught up in the Biogenesis scandal and was suspended for fifty games, his own teammate said the incident, "definitely confirms his stupidity." Ouch.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Valdespin handled the adversity the way most immature young people do. He wanted to quit after the suspension in 2013. He was frustrated. He probably felt that where he landed was everyone else's fault.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That's when his mom stepped in. She did what every decent parent has to do at some point in the life of their child. She told him to grow up. To his credit, he took that advice and accepted it.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Miami Marlins gave him another chance. And he is having a great spring and will make the decision on whether to keep him in the Big Leagues a tough one for the Marlins. I find myself rooting for him...and for Andrus.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">You have to root for someone who finally gets it. Andrus is guaranteed to be a rich man. Jordany Valdespin is fighting for his baseball life. Both have wasted their prime years and a serious chunk of talent by their immaturity.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But that's what makes this game interesting if you care to think about it. We are talking about human beings here. And human beings who try to improve themselves and grow up are human beings to root for and make an interesting story in counterpoint to the cold, harsh reality of statistics and results.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Talent is often wasted on the young. That happens. Some take longer to figure it out. Some never figure it out. Elvis Andrus and Jordany Valdespin have apparently figured it out. I hope they are rewarded with the the physical time they have left in the game. If they never get where they were supposed to become, at least it won't be because they were their own worst enemies.</span></div>

Valdespin and Andrus: Youth is Wasted on the Young

The quote in the heading by George Bernard Shaw could also be modified as, "Talent is Wasted on the Young." Two different stories ...

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What now for the Texas Rangers?

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">No one should speculate on what caused <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/washiro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/washiro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ron Washington</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> to step down as manager of the Texas Rangers. If his personal difficulties are that problematic, we should pray for him and hope that things work out for he and his family. The bottom line for the Rangers is that Washington probably saved them some trouble. Somebody was going to have to pay for this season.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That somebody is usually the manager. The Rangers, a preseason favorite for some, have a .376 winning record and are actually more than eight games <em style="border: none; line-height: 1.5;">behind</em> the Houston Astros in the AL West standings. That is a steep fall from grace for a team that went to the World Series in 2010 and 2011.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Everyone can point to the injuries and they are myriad. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Yu Darvish</a></strong> has been just the latest of the projected starting rotation to go down. A cursory look at the team's forty-man roster shows 60-day DL designations for: <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrima01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harrima01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Matt Harrison</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezma02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezma02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Martin Perez</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ogandal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ogandal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Alexi Ogando</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/figuepe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/figuepe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Pedro Figueroa</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/profaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/profaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jurickson Profar</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Shin-Soo Choo</a></strong>, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mitch Moreland</a></strong>. And <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollade01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollade01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Derek Holland</a></strong> just made his first appearance of the season.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So yes, the injuries were debilitating. But can a .376 winning percentage totally be pegged on just that staggering list of injuries? Other teams like the Yankees have had similar injury issues if not to the extent of the Rangers and have at least been decent.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Rangers' nose-dive has been across the board. The offense ranks 12th in the American League in runs scored. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a></strong>, cementing his Hall of Fame case, is having another great season but is the only current Rangers' starter in the lineup with an OPS+ over 100.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">And the offense should not have been this bad. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riosal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riosal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Alex Rios</a></strong> has four home runs. Four! After several seasons, it must be now assumed that <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/andruel01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Elvis Andrus</a></strong> will never be an offensive star at shortstop. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martile01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martile01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Leonys Martin</a></strong> has not lived up to the promise and at Age 26, probably will not. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Rougned Odor</a></strong> has shown flashes, but not a sustained season and the catching has been a black hole.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The offense was not as impacted as the pitching so it should have been better. The pitching has been almost historically bad. The Rangers are last in the American League in ERA. They are next to last in hits and homers allowed and next to last in strikeouts. And to top it all off, they are 13th in walks allowed. And Yu Darvish propped up a lot of those numbers!</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Every pitcher in the current rotation except <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tepesni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tepesni01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nick Tepesch</a></strong> has an ERA over five. <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lewisco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lewisco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Colby Lewis</a></strong> has the best FIP among the starters (not including Darvish) at 4.33.  They have been blown out thirty times. They only have 25 total saves.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So where do the Rangers go from here? Do they simply hope all their stars return and then return to form in 2015? Things are never that simple. It is difficult for a player to miss significant time and come back at a level maintained before.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The team does not have to worry about what to do with Ron Washington as he solved that for him. The fan base is unhappy and does not totally buy into the injury excuse. And Washington does not seem to be the target of their ire. Jon Daniels gets far more heat. I don't know if that is justified or not. He gets a lot of the blame for forcing <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanno01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ryanno01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" rel="nofollow" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Nolan Ryan</a></strong> out and Ryan was (right or wrong) given much of the credit for turning the pitching around.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">General Managers rarely get fired and because of the Rangers' past success, Daniels will probably get a pass and a chance to see if the team can bounce back in 2015 with a healthier team.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The fans will be watching. They have already spoken by attending over 200,000 less times to games this season for an average loss per game of over 4,100 seats. A loss of that kind of revenue should give Daniels a shorter leash (if he makes it to 2015).</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The team also has to select a manager going forward. Will it be a rebuilding manager or one that takes the talent they have and brings them back to a team to contend. When a team like the Rangers sinks this low this quickly, the most difficult part is to know how much the injuries played in how badly the season went. Those injuries certainly didn't help.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jon Daniels will have an interesting off season and an unhappy fan base will be watching closely.</span></div>

What now for the Texas Rangers?

No one should speculate on what caused  Ron Washington  to step down as manager of the Texas Rangers. If his personal difficulties are that ...

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So maybe 2013 wasn't a fluke for Choo

<div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">When the Texas Rangers signed <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/choosh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Shin-Soo Choo</a></strong><span style="font-size: small;"> to a very nice chunk of change many writers panned the idea a bit and mentioned that 2013 was a bit out of line with the rest of Choo's career and that he was a target for regression. Surprisingly, I was not one of </span><a data-mce-href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2013/12/2013-fluke-or-future-shin-soo-choo.html" href="http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2013/12/2013-fluke-or-future-shin-soo-choo.html" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">those writers</a><span style="font-size: small;">. It has not been noteworthy since the Rangers have struggled out of the gate, but Choo is having an even better year so far in 2014.</span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So far this season, Choo is second in baseball in on-base percentage. He is third in wOBA and wRC+ and is 20th overall in fWAR. Consider what I consider the best stat thus far: In 30 games, Choo has been on base 62 times!  That includes five HBPs, 34 hits and 23 walks. He is tied for fifth in that category and eighth in runs created. Choo has been sensational.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Here is a ridiculous stat for you: Of all of the pitches Choo has seen out of the strike zone, he has only swung at 14.8% of them. That puts him second in baseball behind Joyce of the Rays (really!? who knew?).</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The .343 batting average is going to come down. After all, his BABIP is .419 and you should not be able to sustain that kind of average on balls in play. Plus, his number of infield hits is by far the highest of his career. On the other hand, he currently is sporting his highest line drive percentage of his career (full time years) and that helps.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A couple of other numbers you should know. First, his swinging strike percentage is easily the lowest of his career. Between his 17.8% walk rate, his low swinging at strikes out of the strike zone and his low swinging strike percentage, it is obvious that Choo is very locked in at the plate and has a definite plan of attack when he gets there.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Choo's current fWAR of 1.3 is ahead of the pace to have him blow past of the 5.2 fWAR he accumulated last season. Playing left field instead of being out of position in center like he was for the Reds helps out too. Choo won't be nearly as hurt by his defensive numbers as last year. On the other hand, his defense is less valued in a corner outfield position than it would be in center field.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh, and in case you are saying, "Yeah, yeah, but look where he plays his home games." I might tend to agree with those sentiments if it wasn't for the face that Choo is sporting a 1.410 OPS on the road compared to .723 at home. That is strange, eh? Ah, the wonder of early season short sample sizes.</span></div><div style="color: #444444; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Small sample size or not, Shin-Soo Choo is having another great season. And the offensive numbers he put up in 2013 are showing more and more to be his norm and not some sort of fluke season.</span></div>

So maybe 2013 wasn't a fluke for Choo

When the Texas Rangers signed  Shin-Soo Choo  to a very nice chunk of change many writers panned the idea a bit and mentioned that 2013 was ...

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Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at projections is a fun way to pass the time. Whether you do this for fantasy baseball purposes or--if you are like me and do not play fantasy--just for the fun of it, There is a lot of stuff to sort through and ponder. Projection systems are difficult to wrap your head around because some project actual playing time and others assume everyone is going to get 550 plate appearances. The latter, I suppose, is helpful in case a player breaks out in Spring Training and ends up as a starter (which rarely happens). What I thought I would do on this Sunday afternoon was cull through the various projection systems and determine who the five least valuable players would be in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Such an exercise is harder than you think. First, I have an artificial number of projected plate appearances of 450. I want to consider starters and not part-time players. Secondly, I have to figure out which of these players will actually get the playing time he is projected to obtain. For example, one of the lowest rated was <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brett Wallace</a></strong>. But he was just DFA'd by the Astros and doesn't figure to catch on with a full-time gig anywhere else. And lastly, most of the projection systems have to agree on the lack of value a player will have in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">After making my list, a discussion on the merits of each will occur. Think of it as sort of an over/under type discussion. For disclosure sake, I used PECOTA, Steamer, Oliver and Fans projections. I used MLB Depth Charts to confirm possible playing time.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Okay, the list:</div><ol style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Garrett Jones</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.23 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Raul Ibanez</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.3 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mitch Moreland</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.55 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adeiny Hechavarria</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.65 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Ludwick</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.78 WAR</li></ol><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Garrett Jones - Jones holds one of the most extreme L/R splits in the Majors with less than a .600 OPS against left-handed pitching and in the high .878 against right-handed pitchers. He is penciled in as the platoon partner with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeff Baker</a></strong> at first base. That would be a good thing for Jones as he is capable of hitting more than twenty homers. If he can field first base at near league-average level, he could score 2.0 in WAR. If he plays full time or spends any time in the outfield, all bets are off.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Raul Ibanez - The projections are logical since Ibanez is 41 years old and should never wear a glove. But the Angels only need him as a DH and have plenty of outfielders. So unlike last year in Seattle, Ibanez should only be a DH. That said, will he get 400 plate appearances? He won't if he is platooned (and he should be). Based on offense alone, he could get 1.5 in WAR.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Mitch Moreland - Moreland has no home at first base with the Rangers' addition of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong>. MLB Depth Charts has him listed as the Rangers' DH. Plus, he has spent plenty of time in the outfield too. Moreland's career doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I think these projections are pretty money.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Adeiny Hechavarria - Not only is his name a bear to spell, but he was awful for the Marlins last season. And still, he is pegged as their starting shortstop again this year. I don't think he will ever hit and a sub-.300 on-base percentage could be his norm. He gets bonus WAR points for his "important position" on the field, but doesn't score all that well as a fielder. If he reaches 1.0 in WAR in 2014, it will be a surprise.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Ryan Ludwick - I kept hearing last year that the Reds will be okay once Ludwick comes back from injury. And it made me scratch my head. Yeah, he had a pretty good 2012, but that is the anomaly for him over the past five seasons. The Reds have him penciled in as the starting left-fielder. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky scenario for them. He is not great in the field, and 2012 aside, his bat has been missing since his days with the Cardinals. I think his projection is fair. His positional ranking hurts him, his fielding hurts him and I don't see him repeating 2012 for offensive production.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">There you have it. The projections have spoken. But of course, nobody knows how any player's season will go until he actually plays the games.</div>

Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at ...

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So long, Lance Berkman and Michael Young

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">A couple of Texas institutions during the past fifteen years hung up their spikes this week. Between the two of them, <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Lance Berkman</a></strong> and <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=,youngmi02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=,youngmi02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></strong> banged out 3,940 hits while wearing the uniform of teams from Texas. Berkman, of course, was the first round draft pick of the Houston Astros who had quite a career there and Young plied his trade with the Texas Rangers for his long career.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Though they were both drafted in 1997 and both were institutions where they played and banged out consistent .300 batting averages over the years, the similarity between the two players pretty much ends there. If the sun were Cooperstown, Lance Berkman was the Earth and Young, probably Jupiter. I said Pluto last night on Twitter, but that was a bit unkind and in response to another blogger who stated that Young retired on the cusp of Cooperstown. Young was not even close to that kind of player.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">But Lance Berkman was. If he could have stayed healthier, he could have really put up the kind of numbers that would get him a plaque. Berkman's injuries led him to have only twelve seasons where he played more than a hundred games. Out of those twelve, he slugged over .500 eleven times and had over a .400 on-base percentage eight times.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Just to give you an idea of how different they were offensively, Lance Berkman had a career wOBA of .400 on the dot. Michael Young had a career wOBA of .342. Lance Berkman's offense was worth 433.6 batting runs during his career. Young's offense was worth 44.2, almost ten percent of Berkman's contribution. Berkman finished with a 144 wRC+ (same as his OPS+) and Young, 104.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Interestingly, they finished within six total bases of each other for their career, but Berkman compiled his in almost 800 fewer plate appearances. Berkman's 1,201 career walks more than doubles Young's career total.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Young was much more durable. In one twelve year stretch, Young played more than 150 games in eleven of those seasons. He also led the league in hits twice and batting average once. He made seven All Star teams and finished in the top ten in MVP voting twice.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Young was more of a cog in a wheel of some very good Rangers teams (and some very bad ones). Berkman was a contemporary with Biggio and Bagwell for years and was just as much as an offensive star as either of them.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Young will always be marked down a bit because he played half of his games in Texas Rangers' home parks, always considered hitters' paradise. Indeed, his home OPS for his career is 108 points higher than his road OPS.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Berkman just flat out hit no matter where he was. For his career, Berkman a .946 OPS guy at home and .940 on the road. His OPS was over .900 for every month of the year--over .950 for three of those months. He had a career .970 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position, a .926 OPS in late and close games and a .956 OPS in tie games.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Young played more valuable positions on the field and his versatility is somewhat what kept him a fixture for so long. That is not to say that he always played them well. Berkman played the bulk of his career as a left-fielder (while Bagwell was at first) and then as a first baseman: two positions that do not rate highly on the positional skill ranking. But he played them reasonably well most of the time.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Young was strictly a right-handed batter who was consistent against pitchers who threw with either arm. Lance Berkman was a switch-hitter who was much, much better batting left-handed.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Both players were considered good clubhouse guys. Berkman was known for his humor and for keeping things loose and teammates laughing. Young was a leader of his clubhouse in Texas for many years.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Both played quite a few post-season games. Berkman over-performed his career numbers there was killer in his two World Series appearances. Young under-performed in his post-season career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5;">As you have seen, Lance Berkman was twice as valuable a player than Michael Young. But both are gone now and after watching them for all these years, they are going to be missed. Baseball goes on, but every so often, you lose players that have seemed to be with you forever. Michael Young and Lance Berkman were Texas baseball and it won't be the same without them.</span> </div>

So long, Lance Berkman and Michael Young

A couple of Texas institutions during the past fifteen years hung up their spikes this week. Between the two of them,  Lance Berkman  and  M...

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The fine wine of Adrian Beltre

<div style="text-align: justify;">Adrian Beltre has been perhaps the most unappreciated player in baseball over the past four seasons. They have been four seasons in which he has averaged thirty-one homers and a hundred runs batted in and a .385 wOBA. According to the Fangraphs.com leaderboard, Beltre has been the fifth best position player in the Major Leagues during that time. In fact, if Adrian Beltre were to never play another game, he would be the eighth best third baseman of all time. Six of the seven in front of him are in the Hall of Fame. The seventh, Chipper Jones, will be.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Beltre's consistency has been remarkable. You may--if you think of Beltre at all--think that his success over the last three years would be from hitting in Texas half of the time. And yes, Texas is a great place to hit. But Beltre does not have Nelson Cruz-like splits. His wOBA at home last year was .891 and on the road it was .879. In fairness, the splits were a little more dramatic his first two years in Texas and perhaps facing the Astros helped in 2013.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But look at his wOBA over the last four years. They are, in order from his year in Boston to last year: .391, .381, .388, .379. That is a great four-year spread. Beltre's triple slash line over the four years: .314/.358/.545. Nice.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But of course, Beltre is not just a great hitter. There has also been his defense at third. Beltre is currently ninth on Baseball-reference.com's all time total zone runs for third basemen. Perhaps Beltre is slowing down a bit. His numbers on both Fangraphs.com and Baseball-reference.com went into barely negative territory for 2013 for the first time in his career. And this has been part of a slow decline in his fielding numbers over the last four years.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But regression as a player probably shows up more on the field than anywhere else. He is heading into his age 35 season after all. So how much longer will Beltre be a great player? If history tells us anything, perhaps three more seasons.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I studied the WAR graphs of some of the great third basemen over time. I left off Mike Schmidt because he blows away the curve. But when comparing Beltre to Brooks Robinson, George Brett, Chipper Jones, and Ron Santo, only Santo was done by Beltre's age. The others all had three more productive seasons after Beltre's current age and then leveled off.</div><br />Take a look at the WAR graphs of some of these greats:<br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="450" scrolling="no" src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&static=0&type=graphsw&num=2&h=450&w=450&players=639,1011055,1011447,97,1001400" style="border: 1px solid black;" width="450"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size: 9pt;">Source: </span><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=639,1011055,1011447,97,1001400&wg=2" style="font-size: 9pt;">FanGraphs</a><span style="font-size: 9pt;"> -- </span><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=97&position=3B" style="font-size: 9pt;">Chipper Jones</a><span style="font-size: 9pt;">, </span><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=639&position=3B" style="font-size: 9pt;">Adrian Beltre</a><span style="font-size: 9pt;">, </span><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1001400&position=3B" style="font-size: 9pt;">George Brett</a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">What I find remarkable about this chart is how similar all those careers were. Not only that, how well Beltre stacks up against all those great third basemen. For his age, he is right there with all of them at similar points in their careers. And, again, only Santo was done by age 34. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Adrian Beltre has been a terrific player over his entire career. He has done it with the bat and with the glove. His statistics with the bat over the last four years show consistency and have been prolific. When you watch Adrian Beltre play a baseball game, don't just think of him currently as one of the better players in the game. Think of him as one of the best third basemen of all time.</div>

The fine wine of Adrian Beltre

Adrian Beltre has been perhaps the most unappreciated player in baseball over the past four seasons. They have been four seasons in which he...

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Adrain Beltre - a product of his environment

<div style="text-align: justify;"><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a></strong> will be heading into his Age 34 season with fifteen years already accumulated in his Major League Baseball career. Since his first (partial) season was at age 19, it seems like Beltre has been around forever. And Beltre has a chance to put up the kind of counting stats that will guarantee him a spot in the Hall of Fame, especially when you combine his fielding stats. But if you look at Beltre's career, his numbers have fluctuated greatly from season to season. Mariners fans have to be looking at what Beltre has done over his last three seasons and wonder what the heck happened. And Beltre had that one big year for the Dodgers and several not so big years there. Park effect has really been a factor in Beltre's career.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Where Beltre currently plays his home games is good news for him when it comes to piling on the rest of his counting stats because it is such a good hitters' park. For example, in his two seasons there, Beltre has a triple slash line at Ameriquest Field of .328/.369/.608. Yes, those numbers are pretty. But Beltre spent the bulk of his career playing his home games in Seattle and Los Angeles. Here are his slash lines in those two parks compared to his career line:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Dodger Stadium: .253/.316/.423</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Safeco Field: .252/304/.411</li><li style="text-align: justify;">Career Stats: .280/.331/.476</li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It becomes really obvious that all those games in those two ballparks had a severe impact on Beltre's career. Out of curiosity, I wanted to get rid of the stats in all three of his home ballparks to see if that could gives me some insight of what kind of offensive player Beltre really is. I realize that other stats already do this such as wRC+ and OPS+ for example. But I wanted more organic counting stats to see the difference.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So what I did was to take his career stats and subtracted all the stats from Dodger Stadium, Safeco Field and even Ameriquest since that park has inflated his stats a bit the last two seasons. I did not bother with his one season in Boston. So taking out those three parks, the rest of the stats give him a career triple slash line of .292/.340/.496. This, to me, gives a truer picture of the kind of offensive player that Beltre has been. Sure, I know these are sloppy stats because all the rest of his non-home stats have come in all kinds of different parks and conditions and I am no mathematician. But I do believe that this triple slash line gives a better picture.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you take the triple slash line of his non-home stats and use those numbers for his whole career, Beltre would have 96 more hits than his 2,227. He would have 51 more doubles than his current 463. He would have fifteen more triples than his career 30. Surprisingly, the home run total works out almost the same and his walk and HBP totals go down. Here is a picture of my spreadsheet. Click on it to make it larger.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaABLo_D48vtiKxGDAHYWMaDIYLK5Oa4VczamE4fgdpjusywHlaWIMzpjDGMqjai8UoZMByneefJdegeJm5EeVynC8TiM6d6Pk6IUa4s8ixpDeCYp09IzxszA85CMjC-ip9icl0TR3irk/s1600/Beltre+stats.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="80" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaABLo_D48vtiKxGDAHYWMaDIYLK5Oa4VczamE4fgdpjusywHlaWIMzpjDGMqjai8UoZMByneefJdegeJm5EeVynC8TiM6d6Pk6IUa4s8ixpDeCYp09IzxszA85CMjC-ip9icl0TR3irk/s400/Beltre+stats.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Now I realize that Beltre's career will be measured without any of this hoopla. And heck, he is already rated according to JAWS as the twelfth best third baseman ever. And that is only going to rise the longer he plays. Beltre seems destined for the Hall of Fame no matter what his numbers were in LA and Seattle. I just feel that those two parks dragged him down to make that HOF vote a little less than a slam dunk years from now. The odds are good that he will reach 3,000 hits, 450 homers and 1500 runs batted in if he plays five more seasons. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">In other words, the combination of his offense and defense will give him a ticket. They just might have been a little prettier if he hadn't had all those plate appearances in those two unforgiving offensive ballparks.</div><br />

Adrain Beltre - a product of his environment

Adrian Beltre will be heading into his Age 34 season with fifteen years already accumulated in his Major League Baseball career. Since his...

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Six things you might not know about Lance Berkman

<div style="text-align: justify;">There have been a lot of mixed feelings out in the blogging world on what the Texas Rangers have done by signing <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berkmla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Lance Berkman</a></strong>. There is a palpable risk for the Rangers since Berkman only played 32 games in 2012 due to continued problems with his knees. But what if Berkman could play a hundred games in 2013? If that could happen or more, then Lance Berkman will be worth every penny of that $10 million the Rangers will be paying him. At times quietly (most of his seasons in Houston) and at other times noisily (Cardinals in 2011), Lance Berkman has been one of the best offensive players of his generation. Don't think so? Check out these six things you may not know about him.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">1. Lance Berkman has a career on-base average over .400 (.409). That is 38th all time. He has walked more than 90 times in a season in ten of his fourteen seasons and three of those were over a hundred times. Only ten players in history have walked more than 90 times in a season in more seasons than Berkman. And they list like the Who's Who of baseball history. Since 2009, which includes some injury-riddled seasons, he is tied with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=bautijo02,bautijo01,bautis005jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jose Bautista</a></strong> for the highest walk percentage at 16.2%. If you go back as far as 2004, Lance Berkman is fourth in the majors in walk percentage (min 3,000 plate appearances) behind only Thome, Dunn and Giambi. And this is despite not being in the top 30 in plate discipline as far as swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. Berkman has been an on-base machine.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">2. Since 2004 (the post Bonds era), Lance Berkman has the seventh highest wOBA in baseball among players with more than 3,000 plate appearances. Those ahead of him?  It's a pretty good list: Pujols, Votto, Manny, Miggy, Big Papi and Braun. So getting on base is not his only strength. Berkman also has a career Slugging Percentage of .544 and his rank since 2004 with the same criteria as before is 12th. If you go by OPS+, Berkman is fifth in baseball since 2004 behind only Pujols, Votto, Cabrera and Manny. In other words, one of the best offensive players of his generation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">3. Can we dare say that Lance Berkman is as clutch a player as there has been in baseball? Yeah, people hate that word. But consider these facts. First, since 2004, Berkman is third in all of baseball (position players) in WPA behind only Pujols and Cabrera. For his career, Berkman has an OPS of .984 with two outs and runners in scoring position. In tie games, his OPS is .969. In high leverage situations, his career OPS is .970.  For his career, he has a .954 OPS in the ninth inning. That's a pretty good argument, is it not?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">4. Lance Berkman is remarkably consistent. He has a career OPS of .914 or higher in every month of the season. His career OPS at home is .955. On the road it is .950. He's had a .909 OPS at every position he's played except as a pinch hitter. His OPS with no outs in an inning is .978. His OPS with one out is .946. His OPS with two outs is .936.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">5. There is one exception to Berkman's consistency. He is no where near as good a hitter when batting from the right side against left-handed pitching as he is from the left side against right-handed pitching. His career OPS on the former is .777. His OPS in the latter situation is 1.007. That is a 230 point difference. It is a little better against left-handed starters where his career OPS is .833. But still, this is a huge difference.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">6. If the Rangers are going to the post season, Berkman is a great guy to have along for that ride. Berkman has been as good or better in the post-season as he has been in the regular season. In 233 post season plate appearances, Berkman's triple slash line is: ..317/.417/.532. Yeah, that will do, eh?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hopefully, the case has been made here of Berkman being among the best offensive players of his generation. Hence the Rangers' risky move here. If Berkman can slot into the DH and get 350 to 400 plate appearances, he should reward the Rangers' risk. And of course, he has always been highly rated for those clubhouse intangibles. But if his wheels are as toasted as they were for the Cardinals last season, then the Rangers' risky move will blow up big time. Health will be the key. </div>

Six things you might not know about Lance Berkman

There have been a lot of mixed feelings out in the blogging world on what the Texas Rangers have done by signing Lance Berkman . There is a...

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Adrian Beltre is the Rangers' best player

<!-- NOTE: some names the b-r linker matched have multiple, possible player id matches. Leave this as is or search for "results=" to select a desired player/id pairing. You may remove this comment. --> <br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Not only has <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=beltrad01,beltre002adr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Adrian Beltre</a></strong> been the best player for the Texas Rangers this season, he is one of the best players in baseball when it has really mattered--the last two months. His defense is always first rate and ranks him at the head of his position class, but Beltre had a 1.006 OPS in August with a .417 wOBA and has topped that this month with a 1.161 OPS and a .470 wOBA. Holy cow! He now leads his team in WAR. Beltre has been sensational.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Let's face it, the Rangers play in a park that aids a strong offensive team. And sure enough, Beltre has a season OPS of .965 at home with a .406 wOBA. But his season on the road is not shabby at all. He has an .861 OPS on the road with a terrific .360 wOBA. He has done it all. He leads the team in go-ahead hits with 23 (Hamilton has 18).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Rangers signed Beltre before the 2011 season and what a bargain he has turned out to be. In his two years with the team, he has hit 66 homers and has driven in 200 runs. His OPS in his two year run with the team is .904. All the while, he has brought his usual stellar play to the bag at third base. How could the Red Sox not resign this guy after the 2010 season? Crazy.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There is not much more profound things to say about Adrian Beltre. He now has the eleventh highest WAR total ever for a third baseman and should finish around seven or eight by the time he is done. He is only 33 years old. He already has the ninth highest career total zone runs as a third baseman and is closing fast on the number eight guy. At a time when the Rangers were fading a bit and losing some of their big lead in the division, Adrian Beltre has been there to make sure they did not fall too far. His season has been remarkable and its finish, outstanding.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Since there is not more more profound things to say, let's leave you with a brief highlight reel of his memorable fielding plays of 2012.</div><br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=24711567&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe><br /><br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=24461145&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe><br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=24428785&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe><br /><br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=24428785&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> <br /><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=23135587&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> <br />And that is just a taste of this year.

Adrian Beltre is the Rangers' best player

Not only has Adrian Beltre been the best player for the Texas Rangers this season, he is one of the best players in baseball when it h...

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Michael Young has cratered

<div style="text-align: justify;"><b><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngmi02.shtml" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></b> has long been the poster boy of the analytic crowd when it comes to poking holes in empty superstars. His fielding--or lack thereof--has greatly reduced the value of his offensive benefits over the years to put him on that poster. But all fielding aside, the guy has always been a good offensive player for the Rangers. In his eleven seasons, Baseball-reference.com has him at 35 oWAR (wins above replacement from just an offensive standpoint). His average season equals 199 hits, 90 runs scored and driven in with a .791 OPS. That has to be adjusted for his home ballpark and it still gives him a 104 OPS+ for his career. And he had one of his best seasons offensively a year ago. But this year? Crater city.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Michael Young currently has the tenth lowest wOBA of all qualifying batters in baseball. Add that to the times he plays in the field and you come up with the second LEAST valuable player in Major League Baseball behind only Francoeur of the Royals. And for once, Fangraphs is more kind than B-R. Fangraphs gives Young a -1.5 fWAR whereas B-R gives him a -2.2. Ugh and ouch, that is a lousy season. So what happened?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For one, his power has disappeared. And he has been trending that way for the last couple of years. He hit only eleven homers last season despite the very good offensive season he had. And that came after two 20+ homer seasons the previous two years and an average of 16 dingers a season. This year, Young has hit four homers. Four. But at least Young hit 41 doubles last season and six triples. This season, with a little more than a month to go, he has hit 20 doubles and three triples. His slugging percentage is 124 points below last season and his OPS is down a whopping 200 points. His homer to fly ball rate is the lowest of his career at 3.9 percent.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perhaps Michael Young just had a bad start and hasn't had a full chance to recover. Nope. His OPS in the first half was .656. His OPS in the second half is .650. His OPS for August is a bit better at .703. He is not taking advantage of his home park like he did in the past. For his career, Young has an .849 OPS at home. That is 114 points higher than his road OPS. But this year, he actually has a higher OPS on the road than at home and neither one of them are any good.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The two biggest things his stats show are first, he is hitting a lot more ground balls. And, secondly, his BABIP is way off on his career mark. The ground balls have to be hurting him. His ground ball percentage for his career is 46.3 percent. This season, that mark is 53.4 percent. His career ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.57. This season, it is 2.25. He is still hitting line drives at a good clip at 23 percent. But the high ground ball rate and much lower BABIP is killing his production.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Another big thing to notice is that he is struggling against the fastball. Michael Young has always been a good fastball hitter. Just last year, his ability to hit a fastball was worth in the positive at 29.4 and he has been over ten on that pitch for five straight seasons. This year, his score on fastballs is -9.7. He is hitting off-speed stuff at a decent clip, but the fastball? No. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This leads to the question of whether at the age of 35 if Young's bat has slowed down the point where pitchers can overpower him. The only other possibilities are that his mechanics are off or he is fighting injuries we haven't heard about.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Whatever the case, Michael Young is having a very bad season and has another year left on his contract to the tune of $16 million. That cost is a sunk one for the Rangers this year. As such, what will they do with Young next season? Are his intangibles and leadership worth that kind of money if his days as an offensive producer are over? Those are tough questions the Rangers are going to have to figure out over then next five to six months.</div>

Michael Young has cratered

Michael Young has long been the poster boy of the analytic crowd when it comes to poking holes in empty superstars. His fielding--or lack t...

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