Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

<div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at projections is a fun way to pass the time. Whether you do this for fantasy baseball purposes or--if you are like me and do not play fantasy--just for the fun of it, There is a lot of stuff to sort through and ponder. Projection systems are difficult to wrap your head around because some project actual playing time and others assume everyone is going to get 550 plate appearances. The latter, I suppose, is helpful in case a player breaks out in Spring Training and ends up as a starter (which rarely happens). What I thought I would do on this Sunday afternoon was cull through the various projection systems and determine who the five least valuable players would be in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Such an exercise is harder than you think. First, I have an artificial number of projected plate appearances of 450. I want to consider starters and not part-time players. Secondly, I have to figure out which of these players will actually get the playing time he is projected to obtain. For example, one of the lowest rated was <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Brett Wallace</a></strong>. But he was just DFA'd by the Astros and doesn't figure to catch on with a full-time gig anywhere else. And lastly, most of the projection systems have to agree on the lack of value a player will have in 2014.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">After making my list, a discussion on the merits of each will occur. Think of it as sort of an over/under type discussion. For disclosure sake, I used PECOTA, Steamer, Oliver and Fans projections. I used MLB Depth Charts to confirm possible playing time.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Okay, the list:</div><ol style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 24px 1.5em; padding: 0px;"><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesga02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Garrett Jones</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.23 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/ibanera01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Raul Ibanez</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.3 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morelmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Mitch Moreland</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.55 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Adeiny Hechavarria</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.65 WAR</li><li style="line-height: 1.5; text-align: justify;"><strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/ludwiry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Ryan Ludwick</a></strong> - Average Projection of 0.78 WAR</li></ol><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Garrett Jones - Jones holds one of the most extreme L/R splits in the Majors with less than a .600 OPS against left-handed pitching and in the high .878 against right-handed pitchers. He is penciled in as the platoon partner with <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bakerje03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Jeff Baker</a></strong> at first base. That would be a good thing for Jones as he is capable of hitting more than twenty homers. If he can field first base at near league-average level, he could score 2.0 in WAR. If he plays full time or spends any time in the outfield, all bets are off.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Raul Ibanez - The projections are logical since Ibanez is 41 years old and should never wear a glove. But the Angels only need him as a DH and have plenty of outfielders. So unlike last year in Seattle, Ibanez should only be a DH. That said, will he get 400 plate appearances? He won't if he is platooned (and he should be). Based on offense alone, he could get 1.5 in WAR.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Mitch Moreland - Moreland has no home at first base with the Rangers' addition of <strong style="color: black; line-height: 1.5;"><a data-mce-href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.flagrantfan.com" style="color: #743399; line-height: 1.5;" target="_blank">Prince Fielder</a></strong>. MLB Depth Charts has him listed as the Rangers' DH. Plus, he has spent plenty of time in the outfield too. Moreland's career doesn't seem to be going anywhere and I think these projections are pretty money.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Adeiny Hechavarria - Not only is his name a bear to spell, but he was awful for the Marlins last season. And still, he is pegged as their starting shortstop again this year. I don't think he will ever hit and a sub-.300 on-base percentage could be his norm. He gets bonus WAR points for his "important position" on the field, but doesn't score all that well as a fielder. If he reaches 1.0 in WAR in 2014, it will be a surprise.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">Ryan Ludwick - I kept hearing last year that the Reds will be okay once Ludwick comes back from injury. And it made me scratch my head. Yeah, he had a pretty good 2012, but that is the anomaly for him over the past five seasons. The Reds have him penciled in as the starting left-fielder. I think it is a pie-in-the-sky scenario for them. He is not great in the field, and 2012 aside, his bat has been missing since his days with the Cardinals. I think his projection is fair. His positional ranking hurts him, his fielding hurts him and I don't see him repeating 2012 for offensive production.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 24px; text-align: justify;">There you have it. The projections have spoken. But of course, nobody knows how any player's season will go until he actually plays the games.</div>

Projecting the five least valuable players of 2014

Without much else to do in this dead zone waiting to see where the last remaining free agents wind up and Spring Training games, looking at ...

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The first annual Dan Meyer Awards - the Anti-MVPs

<div style="text-align: justify;">Now that the World Series is over, everyone will be focusing on off season awards. The BBWAA will have theirs. The BBA will have theirs and I have already contributed to that effort. All of the focus will be on players that played wonderfully in 2013. But there should be an award for the worst players in the league. Every top statistic has to have a bottom. Every yin needs a yang. Every Red Sox needs an Astros (too soon?). And so I have created my own: The <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=meyerda02,meyerda01,meyer-004dan&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dan Meyer</a></strong> Awards</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Why Dan Meyer? Good question. I was going to go with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kingmda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dave Kingman</a></strong>. I mean, how else can you hit over 450 homers in the pre-PED era (we presume) and still not make the Hall of Fame? But Kingman had enough good years to put him in the positive numbers for his career. That didn't make him very good. But he was not bad enough to name an award after.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I considered <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flynndo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Doug Flynn</a></strong>, a guy who played over 1,200 games and had unprecedented negative WAR for a guy with that many games. But Flynn could field a bit. He was no <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belanma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mark Belanger</a></strong>, but he held his own with the glove. He could not hit a lick.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The last guy I considered was <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bergebi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Bill Bergen</a></strong>, the worst hitter that ever lived. But again, Bergen was a pretty good catcher as far as we can tell for the early dawn of professional baseball. None of them really fit. And so I settled on Dan Meyer. For a fun tribute to the player, look <a href="http://www.baseballcardbust.com/2011/02/dan-meyer-1979-topps.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There were two Major League players named Dan Meyer. One was a pitcher the Braves unfortunately selected in the first round of the 2002 draft. He had one good year in 2009 for the Florida Marlins. But the rest were all bad. The one we want here is the other one. This Dan Meyer was a fourth round draft pick by the Tigers in 1972 and somehow managed to play twelve awful years in the Majors.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Our Dan Meyer could not hit and he could not field. As best as I can tell, his career was prolonged twice by two successful years where he managed to crack over 20 homers and score positive WAR. But other than those two years, he was abysmal. He never had a single season where his fielding approached league average.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Our Dan Meyer played three positions: Left Field, First Base and Third Base. He was not good at any of them and finished with negative runs for all three. Of his twelve big league seasons, he finished with a negative WAR figure eight times. In six of those seasons, he played more than 120 games, so it was not like he was a part-timer.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8kdUgeWtUNR4a3Kd7ITM1M02WZY7b7VOb9kjR6p5sXYsGXBeLKCPq8p-8tXUVASJO9mCKWbl2bDKWwdjPIr9x2nCXxm4HrW_CRN6BPNQ-6Ex93umnyzWME1tcfZdWBRrHsIu4str55u8/s1600/100px-Talc_block.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8kdUgeWtUNR4a3Kd7ITM1M02WZY7b7VOb9kjR6p5sXYsGXBeLKCPq8p-8tXUVASJO9mCKWbl2bDKWwdjPIr9x2nCXxm4HrW_CRN6BPNQ-6Ex93umnyzWME1tcfZdWBRrHsIu4str55u8/s1600/100px-Talc_block.jpg" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Meyer played from 1974 to 1985. The first three years were with the Tigers, the next five years were with the Mariners where he had his best years. And his last four were with the Oakland A's. Baseball-reference.com gave him a total of -6.5 rWAR for his career. Fangraphs.com was a bit nicer and put the figure at -5.5 fWAR.</div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Meyer is the perfect symbol of these awards. <strike>We</strike> I salute him! These are not the Silver Slugger Awards. These are the Talc (<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 19.1875px; text-align: center;">Mg</span><sub style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 1em; text-align: center;">3</sub><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 19.1875px; text-align: center;">Si</span><sub style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 1em; text-align: center;">4</sub><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 19.1875px; text-align: center;">O</span><sub style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 1em; text-align: center;">10</sub><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 19.1875px; text-align: center;">(OH)</span></span><sub style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 1em; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">2</span><span style="font-family: sans-serif;">) </span></sub>Awards. The Awards will be handed out by position (450 plate appearances were needed to qualify):</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>First base</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/konerpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Paul Konerko</a></strong>. Konerko has been a really good hitter for a long time which was great because he was no great shakes in the field and he has always been baseball's worst base runner. But his batting bottomed out in 2013. -1.5 rWAR, -1.8 fWAR. Honorable mentions: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dunnad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adam Dunn</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/overbly01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Lyle Overbay</a></strong>. Dunn and Konerko were interchangeable at first base and DH, so either works.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Second base</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keppije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeff Keppinger</a></strong>. Gee, I wonder why the White Sox were so bad this year? Gosh, these numbers are bad. Keppinger had 451 plate appearances, so he just made it. -2.0 rWAR, -1.5 fWAR. His .266 wOBA was beastly (in a bad way). Honorable mention: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barneda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Darwin Barney</a></strong> whose wOBA was even worse than Keppinger, but whose glove saved him.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Shortstop</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hechaad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Adeiny Hechavarria</a></strong>. The Marlins' shortstop deserves to be here since he has an impossible name to spell and type. Both Fangraphs and B-R agree that Hechavarria cost his Marlins 32 runs on offense. 32 runs!! He was the only shortstop (other than our honorable mention) that met our minimum requirements that finished with a negative WAR in both sites. -1.9 fWAR, -2.1 rWAR (!). Honorable mention: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Starlin Castro</a></strong>. That was one awful middle infield for the Cubs, eh?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Third Base</b>: Keppinger could slide in here too. But that's not fair. So the winner is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=,youngmi02&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Young</a></strong>. Which probably isn't fair either as he was a sometimes DH, 3B, 1B, etc. But he did enough of them poorly and batted league average and ran the bases poorly and still managed 565 plate appearances. Jackpot! -0.2 fWAR, -1.3 rWAR. Honorable mention: Can we just give it to the entire Yankees' cacophony of third basemen? No? Okay, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freesda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">David Freese</a></strong> then.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Left Field</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Vernon Wells</a></strong>. That little devil fooled us for a couple of weeks, eh? He fooled <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/girarjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Joe Girardi</a></strong> too and ended up getting 458 suck-the-life-out-of-you-until-you-die plate appearances. -0.8 fWAR, -0.2 rWAR. The Angels did not kill two birds with one stone. They killed two teams. Honorable mention: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vicieda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dayan Viciedo</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Center Field</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruggiju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Justin Ruggiano</a></strong>. I do not know what happened to Ruggiano this season. He lost 216 points off his OPS from 2012. That is sort of incredible. Thanks to positional values, no center fielder finished below zero in the WAR category. But Ruggiano had negative numbers both on offense and on defense. The latter might be because center is not his best position. Honorable mention: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Saunders</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Right Field</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Nick Markakis</a></strong>. This was simply a bad year for Markakis and looking at his career, was probably an outlier. All facets of his game tumbled. -0.1 fWAR, -0.1 rWAR. Honorable mention: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stubbdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Drew Stubbs</a></strong>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Catcher</b>: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arencjp01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">J.P. Arencibia</a></strong>. This one is not even close. To finish with a negative WAR as a catcher with all those positional points is pretty darned hard to do. Not only did Arencibia finish with an OPS of .592 and a wOBA of .259, but his defense fell too. And if you followed along with his Twitter account, he seemed to be in complete denial. That was one ugly season. Honorable mention: How about <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Rob Brantly</a></strong>, except he did not get enough plate appearances.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">There you have it: Your 2013 Dan Meyer Awards. I would have to go with Adeiny Hechavarria for the anti-MVP. What about pitchers, you ask? I am saving those for tomorrow when the first annual <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davieky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kyle Davies</a></strong> Awards are announced. </div>

The first annual Dan Meyer Awards - the Anti-MVPs

Now that the World Series is over, everyone will be focusing on off season awards. The BBWAA will have theirs. The BBA will have theirs and ...

+ Read more »